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The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 shows lower production and ending stocks, with output falling 2% to 13.9 million bales due to reduced yields in the Delta and larger harvested areas in the Southwest. Ending stocks drop 7% to 4.2 million bales, while the season-average farm price rises to 61 cents per pound. Globally, production declines slightly after reductions in the U.S., India, Argentina, and Turkey, despite higher output for China. Increased consumption and lower stocks lead to a global stocks-to-use ratio below 63%, indicating tighter supply conditions worldwide.

Key Highlights
* U.S. cotton production cut 2% to 13.9 million bales
* U.S. ending stocks fall 7% to 4.2 million bales
* National average yield declines 8% due to Delta conditions
* Global production slightly lower despite higher Chinese output
* Global stocks-to-use ratio drops below 63%, signaling tighter supply

The January update for the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced production and ending stocks, while beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports remain unchanged. Total U.S. production is estimated at 13.9 million bales, down more than 2% from the previous month, primarily due to lower yields in the Delta region. The national average yield fell 8% to 856 pounds per acre, reflecting Delta losses and the impact of larger harvested areas in the Southwest. Ending stocks are consequently reduced by 7% to 4.2 million bales, representing 30.4% of disappearance. The season-average farm price is projected higher at 61 cents per pound, reflecting tighter supplies.

Globally, the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower production, higher consumption, and reduced ending stocks compared to December. While China’s cotton output is raised by 1 million bales, this is more than offset by reductions for India, the U.S., Argentina, and Turkey, leaving world production down by over 350,000 bales. Global consumption is up by more than 300,000 bales, driven by higher Chinese demand and partially offset by lower use in Turkey and Nicaragua. Cotton trade remains nearly unchanged, as increased imports by India are largely offset by declines for Turkey and Nicaragua.

As a result of reduced production and higher consumption, global ending stocks are lowered by 1.5 million bales, pushing the global stocks-to-use ratio below 63%. The tighter supply-demand balance suggests potential price support for cotton markets amid constrained inventories.

Finally, lower U.S. and global cotton production, combined with higher consumption and reduced stocks, point to a tighter market for 2025/26, likely supporting prices in the coming season.

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