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Gold

Gold prices slipped marginally by 0.05% to settle at 123913 as investors booked profits after recent gains driven by concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Although the U.S. Senate moved closer to ending the historic shutdown, uncertainty about its economic impact kept sentiment cautious. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in over a 60% probability of another rate cut in December. On the demand front, China’s gold consumption during January–September 2025 declined 7.95% year-on-year to 682.73 metric tons, while domestic output rose 1.39% to 271.78 tons. Physical demand in India stayed weak as volatility in prices prompted dealers to widen discounts to as much as $14 per ounce, up from $12 the previous week. Chinese demand also eased following a change in tax exemption policy for gold retailers, reducing benefits to 6% until end-2027. Premiums remained modest in other Asian hubs, with Singapore and Hong Kong quoting between $1.5–$3.5 per ounce. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons in Q3, the highest quarterly level on record, supported by a 17% jump in bar and coin investment and a 134% surge in ETF inflows, offsetting weaker jewellery demand. Central banks continued steady purchases, up 10% year-on-year to 219.9 tons. Gold remains under mild selling pressure with open interest up 2.77% at 12,906. Support is seen at 122940 and 121965, while resistance is likely at 125365 and 126815 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 121965-126815.

* Gold pared gains on profit booking after prices gained amid worries about the potential economic fallout

* The Senate reached a compromise and moved forward on a measure aimed at ending the longest US government shutdown.

* According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets now see an over 60% chance of another rate cut by the Fed in December.

Silver

Silver prices edged higher by 0.65% to settle at 154687, supported by expectations of a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut amid growing signs of economic weakness. Recent U.S. data indicated notable job losses in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, while consumer sentiment fell to a 3½-year low in early November. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, with some policymakers, including Fed Governor Stephen Miran, suggesting a larger half-point reduction due to easing inflation and rising unemployment. The U.S. Senate’s passage of a bill to reopen the government after a 40-day shutdown slightly reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals, though market focus remains on economic and monetary cues. On the supply front, silver held in London vaults rose by 6.8% in October to 26,255 metric tons, valued at $41.3 billion, according to the LBMA. The inflow of 1,674 tons from the U.S. and China eased the liquidity crunch in the London market, helping lower short-term borrowing rates from record highs. Meanwhile, about 1,568 tons of silver exited Comex warehouses since early October, though inventories remain higher year-on-year. Global silver ETP investments surged, with net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, pushing total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces—just 7% below the 2021 record high. Silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.69% to 15,944. Support is at 153100 and 151510, while resistance is seen at 156180 and 157670.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 151510-157670.

* Silver surged supported by expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut amid signs of US economic weakness.

* US data last week pointed job losses in October, particularly in government and retail.

* Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocating a larger half-point reduction amid falling inflation and rising unemployment.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose 1.41% to settle at 5403, supported by fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies, though oversupply worries limited further upside. The sanctions targeted major Russian producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, with the latter declaring force majeure on shipments from Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field. Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of OPEC’s monthly market outlook and the International Energy Agency’s annual report, both expected to provide updated projections on global supply-demand balances. Despite the sanctions, crude prices faced headwinds from expectations that global output will exceed demand as OPEC+ gradually eases production cuts and non-OPEC producers ramp up supply. U.S. oil output climbed to a record 13.8 million barrels per day in August, up by 86,000 bpd, reflecting resilient shale production. U.S. crude inventories surged by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31, well above forecasts, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined by 4.73 million and 0.643 million barrels respectively, suggesting stronger fuel demand. On the demand side, China’s crude imports rose 8.2% year-on-year in October to 48.36 million metric tons, equivalent to 11.4 million bpd, as refineries ran at peak utilization rates. For the first ten months of 2025, total imports increased 3.1% to 471 million tons, underlining sustained demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Crude oil is witnessing short covering with open interest down 9.92% to 9,493. Support lies at 5328 and 5252, while resistance is expected at 5452 and 5500.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5252-5500.

* Crude oil gains due to the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.

