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Gold

Gold prices settled down 0.25% at Rs1,52,716, pressured by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve policymakers that reinforced expectations of higher interest rates for longer. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week, while policymakers including Alberto Musalem and Austan Goolsbee indicated further tightening may be required to contain inflation driven by strong demand and rising energy prices. Market expectations for a December rate hike increased to 90% from 80% last week. Despite monetary policy headwinds, gold continues to receive structural support from central-bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Standard Chartered highlighted firm official-sector demand, while Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, noting tighter policy may slow the rally rather than derail the longer-term trend. Goldman Sachs also warned that three additional rate hikes could push gold toward $4,070 before recovering toward $4,200 by end-2026 as central-bank purchases continue. Swiss gold exports surged 65% month on month in August, with shipments to the UK rising to 102.1 tonnes from 39.5 tonnes in July, while deliveries to China increased 20% to 26.1 tonnes. In contrast, shipments to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes as domestic demand remained subdued ahead of the festive buying season. China's central bank increased gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in August, extending its buying streak to 22 months. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remained under long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.01% to 7,257 contracts alongside a Rs378 fall in prices. Gold is currently finding support at Rs1,51,705, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs1,50,685. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,53,620, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,54,515.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150685-154515.

* Gold eased as hawkish signals from Fed policymakers reinforced market expectations interest rates will stay higher for longer.

* More rate hikes likely needed to quell inflation, says Fed's Musalem

* US-Iran talks in focus as UN General Assembly gathers

Silver

Silver prices settled up 0.24% at Rs2,39,888, supported by low-level buying after recent pressure, although upside remained capped by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding persistent inflation risks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said strong demand may be contributing to inflation alongside higher energy prices, tariffs and supply shocks, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari highlighted elevated inflation as a key policy concern. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates nearly a 90% probability of at least one US interest rate hike this year, keeping monetary policy expectations a major influence on precious metals. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring discussions between US and Gulf leaders at the United Nations General Assembly regarding potential measures to increase Middle East oil supplies. As of end-July 2026, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 28,213 tonnes, up 0.5% month on month, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the silver market to record a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the potential for renewed liquidity constraints. The global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Total supply is projected to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.48% to 13,006 contracts alongside a Rs571 increase in prices. Silver is finding support at Rs2,36,880, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of Rs2,33,865. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs2,41,720, while a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward Rs2,43,545.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 233865-243545.

* Silver gained on low level buying after pressure seen as Fed officials warn that strong demand is fuelling upside inflation risks.

* Fed’s Goolsbee said, “Strong demand may be adding to inflation along with energy, tariff, other supply shocks.”

* Fed’s Kashkari also said high inflation remains a key concern for policymakers

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled down 2.18% at Rs8,643, pressured by improving prospects for Middle East supply after Iran signaled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States meets its demands, while Saudi Arabia is set to resume exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. A reopening of the Strait could ease concerns over prolonged disruptions to global oil flows, although geopolitical risks remain significant. Meanwhile, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks declined to 284.6 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982, as part of an agreement to release 172 million barrels. Libya’s Sharara oilfield, with production capacity of around 300,000 barrels per day, also experienced a partial production reduction amid recurring operational and political disruptions. US commercial crude inventories declined 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels for the week ended September 11, compared with expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories fell 342,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined 256,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization decreased 1 percentage point to 96.8%. Gasoline inventories increased 794,000 barrels to 207.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million barrels. Net US crude imports declined 1.18 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the International Energy Agency warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could delay the normalization of regional supply flows into 2027. The IEA also highlighted shrinking inventory buffers and stretched refining capacity as risks to market stability. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.07% to 12,343 contracts alongside a Rs193 fall in prices. Crude oil is finding support at Rs8,446, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of Rs8,248. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,925, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs9,206.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8248-9206.

