IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.36 percent to settle at 134,894, as investors continued to factor in the possibility of additional monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve next year. Recent US labour market data showed further cooling, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6 percent in November and wage growth slowing to its weakest pace in over two years. This has reinforced expectations of up to two rate cuts in 2026, with nearly 59 basis points of easing already priced in. Markets are now focused on upcoming US CPI and PCE inflation data for further policy cues. Geopolitical risks also lent support to bullion prices after fresh tensions emerged following the US decision to impose a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, partly offsetting optimism surrounding Russia–Ukraine peace discussions. Morgan Stanley maintained a constructive medium-term outlook, projecting gold prices at USD 4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by anticipated rate cuts, a weaker dollar, Chinese retail demand and sustained central bank buying, despite expectations of relatively smaller gains. Physical market activity remained mixed. In India, discounts widened to as much as USD 34 per ounce amid subdued wedding-season demand at record price levels, while Chinese demand stayed muted. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest rose 2.92 percent alongside a ?485 price gain, indicating new long positions. Support is seen at 133,760, with further downside toward 132,630. Resistance is placed at 135,635, and a sustained break above could push prices toward 136,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 132630-136380.

* Gold gains as investors continued to see scope for additional easing by the Federal Reserve next year.

* The US labor market showed further signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021.

* Markets now await November’s CPI data due on Thursday, followed by PCE figures on Friday, for further insight into inflation pressures.

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply, settling higher by 4.89 percent at 2,07,435, driven by tightening global inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the US critical minerals list. Robust ETF inflows and sustained retail buying further reinforced bullish sentiment, strengthening expectations of a structural market deficit in the coming year. Industrial consumption from solar energy, electric vehicles and data-centre infrastructure continues to expand rapidly, while global mine production and recycling have remained broadly flat for over a decade. Supply-side concerns intensified after China announced strict export controls on silver effective 2026, triggering aggressive pre-emptive buying. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, with inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses at the weakest since 2015. A record export of over 660 tonnes from China in October temporarily eased local tightness but shifted stress to global markets. Elevated lease rates and borrowing costs for physical silver in London indicate genuine delivery constraints rather than speculative positioning. Despite a 3.5 percent month-on-month rise in London vault holdings, overall market liquidity remains tight. Technically, silver remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.83 percent alongside a sharp price gain of ?9,680, indicating strong long build-up. Support is placed at 2,01,815, with further downside at 1,96,190. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,10,450, and a decisive break could open the path toward 2,13,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 196190-213460.

* Silver gains on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list.

* Additional support came from robust ETF inflows and retail buying, reinforcing expectations of a market deficit in the year ahead.

* Fed's Collins says supported rate cut but it was a 'close call'

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled marginally higher by 0.2 percent at 5,081, supported by renewed geopolitical concerns after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela. This development raised short-term supply risk perceptions and helped prices stabilize, despite persistent pressure from elevated global production. Rising output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, particularly in the Americas, has kept the market well supplied, with Brent crude hovering near the $50 range. Fundamentally, oversupply concerns continue to dominate the medium-term outlook. The International Energy Agency projects a sizeable surplus in 2026, although its latest assessment narrowed the expected oversupply to 3.84 million barrels per day due to slightly stronger demand growth and lower supply forecasts amid sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.  On the inventory front, US crude oil stocks fell by 1.27 million barrels in the week ended December 12, extending the prior week’s draw. Stocks at the Cushing hub declined sharply by 742 thousand barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories posted hefty builds, highlighting uneven demand conditions across refined products. OPEC+ production rose to 43.06 million bpd in November as planned supply increases continued. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest plunging 47.25 percent while prices edged higher, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Support is seen at 5,029, with a break below exposing prices to 4,977. Resistance is placed at 5,134, and a sustained move above could lead to a test of 5,187 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4977-5187.

* Crude oil gained after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela.

* Rising production from OPEC+ and other drillers has pressured futures, with Brent nearing the $50s.

* IEA forecasts a significant surplus in 2026, reflecting growing concerns over worldwide oil oversupply.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices moved higher, settling up by 1.94 percent at 362.9, supported by near-record gas flows to LNG export facilities and expectations of higher demand than earlier projected. Strong export activity continues to underpin prices even as domestic production remains elevated. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased marginally to 109.5 bcfd so far in December, slightly below November’s record level, according to LSEG, but still reflects ample supply conditions. Despite high production, storage dynamics remain a key focus. US energy firms withdrew 177 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended December 5, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals in line with seasonal norms. Total inventories stood at 3,746 bcf, around 0.7 percent below last year’s levels but still 2.8 percent above the five-year average, indicating comfortable availability. Record output earlier in the year has allowed producers to build inventories to about 1 percent above normal. On the demand side, weather continues to limit upside. Meteorologists expect temperatures across most of the US to remain warmer than normal through January 1, reducing heating demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.39 percent alongside a ?6.9 price gain, suggesting new long positions. Support is seen at 356.3, with a break below exposing prices to 349.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at 367.8, and a sustained move above could lead to a test of 372.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 349.8-372.8.

* Natural gas climbed on near-record gas flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for more demand.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.5 bcfd so far in December

* Average gas would fall from 145.1 bcfd this week to 131.1 bcfd next week.