* Global supply is expected to outpace demand, with OPEC and allies, including Russia, easing output curbs.

* Russia’s top oil firms, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, face US sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged 4.92% to settle at 400.9, supported by robust export demand and record activity at U.S. LNG facilities. Flows to the eight major LNG terminals averaged around 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, surpassing October’s record levels. The surge comes as Europe continues to diversify away from Russian gas while Asian buyers secure long-term supply contracts from the U.S. On the supply side, U.S. output remains elevated at about 108.7 bcfd, contributing to storage levels that stand roughly 4% above the seasonal average. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), both natural gas supply and demand are projected to reach new highs in 2025 and 2026, driven by the expansion of energy-intensive data centers and surging LNG exports. The EIA expects dry gas production to rise to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, while total consumption could approach 116 bcfd. U.S. LNG exports are forecast to climb to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, compared with a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024. Meanwhile, gas storage increased by 33 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 31, taking inventories to 3,915 bcf—0.2% lower than last year but 4.3% above the five-year average. Natural gas is witnessing fresh buying with open interest jumping 32.92% to 23,868. Support is seen at 385.2 and 369.5, while resistance is placed at 410.5 and 420.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 369.5-420.1.

* Natural gas gains lifted by strong export demand and record activity at LNG facilities.

* Flows to the eight major LNG plants averaged around 17.4 bcfd so far this month, topping October’s record.

* US output has reached about 108.7 bcfd, above October levels, helping storage rise to roughly 4 percent above the seasonal norm.

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.44% to settle at 1008.3, as traders booked profits following recent gains driven by optimism over a potential resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Senate passed a bill to end the record-long shutdown, pending final approval from the House of Representatives, which is expected to vote soon before sending it to President Donald Trump for signing. The deal aims to fund federal agencies through January 30, providing temporary relief to disrupted services and workers. On the supply side, output data reinforced expectations of tighter global supply in 2025. Chile’s state-owned miner Codelco reported a 7% year-on-year decline in September production, while output from a Glencore–Anglo American joint venture dropped 26%. In contrast, BHP’s Escondida mine saw a 17% increase. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a global refined copper surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, followed by a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026, as demand growth outpaces supply expansion. Copper mine production is forecast to rise by 1.4% next year and 2.3% in 2026, while refined usage is expected to increase 3% and 2.1%, respectively. China’s refined copper imports declined 9.7% in October to 438,000 tons as high prices curbed restocking. However, copper concentrate imports rose 7.5% year-on-year in the first ten months, reaching 25.09 million tons. Copper remains under fresh selling pressure with open interest up 3.24% to 8,923. Support is seen at 1005.4 and 1002.4, while resistance is at 1012.6 and 1016.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1002.4-1016.8.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained as a potential resolution to the U.S. federal government shutdown lifted market sentiment.

* Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco slid more than 7% in September.

* Commerzbank raises year-end copper price forecast from $9,600 to $10,500 per ton

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.3% to settle at 303.8, pressured by weaker manufacturing activity data from both China and the U.S., which dampened overall industrial sentiment. China’s October economic indicators offered mixed signals — while deflation eased with consumer prices turning positive at 0.2% and factory-gate prices narrowing their decline to -2.1%, the official manufacturing PMI fell for the seventh consecutive month to 49.0, signaling contraction. Similarly, the U.S. PMI dropped to 50.6, below expectations, suggesting a slowdown in industrial activity. However, some support came from optimism around the U.S. Senate’s progress toward ending the prolonged government shutdown, which helped stabilize market sentiment. On the supply front, zinc inventories continue to tighten globally. LME stocks dropped to 35,200 tons — their lowest since March 2023 — down about 85% from the start of the year, underscoring strong physical market demand and a looming supply squeeze. The cash-to-three-month LME premium widened to $170, highlighting immediate metal shortages. Meanwhile, global refined zinc output is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025, while the ILZSG reported a global surplus of 47,900 tons in August and 154,000 tons for January–August 2025, slightly above last year’s level. Zinc is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.95% to 2,696. Support is placed at 302.6 and 301.2, while resistance is expected at 305.1 and 306.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 301.2-306.2.

