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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.97% at Rs144,299, supported by cautious safe-haven buying as investors assessed mixed signals surrounding potential U.S.-Iran negotiations while awaiting a series of key U.S. labour market reports for fresh direction on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Market participants remain focused on upcoming JOLTS job openings, ADP employment data and Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which could influence expectations for monetary policy. Traders are currently pricing in around a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, while New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to tighten policy further if inflation fails to ease. Geopolitical uncertainty also remained in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated talks with Iran were underway, although Tehran denied any negotiations. Physical gold demand presented a mixed picture across major consuming nations. In India, buying remained subdued as consumers awaited clearer price direction despite discounts narrowing to $44 per ounce from $56 last week. In contrast, stronger yuan-supported demand lifted Chinese premiums to $5-$8 per ounce. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, valued at nearly $1.2 trillion. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported India's June-quarter net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes, while domestic demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained broadly steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, with robust central bank purchases of 289 tonnes offsetting ETF outflows of 45 tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 0.87% while prices advanced sharply. Gold finds immediate support at Rs143,575, followed by Rs142,855, whereas resistance is placed at Rs144,805. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs145,315, indicating that bullish momentum may continue if key resistance levels are successfully breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142855-145315.

* Gold nudged higher as investors weighed mixed signals on potential U.S.-Iran talks.

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as tomorrow.

* Trump says Iran talks under way but Tehran denies

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply higher by 2.25% at Rs221,615, supported by improved market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that peace talks with Iran would resume, reducing geopolitical tensions and pushing crude oil prices lower. Easing energy prices helped soften inflation concerns, while investors also shifted their attention to a series of key U.S. labour market reports, including the upcoming non-farm payrolls data, for further clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, markets continue to price in nearly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September following hawkish dissent from three policymakers. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter, below expectations, while the PCE price index declined 0.1% in June, indicating easing inflationary pressures. Market fundamentals remained mixed. The CFTC reported that COMEX silver speculative net long positions declined by 1,614 contracts to 8,387 contracts, reflecting some reduction in bullish positioning. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. In India, silver imports dropped sharply after tighter government restrictions and higher import duties. May imports declined 87% in value and 94% in volume year-on-year to just 33 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The government has also increased import duties on gold and silver to 15%, aiming to reduce precious metal imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. From a technical perspective, silver witnessed significant short covering, with open interest declining 4.86% while prices advanced strongly. Immediate support is seen at Rs219,105, followed by Rs216,600, while resistance is placed at Rs223,155. A decisive breakout above this level could open the door for further gains towards Rs224,700, indicating that the near-term technical bias remains positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 216600-224700.

* Silver climbed amid easing concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook.

* Fed's Williams expects inflation to ease

* Traders currently price in a 65% chance of a rate hike in September after a divided Fed maintained the status quo.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 5.64% to settle at Rs7,214, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Market sentiment improved after Qatar confirmed that a draft proposal to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations was being circulated, while U.S. President Donald Trump described the proposal as Tehran’s final opportunity for a diplomatic agreement and expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon. Although Iran denied holding direct talks with the United States, it confirmed that discussions with Oman to improve shipping through the strategic waterway were progressing. Additional supply-side support came as Turkey and Iraq extended a key oil pipeline agreement, Kazakhstan restored crude flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and OPEC+ approved a 188,000 barrels per day production increase for September, completing the rollback of voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023. Fundamental data remained mixed despite the sharp price decline. The CFTC reported that WTI crude oil speculative net long positions increased by 28,159 contracts to 106,507 contracts, reflecting continued bullish positioning among money managers. U.S. crude production declined around 2% in May to 13.71 million barrels per day, while exports reached another record high of 5.73 million barrels per day. The latest EIA report showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, gasoline inventories rose by 7,000 barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.1 million barrels, indicating adequate fuel supplies despite strong refinery utilization of 97.2%. From a technical perspective, crude oil remained under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 12.72%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs6,980, followed by Rs6,747, while resistance is placed at Rs7,653. A sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs8,093, although the current technical structure continues to favour a cautious near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6747-8093.

* Crude oil dropped as hopes for renewed diplomacy between the US and Iran eased concerns over supply disruptions.

* Trump said his proposal for talks represents Tehran’s final opportunity to reach a deal.