Copper

Copper prices extended their upward momentum, settling higher by 0.67 percent at 1,113.35, as persistent concerns over potential supply shortages continued to drive speculative buying. LME copper has rallied around 33 percent so far this year, hitting successive record highs in recent weeks on expectations that mine disruptions and tighter refined supply could lead to deficits in 2026. Reflecting this view, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to USD 11,400 per metric ton, citing reduced likelihood of refined copper tariffs in early 2026 and improved affordability dynamics. Supply data remain mixed. Peru’s copper production rose 4.8 percent year-on-year in October to 248,192 tonnes, while output for January–October increased 3 percent to 2.30 million tonnes. On the demand side, China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month in November, down 2.51 percent, as elevated prices curbed buying interest. The Yangshan premium also softened, indicating weaker appetite for imported metal. Nevertheless, expectations of tighter refined supply are building, as Chinese smelters have agreed to cut output by 10 percent in 2026 to address negative processing fees. Technically, the market shows signs of short covering, with open interest falling 2.41 percent while prices rose ?7.45, suggesting the unwinding of bearish positions. Support is seen at 1,107.6, with a break below opening downside toward 1,101.9. Resistance is placed at 1,119, and a move above could push prices toward 1,124.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1101.9-1124.7.

* Copper prices rose as persistent worries about potential shortages spurred buying by speculators.

* LME copper has climbed by 33% this year, largely on concerns that mine disruptions will result in supply deficits next year.

* Peru's copper production rises 4.8% in October

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.43 percent to settle at 304.25, supported by supply-side concerns after reports that a zinc mine in central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer effective production days. Additional support came from expectations of lower zinc concentrate output, as a major mine in southwest China is scheduled for maintenance in December after largely completing its annual production target, potentially reducing concentrate output by around 700 tonnes in metal content. Inventory dynamics further underpinned prices. Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell sharply by 12.3 percent week-on-week, while inventories outside China remain at extremely low levels. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tonnes in September from 32,700 tonnes in August, highlighting tightening near-term fundamentals. However, upside in zinc remained capped by persistent demand concerns from China. Factory output and retail sales growth slowed further in November, while property investment and sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, weighing on consumption prospects. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.52 percent while prices rose ?1.3, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Support is seen at 300.7, with a break below exposing prices to 297.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at 307, and a sustained move above could lead to a test of 309.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 297.2-309.8.

* Zinc gains after reports zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown.

* However upside seen limited as dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 12.30% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.48 percent to settle at 281.55, supported by renewed supply-side concerns following confirmation that the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March. The shutdown is expected to dent global aluminium supplies next year, adding to existing tightness. Additional disruptions, including the suspension of a potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter due to equipment failure, further reinforced supply worries. Reflecting tightening availability, global producers are seeking sharply higher premiums of USD 190–203 per tonne for January–March shipments to Japan. Inventory trends remained supportive. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports declined 5.2 percent month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes by end-November, while on-warrant LME inventories fell to 452,600 tonnes after fresh cancellations in Malaysia. SHFE-monitored inventories also dropped 2.5 percent week-on-week, underscoring constrained near-term supply. However, upside remained capped by lingering demand concerns in China, the world’s largest consumer. While imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose strongly in October, signalling healthy downstream demand, global output continues to edge higher. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 18.48 percent while prices rose ?1.35, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Support is seen at 280.1, with a break below exposing prices to 278.5. Resistance is placed at 282.7, and a move above could test 283.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 278.5-283.7.

* Aluminium rose after confirmation that the Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be shut.

* Japan's November aluminium stocks fall 5.2% on – month

* China aluminium production up 2.5 % to 3.79 mln metric tons in Nov – stats bureau

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled higher by 1.8 percent at 16,146, supported by below-normal arrivals and firm domestic as well as international demand. Tight spot availability, coupled with significantly reduced stocks held by farmers and stockists, has provided a strong base to prices ahead of the new crop supply. However, the upside remains capped amid expectations of higher acreage during the ongoing sowing season, aided by favourable rainfall and relatively lower profitability in competing crops. Crop conditions remain mixed across key growing regions. Excessive and continuous rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka has adversely impacted yields, while waterlogging in low-lying areas has caused damage to rhizomes. In Erode, persistent rains have triggered disease outbreaks in certain pockets. Overall, 15–20 percent crop damage has been reported from major producing areas, and arrivals are expected to be delayed to February–March. Carry-forward stocks remain at record-low levels compared to historical averages, keeping market availability tight. On the demand front, domestic consumption remains strong, while exports continue to lend support. Turmeric exports during April–September 2025 rose by 4.02 percent year-on-year to 96,679.67 tonnes, with September shipments up 7.59 percent annually despite a marginal month-on-month decline. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, as open interest increased by 2.65 percent alongside a price rise of ?286, indicating new long positions. Support is seen at 15,792, with a break below opening downside towards 15,440. On the upside, resistance is placed at 16,458, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 16,772.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15440-16772.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15411.95 Rupees dropped by -0.48 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled higher by 0.74 percent at 21,190, supported by weather-related concerns and delayed sowing across key producing regions. Uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, particularly in Gujarat, which is witnessing one of its slowest sowing seasons in recent years. As of 15 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down nearly 14 percent year-on-year, adding to supply-side concerns. At Unjha, arrivals remain very low, and superior-quality cumin continues to attract premium prices. Despite these supportive factors, the upside in prices remains limited due to comfortable old-season supplies and subdued export demand. Traders note that the retail season has concluded and overseas buying remains largely inactive, with current export commitments being met from existing stocks. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the season ends, resulting in a sizable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing area. On the export front, shipments during April–September 2025 declined by 14.51 percent year-on-year, although September exports showed a month-on-month recovery. Global supply disruptions in Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan have not translated into strong demand for Indian cumin, keeping market sentiment cautious. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.13 percent alongside a price gain of ?155, indicating new long positions. Support is placed at 21,000, with a break below exposing prices to 20,800. Resistance is seen at 21,400, and a sustained move above could test 21,600 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20800-21600.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20946.1 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent. 

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views