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Gold

Gold settled down 0.39% at Rs1,50,710, pressured by expectations of further US Federal Reserve tightening as stronger economic activity and rising inflation pressures supported a hawkish policy outlook. US business activity reached a more than five-year high in September, while supply constraints contributed to higher prices. New York Fed President John Williams indicated that another rate hike before year-end could be appropriate, increasing pressure on bullion despite continued structural support. Standard Chartered noted that official-sector demand remains firm, while Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, although warning that additional Fed hikes could slow near-term appreciation. Under a more hawkish scenario involving three further rate hikes, Goldman Sachs estimated gold could correct toward $4,070 before recovering to around $4,200 by end-2026 as central-bank purchases provide support. Physical market flows remained mixed, with Swiss gold exports rising 65% month-on-month in August, led by shipments to the UK, which reached 102.1 tonnes, the highest monthly level in seven years. Shipments to China increased 20% to 26.1 tonnes, while deliveries to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes. China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong rose to 58.491 tonnes from 56.193 tonnes in July, while its central bank extended gold purchases to the sixth consecutive month in August and maintained a 22-month buying streak. Indian demand remained subdued as buyers awaited lower prices, while Chinese premiums stayed supported by investment demand. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 11.61% to 5,807 while prices fell Rs589. Gold is currently finding support near Rs1,50,110, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,49,510. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs1,51,330, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,51,950.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149510-151950.

* Gold prices drifted lower as expectations that the Fed could tighten policy further weighed.

* Inflation pressures raise prospect of Fed rate hike

* Goldman Sachs lowers end-2026 gold price forecasts to $4,650 (from $4,900) expecting fed rate hikes to delay the gold rally

Silver

Silver settled down 1.02% at Rs2,33,482 as a firm US dollar and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on the precious metal. Strong US economic data and hawkish remarks from several Fed officials strengthened the outlook for tighter monetary policy. The S&P Global US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, marking the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021, while Services PMI increased to 58.7 from 56.5 and Manufacturing PMI accelerated to 56.7 from 53.1. Fed officials highlighted persistent supply-side inflation and strong demand, with several indicating that further rate hikes may be required to contain inflation risks. Uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and trade concerns also supported the dollar. Despite near-term pressure, silver fundamentals remain structurally supportive, with the global market heading toward a sixth consecutive year of deficit. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus estimated that 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even as total demand is forecast to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global supply is projected to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.47% to 15,408 while prices declined Rs2,413. Silver is finding support near Rs2,31,320, and a break below this level could expose Rs2,29,160. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs2,35,615, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs2,37,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 229160-237750.

* Silver dropped as the U.S. dollar stayed firm amid bets the Federal Reserve will announce another hike in interest rate this year.

* Federal Reserve's Williams said another rate hike before year-end would be reasonable.

* Strong PMI data and hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials including Fed Chair Warsh pushed up the dollar.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled up 3.88% at Rs9,167 as escalating Middle East tensions clouded prospects for a diplomatic resolution and raised concerns over prolonged disruptions to regional supply. Iran’s Supreme Leader’s military adviser warned that the conflict could expand from the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea toward the Indian Ocean if further attacks occur, weakening optimism around US-Iran discussions. Iran’s President said Tehran remained prepared to resume negotiations but would not respond to threats. Bank of America raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast to $95 per barrel from $83, citing prolonged geopolitical tensions as its base case, while warning that persistent disruptions into spring 2027 could push front-month Brent above $150. Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported daily losses of around 130,000 barrels after closure of the Sharara-Zawiya pipeline. US crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended September 18, against expectations for a 641,000-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks rose 2.3 million barrels to 23.7 million barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 519,000 barrels per day, with utilisation falling 2.8 percentage points to 94%. Gasoline inventories declined 1.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels to 107.4 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 284.6 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982, amid planned releases. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could tighten the market further if Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 15.4% to 13,865 while prices gained Rs342. The market is finding support near Rs8,849, and a break below this level could expose Rs8,530. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs9,398, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs9,628.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8530-9628.

* Crude oil gained as heightened Middle East tensions clouded prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

* Iranian President Pezeshkian told UNGA that Tehran would never surrender to US pressure, dashing near-term de-escalation hopes

* New vessel attack reported in Strait of Hormuz per UKMTO added to geopolitical risk premium amid ongoing Iran conflict

Natural gas

Natural gas settled up 7.57% at Rs325.3, supported by forecasts for seasonally cooler weather over the next two weeks, which is expected to increase heating demand, alongside lower daily production and stronger flows toward liquefied natural gas exports. US Lower 48 gas output averaged 112.9 bcfd so far in September, above the August monthly record of 112.2 bcfd, although daily production was expected to decline to an 11-week low of 109.8 bcfd due mainly to weaker output from Louisiana and Pennsylvania. Natural gas storage increased by 44 Bcf in the week ended September 11, below market expectations of 49 Bcf, last year’s 87 Bcf build and the five-year average injection of 74 Bcf. Total working gas rose to 3.298 Tcf, with inventories 3.6% below year-earlier levels but 3.7% above the five-year average. Strong summer cooling demand had reduced the earlier storage surplus, which reached 7.7% above normal in April. LSEG expects Lower 48 gas demand including exports to decline from 107.8 bcfd this week to 104.1 bcfd next week. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting demand for US gas. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 22.64% to 33,807 while prices gained Rs22.9. Natural gas is finding support near Rs308.7, and a break below this level could expose Rs292.1. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs334.4, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs343.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 292.1-343.5.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for seasonally cool weather, a drop in daily output and an increase in flows to LNG exports.