* Iran, however, denied that any direct talks with the US are underway, though it said discussions with Oman aimed at increasing shipping.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 3.21% to settle at Rs255.9, pressured by record U.S. production, lower flows to LNG export facilities and comfortable storage levels. Output across the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 110.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, matching the record monthly high reached in July. Although weather forecasts continue to indicate above-normal temperatures through mid-August, supporting demand for air conditioning and gas-fired power generation, the impact was outweighed by abundant supply. Around 40% of U.S. electricity generation is produced from natural gas-fired plants, while total gas demand, including exports, is projected to increase from 112.6 bcfd this week to 114.4 bcfd next week. However, LNG export flows have eased to 16.0 bcfd due to maintenance work at several export terminals, including the Freeport LNG facility in Texas. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed picture. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended July 24, below market expectations of 35 bcf. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.084 trillion cubic feet, remaining 1% below year-ago levels but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, highlighting relatively comfortable supply conditions. The EIA also expects both production and demand to reach record levels in the coming years, forecasting dry gas output at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are projected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. From a technical perspective, natural gas remained under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 21.61%, indicating fresh short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at Rs251.2, followed by Rs246.4, while resistance is seen at Rs263.6. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs271.2, although the prevailing technical structure continues to favour a cautious near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 246.4-271.2.

* Natural gas slid on record output, lower flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures so far this summer.

* Speculators lifted bearish positions to highest since March, CFTC data showed

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.32% higher at Rs1,365, supported by tightening global inventories and improving near-term supply fundamentals despite mixed signals on global demand. Market sentiment remained positive as declining stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses highlighted tightening availability outside the United States. LME copper inventories fell to 238,350 tonnes from around 400,000 tonnes in April, while SHFE stocks declined sharply to approximately 69,300 tonnes from more than 430,000 tonnes in March. The cash LME copper contract also traded at a $40 per tonne premium over the three-month contract, the highest in seven months, reflecting tight nearby supply conditions. Meanwhile, oil prices remained stable as conflicting statements from the United States and Iran kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated. Fundamental data presented a mixed outlook. COMEX copper inventories continued to rise, reaching 717,314 short tonnes, while China's refined copper imports climbed to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, supported by strong domestic demand and lower local supply. On the production front, Glencore increased first-half copper output by 15% to 397,000 tonnes, while First Quantum Minerals reported a 5% year-on-year rise in Zambia production to 184,929 tonnes. However, China's manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low in July, raising concerns over industrial demand, while the country's Politburo refrained from announcing broad-based economic stimulus. The International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, compared with a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, indicating an improving supply balance. From a technical perspective, copper remained under fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing 2.04%, reflecting new long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs1,353.3, followed by Rs1,341.5, while resistance is seen at Rs1,373.3. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs1,381.5, suggesting that the near-term technical bias remains constructive.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1341.5-1381.5.

* Copper gains as LME, Shanghai inventories fall

* LME three-month copper rose to breach $14,000/ton for the first time since June 3.

* Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell to 238,350 tons, down from around 400,000 tons in April.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 0.38% higher at Rs387.45, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and improved market sentiment following lower crude oil prices, which eased concerns over global economic growth and industrial demand. Supply-side concerns remained prominent as heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China raised the risk of disruptions to mining operations, smelters and transportation networks. The cash LME zinc contract continued to trade in strong backwardation, with the cash premium over the three-month contract near $60 per tonne, reflecting limited nearby availability. The August contract premium also remained above $63 per tonne, highlighting persistent tightness in the physical market. Fundamental developments presented a mixed outlook. A mine in southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes in August, while a central China smelter plans routine maintenance that could lower refined output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. However, China's refined zinc production increased 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, while zinc concentrate production rose 9.4% year-on-year, indicating healthy smelting activity. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories edged 0.6% higher, suggesting adequate domestic availability. Among major producers, Glencore reported a 21% year-on-year decline in first-half zinc production to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden and MMG also posted lower output. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported the global refined zinc surplus narrowed to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, indicating improving market balance. From a technical perspective, zinc witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.41% while prices advanced modestly. Immediate support is placed at Rs386.1, followed by Rs384.7, while resistance is seen at Rs388.9. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs390.3, keeping the near-term technical outlook cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 384.7-390.3.

