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Gold

Gold prices corrected sharply, settling down by 3.53% at 134,942, as investors booked profits and perceived geopolitical risks eased, dampening safe-haven demand. Sentiment weakened after US President Donald Trump indicated progress in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky toward a potential peace deal, although key territorial issues remain unresolved. Adding to pressure, US macro data stayed supportive, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims falling to 214,000, well below expectations, reinforcing confidence in the labor market. Markets continue to price two Fed rate cuts next year, with an 18.3% probability of a January cut, while Trump’s comments on keeping rates low have revived concerns over Federal Reserve independence. Physical market signals were mixed. Gold discounts in India widened to over six-month highs at up to $61 per ounce as elevated prices curbed retail demand, while discounts in China narrowed sharply to $15–$30 from last week’s five-year highs. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong surged 101.5% month-on-month to 16.16 tonnes in November, highlighting renewed buying interest. Central bank demand remained robust, with the PBoC extending its buying streak to 13 months and global central banks adding 53 tonnes in October. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 8% to 16,019 as prices fell 4,931. Support is seen at 132,675, below which prices may test 130,415. Resistance stands at 138,820, and a move above could trigger a rebound toward 142,705.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 130415-142705.

* Gold dropped as investors booked profits and a market perception of reduced geopolitical risks curbed safe-haven buying.

* President Trump stated that he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian Zelensky over a possible peace deal.

* US weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 214,000, compared to 224,000 in the previous reading.

Silver

Silver prices corrected sharply, settling down by 6.4% at 224,429, as profit-taking emerged after an extended end-of-year rally that had pushed prices to fresh record highs. Sentiment was further weighed by easing geopolitical risk perceptions following US President Donald Trump’s remarks that peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have made significant progress, although a final agreement may still take weeks. Additional pressure came after CME Group raised margin requirements for white metal futures by $3,000 for the March 2026 contract, taking margins to about $25,000, in an effort to curb excessive speculative activity following recent sharp rallies. Despite the correction, silver remains on track for an exceptional gain of nearly 180% in 2025, underpinned by speculative inflows, lingering supply disruptions after the October short squeeze, central-bank buying, strong ETF inflows, and expectations of further US monetary easing in 2026. Supply-side risks persist, with Chinese silver inventories falling to their lowest in a decade after record October exports of over 660 tonnes, while liquidity tightness remains evident in London markets. LBMA data showed silver holdings in London vaults rose 3.5% m/m to 27,187 tonnes in November. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.76% at 11,998 as prices fell 15,358. Support is seen at 213,225, below which prices may test 202,025. Resistance is placed at 244,900, and a breakout could open the path toward 265,375.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 202025-265375.

* Silver dropped pressured by profit-taking after an end-of-year rally that notched a fresh record.

* Markets assess geopolitics after Trump flags progress in Ukraine peace talks.

* CME Group increased margin requirements for futures on its exchanges by $3,000 for the March 2026 contract.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices firmed up, settling higher by 1.12% at 5,240, as escalating geopolitical tensions lifted risk premiums despite mixed inventory data. Unrest in the Middle East, including Saudi air strikes in Yemen and Iran’s declaration of a “full-scale war” posture against the US, Europe, and Israel, heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions from key producing regions. Sentiment was also influenced by diplomatic developments, with US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicating progress toward a peace framework, though unresolved issues remain. Adding to the demand outlook, China signaled plans to expand fiscal spending in 2026, reinforcing expectations of steady oil consumption growth. On the supply side, US inventory data was largely bearish. The EIA reported a 405,000-barrel rise in crude stocks to 424.8 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw, while Cushing inventories increased by 707,000 barrels. Refinery runs declined and utilization eased to 94.6%. Gasoline stocks surged by 2.86 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose modestly by 202,000 barrels. Net US crude imports climbed sharply to 2.47 million bpd. Globally, the IEA revised higher its oil demand growth outlook for 2025–26 and trimmed supply growth forecasts, narrowing the projected surplus. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 4.52% to 17,844 alongside a 58 price rise. Support is seen at 5,184, with further downside toward 5,127. Resistance is placed at 5,284, and a break above this level could test 5,327.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5127-5327.

* Crude oil rose as unrest in the Middle East, is fueling concerns over potential supply disruptions.

* China announced plans to expand fiscal spending in 2026, signaling continued support for economic growth, which could boost oil consumption.

* U.S. oil production is expected to hit a larger record this year than previously expected – EIA

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling up by 1.39% at 357.4, supported by forecasts of colder weather and a pickup in heating demand over the coming weeks. Meteorological models indicate a gradual cooling trend across the US through January 10, with Heating Degree Days rising from 377 to 398, still below the normal 449 but pointing toward stronger demand ahead. Reflecting this outlook, LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, to rise from 136.1 bcfd this week to 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks. On the supply side, US natural gas production remains robust, with average output in December climbing to a record 109.8 bcfd, exceeding November’s previous high. LNG export demand also stayed strong, with flows to major US export plants averaging 18.4 bcfd this month, above November’s record levels. Meanwhile, Russia’s gas production declined 3% year-on-year during January–November, adding a marginally supportive global backdrop. Storage data showed a withdrawal of 166 bcf for the week ended December 19, leaving inventories at 3,413 bcf, now 3.6% below last year and slightly under the five-year average, reinforcing tightening fundamentals. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 2.77% at 21,456 as prices rose 4.9. Support is seen at 345.8, with a break exposing 334.1, while resistance stands at 366.1, above which prices may test 374.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 334.1-374.7.

* Natural gas rose as forecasts pointed to colder weather and increased demand in the weeks ahead.

* Natural gas speculators decreased their net long positions by 75,292 contracts to a total of 164,467.