* Crude oil fell as prospects for Gulf supplies improved, ‌with Iran signaling it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

* Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz within seven days if US lifts blockade

* Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982

Natural gas prices settled up 3.52% at Rs282.5, supported by a decline in daily US production and stronger flows toward liquefied natural gas exports, although overall supply remains elevated. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 gas output at 113.0 billion cubic feet per day in September, up from the August monthly record of 112.2 bcfd, while daily production was expected to fall to an 11-week low of 109.8 bcfd due mainly to declines in Louisiana and North Dakota. US natural gas inventories increased 44 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 11, below market expectations of 49 bcf, the 87 bcf build recorded a year earlier and the five-year average injection of 74 bcf. Working gas stocks reached 3.298 trillion cubic feet, around 3.6% below year-earlier levels but 3.7% above the five-year average. Hot summer weather has increased gas-fired power demand, with natural gas accounting for around 40% of US power generation, reducing the storage surplus from 7.7% above normal in April to an estimated 3.0% above normal by September 18. The US Energy Information Administration expects dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting demand despite maintenance-related adjustments at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 47.61% to 13,627 contracts while prices increased Rs9.6. Natural gas is finding support at Rs273.8, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of Rs265.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs287.4, while a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward Rs292.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.1-292.3.

* Natural gas jumped on a drop in daily output and an increase in flows to LNG exports so far this month.

* Daily production seen dropping to 11-week low, led by Louisiana and North Dakota

* Storage surplus likely narrowed to 3.0% before Thursday's federal inventory report

Copper

Copper prices settled up 0.19% at Rs1,415.15, supported by expectations of a seasonal pickup in Chinese demand and renewed speculative buying ahead of the country’s upcoming holidays. Expectations for inventory replenishment before the September 25 holiday and the October 1–7 holiday period provided additional support, while traders also awaited the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Yangshan copper premium reached $124 per ton last week, its highest in nearly four years, before easing to $119, indicating firm Chinese demand for imported copper. LME-registered warehouse stocks declined to 133,725 tonnes following 9,600 tonnes of fresh cancellations in Asia, while the LME cash copper premium widened to $26 per ton from an $86 discount on September 14. Supply concerns were reinforced by Chilean production data, with Codelco output falling 5% year on year in July to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida production dropped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes. Chile’s overall copper output declined 9.4% in July due to severe northern weather and maintenance, with Cochilco expecting production to fall around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. Peru’s copper production increased 3.7% year on year in July to 236,515 tonnes, while January-July output rose 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half surplus reached 131,000 tonnes. China’s unwrought copper imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August, with January-August imports down 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.98% to 7,277 contracts while prices gained Rs2.7. Copper is finding support at Rs1,409.4, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,403.5, while resistance is placed at Rs1,420.6 and a sustained move above could target Rs1,425.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1403.5-1425.9.

* Copper prices rose as expectations of a seasonal pickup in demand in China sustained speculative buying.

* Renewed speculative demand has pushed copper higher after funds cut their net long positions in Comex copper futures.

* The Yangshan copper finished last week at $124 a ton, its highest in nearly four years, although it eased to $119 on Monday.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled down 0.39% at Rs434.1, pressured by elevated prices that weakened demand and discouraged buying in China, while expectations of increased Chinese export deliveries to the LME added pressure. The decline was also influenced by a sharp pullback in LME copper amid changing tariff expectations, which weighed on the broader base metals complex. China’s zinc production contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August, declining 1.8% year on year to 639,000 tonnes, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored zinc inventories increased 0.6% from the previous Friday, while rising Chinese exports could improve supply availability in other major markets. Supply concerns remained evident outside China, with Glencore reporting own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 99,600 tonnes or 21% year on year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter on quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter also raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. Tight inventories outside China kept the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract elevated at $124 per tonne, while disruptions at several mines and restricted Iranian ore shipments due to Middle East tensions added to concentrate availability concerns. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months of 2026 still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes during the same period of 2025. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 12.14% to 1,570 contracts alongside a Rs1.7 fall in prices. Zinc is finding support at Rs431.9, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of Rs429.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs437.3, while a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward Rs440.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 429.6-440.4.