* Daily Lower 48 gas output drops to 109.8 bcfd on Wednesday

* Storage surplus seen narrowing to 3.0% above five-year norm before EIA data

Copper

Copper settled up 0.52% at Rs1,423.05, supported by concerns over supply disruptions at major Chilean mines and signs of tightening nearby availability. Operations at BHP’s Escondida mine were suspended following a fatal worker accident, adding to supply risks. The LME cash copper premium over the three-month contract widened to $107.5 per tonne from zero a week earlier, reaching its highest level since September 1 and signalling stronger nearby market tightness. Chilean copper output fell 9.4% in July, with adverse weather in the north and maintenance affecting major operations. Codelco production declined 5% year-on-year to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida output dropped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Collahuasi production increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Cochilco expects Chilean copper production to decline around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. Peru provided some offset, with July copper production rising 3.7% year-on-year to 236,515 tonnes and January-July output increasing 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories fell 15.9% from the previous Friday, reinforcing concerns over available stocks. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from a 74,000-tonne deficit in June, while January-July showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared with 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. July refined output stood at 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 16.44% to 7,467 while prices gained Rs7.35. Copper is finding support near Rs1,413.8, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,404.4. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,429.8, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs1,436.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1404.4-1436.4.

* Copper prices gained amid worries over supply disruptions at major Chilean mines.

* The premium of LME cash copper contract over 3M widened to $107.5 a ton, highest since September 1, signalling supply tightness.

* The global refined copper market showed a 51,000 metric tons deficit in July – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc settled up 2.36% at Rs426.75, supported by tightening supply concerns after Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its loss-making Budel zinc smelting operations in the Netherlands. China’s zinc production contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026, declining 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored zinc inventories also fell 1.9% from the previous Friday, indicating some improvement in domestic stock conditions. Supply concerns were further reinforced by Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production, which declined 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, while Boliden reported zinc concentrate production down 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter added to concerns over potential supply disruptions. However, upside remained limited as elevated zinc prices weakened demand and discouraged Chinese buyers, while expectations of increased Chinese export deliveries to the LME created additional pressure. China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to an appropriately loose monetary policy, stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and ample liquidity, which could provide broader support to industrial activity. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. However, the market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of 2026, compared with a 74,000-tonne surplus during the corresponding period of 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 17.42% to 2,170 while prices gained Rs9.85. Zinc is finding support near Rs419.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs412.1. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs430.8, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs434.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 412.1-434.7.

* Zinc gained after Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its loss-making Budel zinc smelting operations.

* China’s zinc output contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026, ending a prolonged period of growth.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.9% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled up 0.3% at Rs347.15, supported by tight physical supply conditions and disruptions to regional production amid the US-Iran conflict. GCC aluminium production fell 44% year-on-year in July, while LME inventories remained near a 36-year low and Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored stocks declined 4.7% from the previous Friday, highlighting constrained availability. Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised production rate of 1.3 million tonnes, 19% below pre-war capacity, while Alba had shut production lines 1, 2 and 3 following the outbreak of the conflict and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.172 million tonnes in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Alcoa also reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery. However, upside remained capped by expectations of improving supply as several smelters restart curtailed capacity and pursue expansions. China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, with January-August output rising 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. At the current pace, annualised production would exceed China’s 45-million-tonne capacity ceiling. Chinese unwrought aluminium and product exports declined to 626,000 tonnes in August from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes, potentially easing Gulf-related shortages. Japanese aluminium stocks at three major ports rose 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August, adding another supply-side counterweight. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 14.66% to 3,073 while prices gained Rs1.05. Aluminium is finding support near Rs345.6, and a break below this level could expose Rs344. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs348.2, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs349.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344-349.2.

* Aluminium gains amid tight supply conditions.

* Global aluminium output falls 1.7% year on year in August – IAI

* The US-Iran war has disrupted aluminum supply from the region, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled up 1.11% at Rs20,584, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, concerns over deficient rainfall and fears that El Nino conditions could affect the crop currently being sown. Lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key growing regions has increased concerns over upcoming production, while carryforward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years. Industry estimates place carryforward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the availability buffer. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields and provide further price support. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate weather concerns, while reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have improved water availability for the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement, creating a softer undertone as traders assess the potential for better production. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has added near-term pressure, while tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots and discounts for commercial-grade turmeric. At the same time, growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers is supporting compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July 2025, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Turkey imports surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs20,222.7, down 0.25%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.41% to 36,920 while prices gained Rs226. Turmeric is finding support near Rs20,402, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,218. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs20,718, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs20,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20218-20850.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of lower overall output for the upcoming harvest.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* India’s turmeric exports declined 10% YoY to 13,489 tonnes in July-2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20222.7 Rupees dropped by -0.25 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up 1.34% at Rs22,325, supported by a rapid tightening in the availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with export-grade high-purity supplies shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals across major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantities. However, upside remained limited as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks for cash flow ahead of the next season, while favourable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating deliveries. NCDEX warehouse stocks have continued to build, reducing urgency among traders, while large spice grinders remain cautious and largely follow hand-to-mouth procurement rather than bulk buying. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing some support. Expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria are limiting Indian export premiums, while domestic processors and stockists remain reluctant to undertake aggressive forward coverage. Current estimates indicate Indian cumin production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Outside India, adverse weather has lowered China’s production estimate to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are estimated at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, Libya rose 450% to 341 tonnes and Georgia increased 37% to 81 tonnes, but cumulative exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs21,903.2, down 0.15%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.67% to 7,002 while prices gained Rs295. Jeera is finding support near Rs22,060, and a break below this level could expose Rs21,800. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs22,500, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs22,680.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21800-22680.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21903.2 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views