* Zinc prices gained amid tight near-term supply conditions and lower oil prices

* The cash LME zinc contract is trading roughly $60 a ton higher than the three-month forward, indicating near-term tightness.

* Available LME zinc stocks stand at 73,850 metric tons, about two days of global consumption.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled marginally higher by 0.07% at Rs344.8, supported by ongoing supply constraints and concerns over production disruptions, although gains remained limited by improving global supply prospects. Market sentiment was supported by a sharp decline in inventories, with stocks in LME-registered warehouses falling to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century. Heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province, a major aluminium-producing region, also raised concerns over potential disruptions to smelter operations, hydropower generation and transportation. In addition, Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. Fundamental developments remained mixed. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf production falling by nearly one-third due to lower operating rates. Production outside China dropped 6.7% year-on-year in July, although daily average output recovered 1.6% month-on-month as production resumed in the Middle East and Iceland, alongside capacity expansions in Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, China's primary aluminium production increased 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tonnes in June. China's unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while first-half exports rose 16.3% year-on-year to 3.4 million tonnes, reflecting strong overseas shipments despite a 30% export tariff on primary aluminium. Imports, however, declined 17.4% year-on-year as weaker import arbitrage reduced inflows. From a technical perspective, aluminium witnessed fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing 10.11%, indicating new long positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at Rs342.9, followed by Rs341.1, while resistance is seen at Rs347.9. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs351.1, keeping the near-term technical outlook moderately positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 341.1-351.1.

* Aluminium gains amid ongoing supply constraints and slower production.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

* Stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell further to 267,800, the lowest level seen this century.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 0.71% higher at Rs22,552, supported by tight spot availability, lower carry-forward stocks and concerns that uneven monsoon rainfall could affect the ongoing crop. Market sentiment remained firm as traders continued to assess the potential impact of El Niño on sowing and crop development. Although recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across major turmeric-growing regions, participants remain cautious as sustained rainfall will be crucial for healthy crop growth. The decline in carry-forward stocks accumulated over the past few years has also tightened overall market availability, providing additional support to prices despite seasonal arrivals. Fundamental factors remained mixed. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, reflecting tighter supplies. At the same time, turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, as elevated prices encourage farmers to expand cultivation during the current Kharif season. Good rainfall over the past week is expected to accelerate sowing activity, although the pace will continue to depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall. Selling pressure from farmers liquidating stocks during the harvest season limited gains, while demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers continued to provide support for premium-quality supplies. India's turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May, while cumulative exports during April-May remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes, supported by strong demand from China, Oman, Yemen and Italy. From a technical perspective, turmeric witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 0.51% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs22,364, followed by Rs22,178, while resistance is seen at Rs22,758. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs22,966, suggesting that the near-term technical bias remains cautiously positive despite weather-related uncertainties.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 22178-22966.

* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21141.15 Rupees gained by 1.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.82% to settle at Rs21,085, as increased farmer selling and improved arrivals weighed on market sentiment. Producers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for the ongoing Kharif sowing season, while favourable weather across north-west India accelerated harvesting, drying and market arrivals. Rising stocks in NCDEX warehouses also reduced the urgency for spot purchases by traders, with large spice processors preferring hand-to-mouth buying instead of building inventories. Expectations of better production from competing origins such as Turkey and Syria further pressured export premiums and limited buying interest. Despite the decline, downside remained restricted by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. Daily arrivals at key markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while export-grade residue-compliant stocks are becoming increasingly scarce. Crop quality has also been affected by blight disease in parts of Gujarat, reducing the availability of high-quality produce. European and North American buyers continued to source premium lots, although demand from China remained irregular and price-sensitive. Domestic processors also maintained cautious procurement strategies, limiting purchases to immediate requirements. Production estimates indicate India's jeera output could decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to reduced sowing. Meanwhile, adverse weather has lowered China's production estimates to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are also expected to report moderate production levels. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative exports during April-May fell 22% despite strong growth in shipments to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen and Kenya. From a technical perspective, jeera witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.74% alongside weaker prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs20,970, followed by Rs20,850, while resistance is seen at Rs21,280. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs21,470, although the near-term technical outlook remains cautious amid continued selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20850-21470.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20945.1 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

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