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Gold

Gold prices edged slightly higher by 0.08% to settle at 1,20,613, supported by a weaker U.S. labour outlook that bolstered expectations of further Federal Reserve easing. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has complicated economic assessments, shifting focus to private-sector data. ADP private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, beating forecasts, while the ISM Services PMI hit an eight-month high. Despite this strength, inflation remaining above target has limited the scope for additional rate cuts, aligning with Fed Chair Powell’s recent hawkish remarks. Still, some policymakers signaled that rates may gradually move lower over time. On the physical front, gold demand patterns were mixed. In India, the metal was sold at a discount of up to $12 per ounce—the first in seven weeks—amid slowing demand after festive buying. Conversely, premiums improved in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan, reflecting revived trading activity following a dip in global rates. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year in Q3 to 1,313 tons, the highest on record, driven by strong investment inflows and robust central bank purchases. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering with open interest falling by 0.54% to 13,489 while prices gained 91. Immediate support is seen at 1,19,980, with further downside potential to 1,19,340, while resistance is expected near 1,21,405 and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 1,22,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 119340-122190.

* Gold settled flat as a fragile US labour picture raised the odds of Federal Reserve easing.

* The US government entered its longest-ever shutdown, complicating the assessment of the economic outlook.

* US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, surpassing forecasts of 25,000, while the ISM Services PMI hit an eight-month high.

Silver

Silver prices edged slightly lower by 0.17% to settle at 1,47,069, as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and its implications for future Federal Reserve policy. The ADP report showed a 42,000-job gain in October versus a forecast of 28,000, tempering expectations for additional rate cuts. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now the longest on record, has forced policymakers to rely on private data for economic assessment. Despite the Fed’s recent rate cut, Chair Jerome Powell hinted it could be the last one for 2025. On the global front, liquidity in the London silver market improved as shipments from the U.S. and China eased recent supply tightness. London vaults held 24,581 tons of silver valued at $36.5 billion as of end-September. Investment sentiment remained firm, with silver ETPs recording net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, taking global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces—just 7% below the 2021 record peak. The Silver Institute projects a 21% narrowing of the global deficit to 117.6 million ounces this year, driven by steady industrial demand and improved supply. Retail investment remains resilient in India with a 7% annual rise, while Europe continues a modest recovery. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell 3.02% to 19,651 while prices slipped 252. Immediate support is placed at 1,45,740, and below that at 1,44,405, while resistance is expected near 1,48,725; a breakout above this may take prices toward 1,50,375.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 144405-150375.

* Silver pared gains as investors assessed the stronger-than-expected ADP employment report

* Prolonged government shutdown fuels economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

* Supreme Court questions legality of Trump’s global tariff policies

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 0.81% to settle at 5,262 as concerns over weakening demand and a growing global supply glut continued to weigh on sentiment. Rising inventories and increased production from both OPEC+ and non-member countries have amplified oversupply worries. Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut December crude prices for Asian buyers underscored the well-supplied market. Although OPEC+ approved a modest production rise for December, it signaled caution by pausing further hikes in early 2026. Global oil demand has grown by around 850,000 barrels per day this year, slightly below JP Morgan’s expectations, mainly due to subdued U.S. consumption and weaker transport activity. On the supply side, Libya plans to expand production from 1.4 million bpd currently to 1.6 million next year and eventually 2 million within five years, further adding to future supply concerns. U.S. crude inventories rose sharply by 5.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31, far exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined, providing limited support. OPEC’s latest report maintained its steady demand outlook but highlighted that increased OPEC+ output—up 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd—has significantly reduced the projected supply deficit for 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest dropping 6.97% to 12,570 as prices fell 43. Immediate support is placed at 5,206 and further at 5,149, while resistance is seen near 5,347; a breakout above this may lift prices toward 5,431.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5149-5431.

* Crude oil dropped as pressure from weaker demand and a global oil glut continued to weigh on the market.

