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The USDA’s September report projects larger U.S. rice supplies for 2025/26, driven by higher beginning stocks, imports, and production, while exports and domestic use are reduced. Beginning stocks rose 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million, the highest since 1987. Production increased slightly despite a lower yield of 7,559 pounds per acre. Total exports are lowered due to uncompetitive prices and slow sales, pushing ending stocks up to 53.4 million cwt. The season-average farm price drops $1 to $13.20 per cwt. Globally, rice supplies and stocks rise, while trade remains steady, reflecting mixed production changes across major exporting countries.

* U.S. rice supplies for 2025/26 projected higher due to bigger stocks, imports, and production.

* Beginning stocks rose 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million, largest since 1987.

* Total exports lowered 3 million cwt due to uncompetitive prices.

* Ending stocks forecast jumps to 53.4 million cwt; season-average price drops to $13.20.

* Global rice supplies and stocks increase; trade nearly unchanged.

The U.S. rice market outlook for 2025/26 points to a significant rise in supplies, driven by higher beginning stocks, imports, and slightly increased production. According to the NASS Rice Stocks report released on August 20, beginning stocks climbed 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million, marking the largest inventories since 1987. Production is projected at 208.8 million cwt, up 0.3 million from last month, despite a lower average yield of 7,559 pounds per acre, as indicated by the September Crop Production report.

Lower export expectations are weighing on U.S. rice prices. Total exports are reduced by 3 million cwt to 94.0 million, largely in the long-grain segment, due to uncompetitive pricing and a slow pace of sales. Domestic use is also trimmed slightly, further supporting higher ending stocks projected at 53.4 million cwt, up 8.7 million from last month’s forecast. Consequently, the 2025/26 season-average farm price is lowered to $13.20 per cwt, down $1 across all rice classes.

On the global front, rice supplies are also rising, reaching a record 729.5 million tons. Increased beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production in some countries. World trade remains nearly unchanged, with higher exports from Burma offset by declines from Pakistan and other exporters. Global consumption is marginally higher at 542.2 million tons, with India’s demand rising slightly, partially offset by reductions in Burma. Ending stocks globally are projected at 187.3 million tons, supported mainly by the U.S. and Pakistan.

Finally, rising U.S. and global rice supplies amid weak export demand are pushing ending stocks higher and prices lower, suggesting continued market pressure for 2025/26.

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