* Average gas demand in the lower 48 states, would rise from 136.1 bcfd to 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks.

Copper

Copper prices corrected sharply, settling down by 3.55% at 1,232.6, as traders booked profits after recent record highs. The pullback came despite an otherwise supportive macro and structural backdrop. The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years during Q3, driven by strong consumer spending, exports, and industrial activity, all of which underpin copper-intensive sectors. Structural demand remains robust, supported by accelerating investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grid upgrades, and AI-related infrastructure. Supply-side constraints persist following years of underinvestment, mine disruptions, and plans by China’s top smelters to cut output by over 10% in 2026 to address overcapacity and negative processing fees. On the data front, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of about 122,000 tonnes during the first ten months of 2025, even as apparent refined usage rose 5.5%, highlighting resilient demand. China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month in November, falling 2.51% to 427,000 tonnes as elevated prices curbed buying interest. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped 16.6% week-on-week, while rising Yangshan premiums, which reached $55 per tonne, point to tighter availability of imported material. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 5.1% at 12,410 as prices fell 45.35. Support is seen at 1,158.1, below which prices may test 1,083.6. Resistance stands near 1,350, and a breakout could extend gains toward 1,467.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1083.6-1467.4.

* Copper dropped on profit booking from record highs amid tight supply and robust US economic growth underpinned prices.

* China’s top smelters planning over a 10% output reduction in 2026 to address overcapacity.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 16.6%.

Zinc

Zinc prices corrected lower, settling down by 2.78% at 304.25, pressured by improving supply data from China and renewed concerns over domestic demand. China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, extending the strong expansion seen in recent months, although the growth pace moderated from October’s 17.3%. Sentiment was further weighed down by weak Chinese macro indicators, with factory output and retail sales growth slowing in November, alongside a deterioration in property investment and property sales by floor area, reinforcing demand-side caution. However, downside appears limited by emerging supply risks and inventory tightness. Several zinc mines in Central and Southwest China are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce zinc concentrate availability, including an estimated 700 metric tons of metal content loss in December. Zinc concentrate production is also projected to decline on a month-on-month basis. Reflecting these constraints, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 4.4% week-on-week. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tons in October, while the refined market posted a surplus of 76,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.58% to 5,295 as prices fell 8.7. Support is seen at 297.4, below which prices may test 290.6. Resistance stands at 316.6, and a move above could open the way toward 329.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 290.6-329.

* Zinc dropped as China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

* Pressure also seen dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices corrected sharply, settling lower by 3.57% at 290.2, as near-term sentiment was weighed down by rising inventories and steady output data. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 6.6% week-on-week as of December 19, highlighting easing immediate tightness in the Chinese market. On the supply front, global primary aluminium output in November edged up 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. In China, aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tonnes in November, while cumulative output for the first eleven months climbed 2.5% to 41.17 million tonnes, reinforcing the view of resilient domestic supply. However, the downside remains capped by strengthening global supply-side concerns. LME aluminium prices moved close to their highest levels in over three years amid growing worries over constrained availability. China reiterated its commitment to preventing overcapacity, as production is set to breach the 45 million tonne cap this year, prompting smelters to restrain output growth in 2026. This policy shift has already reduced exports, which fell 9.2% year-on-year in November. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.75% to 4,493 alongside a price fall of 10.75. Support is placed at 281.9, below which prices may test 273.4. Resistance is seen at 307, and a sustained move above could push prices toward 323.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 273.4-323.6.

* Aluminium prices dropped as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.6%.

* Global aluminium output rises 0.5% year on year in November – IAI

* However, moves by Chinese smelters to build new plants in Indonesia continued to face troubles amid higher energy costs and local regulations risks.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower, settling down by 0.35% at 17,068, as the market reacted to expectations of higher acreage supported by favourable rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with increased acreage, though supply growth is expected to remain moderate due to weather irregularities and localized disease pressure. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. All-India dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the overall rise in availability. Downside, however, remains capped as arrivals continue to stay below normal and both farmers and stockists are reported to have reduced inventories significantly. Yield losses of 15–20% were reported in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to unseasonal rains, waterlogging and disease issues, impacting nearly 15% of the Marathwada area. Despite this, Maharashtra’s dried output is projected to rise to 54 lakh bags on higher acreage. Quality concerns persist, although IPM adoption and EU-compliant material support export-grade demand. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, despite a monthly decline in October. In Nizamabad spot market, prices gained 1.54% to 15,952.4, reflecting tight nearby supplies. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.22% to 14,245 while prices slipped 60. Support is seen at 16,722, below which prices may test 16,378. Resistance stands at 17,540, and a break above could open the way toward 18,014.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16378-18014.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15952.4 Rupees gained by 1.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased, settling down by 0.87% at 22,210, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Market sentiment remains cautious as overseas demand stays tepid, with current export requirements largely met from available inventories. Exports during April–October 2025 declined by 13.21% year-on-year, while October shipments also slipped on both yearly and monthly bases, reflecting weak buying interest. In the spot market, Unjha prices declined 0.65% to 22,135.65, despite very low arrivals, indicating selective demand focused on premium quality lots. Downside, however, appears limited as weather disruptions and delayed sowing continue to underpin prices. As of 29 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 398,596 hectares, down 14.20% from last year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Supply tightness is further supported by logistical challenges across India and the Middle East, while geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan and China have curtailed global output. Domestic fundamentals are mixed, with farmers holding nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.54% to 4,461 as prices fell 195. Support is seen at 21,800, below which prices may test 21,390. Resistance stands at 22,960, and a break above could push prices toward 23,710.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21390-23710.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22135.65 Rupees dropped by -0.65 percent.

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