* US crude inventories surged by more than 5 million barrels last week, the biggest increase since July.

* Rising inventories and higher output from OPEC+ and non-members have stoked worries of a global glut.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 0.98% to settle at 380.9, supported by stronger heating demand and robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia. Forecasts for colder early winter weather lifted expectations for increased gas consumption, while LNG export flows averaged a record 16.6 billion cubic feet per day in October. European buyers continued to depend heavily on U.S. gas amid reduced Russian supplies and falling inventories in key hubs, while Washington pushed for long-term energy partnerships with Asian nations. On the supply side, U.S. natural gas output remained elevated around 107 bcfd, keeping the market well supplied. Storage in the Lower 48 states increased by 74 bcf in the week ending October 27, above expectations of a 71 bcf build, bringing total inventories to 3,853 bcf — 0.8% higher than a year ago and 4.6% above the five-year average. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), both production and demand will reach record highs in 2025, with output projected at 107.1 bcfd and consumption at 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also forecast to rise to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, underscoring strong global demand for U.S. gas. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 5.23% to 18,298 while prices gained 3.7. Support is seen at 374.1 and 367.3, while resistance is placed at 386.1; a move above this level could push prices toward 391.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 367.3-391.3.

* Natural gas climbed supported by stronger heating demand and robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia.

* Colder weather forecasts for early winter boosted expectations for increased gas consumption.

* LNG export flows averaged 16.6 billion cubic feet per day in October, setting a new record.

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.17% to settle at 1,000.05, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, weak Chinese demand indicators, and easing supply concerns. However, losses were limited as improving risk sentiment and resilient U.S. economic data supported broader market confidence. The ADP report showed stronger-than-expected job gains in October, while the services PMI rose to an eight-month high. Investors now await China’s upcoming trade and inflation data for fresh direction. On the supply front, output disruptions continue to lend underlying support. Major miners like Glencore and Anglo American reported weaker production in the first nine months of 2025, while a fatal mudslide at Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian mine halted operations, affecting over 3% of global supply. Meanwhile, China’s imports of copper concentrate fell 6.2% in September due to reduced Indonesian shipments following the expiry of Freeport’s export license. However, total imports for the year remained up 7.7%, while refined copper imports rose 14.1% in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a 178,000-tonne surplus in 2025, followed by a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026, with mine production expected to rise 1.4% next year and 2.3% in 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 1.11% to 9,675 while prices eased 1.7. Immediate support is placed at 997, and a fall below this may test 993.8, while resistance is seen at 1,005.2; a breakout above could lift prices toward 1,010.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 993.8-1010.2.

* Copper dropped as prices pulled back under pressure from a strong dollar, worries about demand in China

* However downside seen limited as risk appetite returned to the markets amid signs of resilience in the US economy.

* Data showed that US private employers added more jobs than expected in October.

Zinc

Zinc prices inched up by 0.07% to settle at 300.65, supported by persistently low global inventories outside China, though gains were capped by weaker manufacturing data from major economies. Soft factory activity readings in both China and the U.S. weighed on sentiment, with China’s official manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.0 in October, marking the seventh consecutive month of contraction. The private-sector PMI also missed expectations at 50.6, signaling subdued industrial momentum. Despite softer demand signals, supply-side constraints continued to lend support. LME zinc stocks fell sharply to 35,200 tons, near their lowest since March 2023 and down about 85% from levels seen at the start of the year, fueling market concern over a potential supply squeeze. The cash-to-three-month LME zinc premium widened to $170, underscoring tight near-term availability. In contrast, Chinese zinc inventories have risen to around 162,000 tons, reflecting a diverging trend between domestic surpluses and overseas shortages. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global surplus of 47,900 tons in August and 154,000 tons in the first eight months of 2025, up from 138,000 tons a year earlier. Global refined zinc output is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest edged up 0.08% to 2,583 while prices gained 0.2. Support is placed at 299.9 and 299.1, while resistance is seen at 301.9; a breakout above this could push prices toward 303.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.1-303.1.