* Zinc prices dropped as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers China.

* China’s zinc output contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled down 0.21% at Rs348.25, pressured by expectations of improving supply as several smelters restart and ramp up previously curtailed capacity, while expansion projects could further increase availability. However, downside remained limited by tight physical supply, with LME inventories near a 36-year low and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declining 7.7% from the previous Friday. Aluminium supply from the Gulf Cooperation Council region was disrupted by the US-Iran war, with regional production falling 44% year on year in July, while Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised rate of 1.3 million tonnes, 19% below pre-war capacity. China’s aluminium exports declined to 626,000 tonnes in August from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports increased 16.7% year on year to 4.67 million tonnes. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports rose 22.7% month on month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August, indicating improving availability in the region. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year on year in July to 6.16 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year on year, supported by strong smelter margins despite the national capacity ceiling. January-August Chinese output rose 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes, implying an annualised pace above the 45-million-tonne capacity limit. The combination of higher Chinese production and export potential could improve global availability, although geopolitical disruptions and low exchange inventories remain supportive factors. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 19.85% to 2,136 contracts alongside a Rs0.75 fall in prices. Aluminium is finding support at Rs346.7, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of Rs345. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs350.4, while a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward Rs352.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345-352.4.

* Aluminum dropped as supply outlook could improve as several smelters restart and ramp up previously curtailed capacity

* Japan's August aluminium stocks up 22.7% m/m

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled down 0.65% at Rs20,086 due to profit booking after the recent rally, as improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over crop damage, although the overall supply situation remains tight. Earlier gains were supported by deficient rainfall, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns over possible El Nino effects on the crop currently under cultivation. Carry-forward stocks have declined substantially, with industry estimates placing inventories near 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the availability buffer. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could still affect yields, while steady but cautious stockist buying is helping manage immediate supply pressure. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall, and improving crop conditions have reduced crop failure concerns. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also improved, ensuring water availability during the vegetative phase. However, farmer selling during the peak harvest window has increased market pressure, while expectations of improved production have created a softer undertone. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejections of non-Integrated Pest Management compliant lots and discounts for commercial-grade turmeric, although rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July 2025, but cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes, Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, and Switzerland jumped 3,263% to 27 tonnes. Nizamabad spot prices ended at Rs20,003.25, down 0.64%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.86% to 36,560 contracts while prices declined Rs132. Turmeric is finding support at Rs19,944, and a sustained break below this level could test Rs19,804, while resistance is placed at Rs20,236 and a move above could lead prices toward Rs20,388.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19804-20388.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact.

* Downside further seen limited due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20003.25 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled down 0.30% at Rs21,770 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season, while favorable weather in North-West India allowed harvesting and drying operations to finish earlier, accelerating market arrivals. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also built steadily, reducing urgency among traders for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious on bulk purchases and prefer waiting for lower price levels. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with export-grade high-purity supplies declining faster than overall physical availability. Arrivals at major trading centers including Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering significantly. Blight disease outbreaks in key Gujarat producing areas have also affected crop quality and harvestable quantities. European and North American buyers have returned to the market, particularly seeking residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing selective demand support. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, who are largely following hand-to-mouth purchasing and lean inventory replenishment rather than aggressive bulk buying. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists have reduced forward coverage. Current estimates indicate Indian jeera production may decline to 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Outside India, China production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan production is projected at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, but China exports declined 88% to 710 tonnes. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs21,541.6, down 0.07%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.01% to 7,593 contracts alongside a Rs65 fall in prices. Jeera is finding support at Rs21,680, and a break below could test Rs21,580, while resistance is placed at Rs21,860 and a move above could target Rs21,940.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21580-21940.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* However downside seen limited amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21541.6 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views