* Zinc eased as soft manufacturing PMIs in China and the US pressed against industrial sentiment.

* October data from China signalled easing deflation and lifted confidence in economic recovery

* Commerzbank revises forecast for zinc to $3,000 per ton (previously $2,800)

Aluminium

Aluminium prices inched higher by 0.04% to settle at 273.55, supported by renewed optimism over China’s economic measures, easing deflation, and expectations of improved demand amid tightening supply. Market sentiment was also boosted as the U.S. government moved closer to ending its record-long shutdown, helping stabilize risk appetite across commodities. In China, deflation pressures moderated, while the government reiterated its commitment to curb overcapacity in the metals sector, signaling restrained production growth ahead. On the fundamentals side, aluminium supply remains constrained due to production disruptions and policy limits. China’s annual output cap of 45 million tons is expected to be breached this year, raising concerns about supply shortages. Additionally, supply disruptions were reported at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and Alcoa’s Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, while Century Aluminium’s smelter in Iceland curtailed two-thirds of its output due to equipment failure. Meanwhile, the European aluminium premium climbed to $328 per tonne, its highest since February, reflecting tight physical market conditions. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 0.2% from last week, adding to signs of limited supply. In trade data, China’s aluminium imports rose 35.4% year-on-year in September to 360,000 tons, while cumulative imports for January–September increased 5.7% to 3.01 million tons. Exports stood at 542,000 tons in July, up from June’s 489,000 tons. Aluminium is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest up 1.4% to 3,196. Support is seen at 273.2 and 272.8, while resistance lies at 274 and 274.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 272.8-274.4.

* Aluminium gains after China unveiled more measures to support growth

* Support also seen helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* Commerzbank revises forecast for aluminium upward to $2,900 per ton (previously $2,600)

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 1.58% at 15,196, weighed down by higher acreage this season following favourable monsoon rains. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage has increased by 15–20% to 3.30 lakh hectares for 2024–25, compared to around 3 lakh hectares last year, as farmers shifted from less profitable crops. However, the downside remained limited as excessive rainfall and humidity in major growing regions like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have caused yield losses and disease outbreaks. In Erode, consistent rains have created preservation challenges, while around 15% of turmeric crop area in Nanded has reportedly suffered damage. Market activity remains firm, supported by strong buyer demand for fresh crop arrivals. In Duggirala, new turmeric stocks are fetching higher prices than old inventory due to superior quality, with daily trade volumes steady between 1,000 and 1,200 bags. Around 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, and active arrivals are expected to continue. Meanwhile, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, adding a layer of support. On the export front, shipments during April–August 2025 rose 3.31% to 80,156.56 tonnes, with August exports up 7.27% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 0.26% to 11,680 while prices declined 244. Turmeric finds support at 15,024 and 14,850, while resistance is placed at 15,458 and 15,718.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14850-15718.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15145 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled higher by 0.66% at 19,885 on short covering after recent weakness triggered by sluggish export demand post the retail season. Prices had earlier come under pressure due to comfortable domestic supplies and limited foreign buying interest, as current export commitments are being met from existing stock. Sentiment improved after the GST Council reduced the GST rate on certain FMCG items to 5%, which is expected to boost both domestic and export demand. Market participants estimate that farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by the end of the season, resulting in a carry-forward stock of roughly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly below last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing. Gujarat’s output is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce around 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has trimmed production estimates in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Jeera exports during April–August 2025 dropped 17.02% year-on-year to 85,977 tonnes, though August exports were up 3.24% from last year. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 9.6% to 1,440 while prices rose 130. Jeera finds support at 19,800 and 19,700, while resistance is seen at 20,000 and 20,100.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19700-20100.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* Jeera exports during Apr - Aug 2025, dropped by 17.02 percent at 85977.39 tonnes as compared to 103614.50 tonnes exported during Apr - Aug 2024.

* Traders attributed the fall mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity on the part of foreign buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19931.7 Rupees dropped by -0.24 percent.

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