* Zinc gains as Inventories have plunged to extremely low levels in the global zinc market outside China.

* However downside seen limited amid soft manufacturing PMIs in China and the US pressed against industrial sentiment.

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled slightly lower by -0.07% at 271.75 as a stronger US dollar and renewed demand concerns weighed on sentiment. However, losses remained limited due to improving demand prospects and restricted supply growth in China. Fund inflows into LME aluminium contracts have strengthened in recent months, reflecting optimism that chronic oversupply may be easing, with Chinese production nearing its government-imposed capacity ceiling. The European aluminium premium surged to $328 from $183 in June, touching its highest since February, supported by reduced Canadian supply and anticipated costs from the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. China reaffirmed its focus on curbing overcapacity to mitigate deflationary pressures, while SHFE aluminium inventories dropped 3.89% from last week, indicating steady consumption. Supply constraints were amplified by outages at Century Aluminium’s Iceland smelter and Alcoa’s closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia. Global primary aluminium output in September rose modestly by 0.9% YoY to 6.08 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Meanwhile, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 35.4% YoY in September to 360,000 tonnes, reflecting strong domestic demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by -4.45% to settle at 3158 while prices slipped marginally by -0.2 rupees. Aluminium is getting support at 270.9, and a break below may test 269.8 levels, whereas resistance is seen at 273.4, and a move above could trigger gains toward 274.8 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 269.8-274.8.

* Aluminium dropped as the US dollar gains and concerns around metal demand began to emerge.

* However downside seen limited helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* The European aluminium premium freight and handling costs, rose to $328 from $183 in June.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.15% to 14,642 amid concerns over yield losses in key growing regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to excessive rainfall. Continuous rains in Erode have also led to disease outbreaks and high humidity, complicating storage conditions. Crop damage reports, including around 15% loss in Nanded, have supported sentiment. However, gains were capped by expectations of higher acreage this season, with turmeric area rising to 3.30 lakh hectares for 2024–25, nearly 10% higher than last year, as favorable rains encouraged expansion and other crops offered lower profitability. Supply dynamics remain tight in the near term, as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted and fresh arrivals have slowed. In Duggirala, strong demand for new crop arrivals continues, with premium prices for superior-quality produce keeping market activity firm. Daily trading volumes remain healthy at around 1,000–1,200 bags, and roughly 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded. On the export front, shipments during April–August 2025 rose by 3.31% year-on-year to 80,156 tonnes, supported by a 7.27% rise in August exports compared to last year, reflecting steady overseas demand. The market witnessed short covering as open interest fell by 0.6% to 11,630 while prices rose by 22. Turmeric has support at 14,546 and 14,448, while resistance is seen at 14,784 and 14,924.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14448-14924.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14683.6 Rupees gained by 0.62 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by 0.25% to 20,135 amid weak export demand following the end of the retail season and subdued foreign buying interest. Market participants noted that comfortable supplies and adequate existing stocks kept traders cautious, with low arrivals during the Diwali holidays providing only limited support. Demand remained muted, with most export requirements being met from previously available stocks. However, downside remained restricted on bargain buying at lower levels and expectations of renewed domestic demand after the GST council lowered the GST rate to 5%, a move likely to support FMCG-linked exports and local consumption. On the supply side, farmers are estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by the end of the season, leaving an expected carryover of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production in India is projected at 90–92 lakh bags this year, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat contributing around 42–45 lakh and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather in China has reduced output estimates to 70,000–80,000 tons, while production in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remains limited. Despite this, Indian export demand remains soft, with shipments during April–August 2025 down 17% year-on-year at 85,977 tonnes. The market witnessed long liquidation as open interest dropped by 12.15% to 2,322 while prices fell 50. Jeera has support at 20,050 and 19,970, while resistance is seen at 20,270 and 20,410.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19970-20410.

* Jeera dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Traders attributed the fall mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity on the part of foreign buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20187.2 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.

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