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Gold

Gold edged lower by 0.24% to settle at 129,796 as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut, which brought the funds rate to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since 2022. However, the Fed’s guidance signaled a cautious road ahead, with policymakers maintaining projections for only one rate cut in 2026 and three members dissenting in favor of no reduction. Fresh U.S. data reinforced economic resilience, as job openings continued to outperform expectations and ADP figures showed a rebound in private-sector hiring, complicating the Fed’s easing trajectory. Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by solid official-sector demand. China increased its reserves for the 13th consecutive month to 74.12 million troy ounces, while global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October, led by Poland and Brazil. Year-to-date purchases reached 254 tonnes. ETF appetite also stayed firm, with global gold ETFs posting a sixth straight month of inflows totaling USD 5.2 billion in November. Physical markets were subdued as record-high prices weighed on demand. Indian buyers stepped back, widening dealer discounts to USD 22 per ounce, while China saw mixed premiums and discounts amid volatility. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, evidenced by a 2.54% rise in open interest to 13,744, alongside a decline of 311 rupees. Gold has immediate support at 129,390, with a break exposing 128,990, while resistance stands at 130,345, and a move above this could open the way toward 130,900. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Gold trading range for the day is 128990-130900.

*  Gold remained in range as markets anticipated a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.

*  The Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate by 25bps to 3.5%–3.75%, marking the lowest level since 2022

*  Indonesia to impose gold export duties starting December 23

  Silver

Silver extended its record-setting rally, rising 0.36% to 188,735 as expectations of an imminent 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut converged with a pronounced physical-market squeeze. Prices surged to new all-time highs amid exceptionally tight inventories, strong ETF inflows, and a structural market deficit. Low visible exchange stocks, constrained spot liquidity, and persistent draws across major warehouses underscored deepening supply stress. Renewed accumulation by silver-backed ETFs added further momentum, while futures pricing continued to support a favorable real-rate environment for precious metals despite mixed U.S. labor signals. Industrial demand remains a dominant bullish force, with solar PV, electric vehicles, and electronics driving consumption to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, mine supply has repeatedly lagged, reinforcing the deficit narrative. A new layer of risk emerged from China, where SHFE-linked inventories fell to their lowest since 2015 and Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes plunged to nine-year lows. China’s exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, with a significant portion diverted to London to ease the squeeze. Despite these flows, global liquidity concerns persist, with elevated borrowing costs in London and ongoing debate around potential U.S. tariffs after silver’s inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.34% to 12,273 while prices advanced by 671 rupees. Immediate support is at 186,760, with further downside risk toward 184,780. Resistance is placed at 191,260, and a breakout above this could propel prices toward 193,780. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Silver trading range for the day is 184780-193780.

*  Silver hits 1,91,800 mark for the first time ever driven by a market deficit and increasing demand for the metal.

*  Support seen amid low visible exchange inventories, renewed ETF accumulation, and market deficit this year.

*  Silver held in London vaults totalled 27,187 at the end of November, a 3.5% increase from the previous month - LBMA

Crude oil

Crude oil prices eased marginally, slipping 0.08% to 5242 as markets monitored developments in Russia–Ukraine peace efforts and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The focus now turns to upcoming IEA and OPEC reports for firmer market direction. U.S. output projections continue to weigh on sentiment, with production expected to reach a record 13.6 million bpd this year, adding to already elevated global supply. API data showed a 4.8-million-barrel draw in crude inventories, although sharp builds in gasoline and distillates highlighted softening product demand. China’s crude imports offered a constructive demand signal, rising 4.88% year-on-year in November to 12.38 million bpd, the highest daily intake since August 2023. Meanwhile, EIA data showed a 1.812-million-barrel U.S. crude draw, undershooting expectations, while Cushing stocks rose after several weeks of declines. The EIA also projected higher U.S. output this year and only a marginal decline next year, reinforcing the outlook for persistent oversupply. Global supply is now forecast to average 106 million bpd in 2025, outpacing expected consumption of 104.1 million bpd. The IEA further raised its supply growth estimates, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026 as production expands faster than demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.7% to 11,780 as prices slipped by 4 rupees. Crude oil finds immediate support at 5196, below which 5149 may be tested, while resistance is placed at 5290, with a breakout likely to open the path toward 5337. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5149-5337.

*  Crude oil dropped as investors watched for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and awaited a decision on U.S. interest rates.

*  US energy officials projected that domestic oil output will rise to a record 13.6 million barrels per day this year.

*  API data showed a 4.8-million-barrel decline in US crude inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose sharply.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices eased marginally, settling down 0.26% at 420.6 as the market continued to grapple with a combination of bearish fundamentals, including milder two-week weather forecasts, near-record production levels, and comfortable storage buffers. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 output holding at 109.6 bcfd so far in December, matching November’s record. However, daily production slipped to around 108.4 bcfd, down nearly 2.8 bcfd from the late-November peak of 111.3 bcfd, though still strong enough to maintain ample supply. Storage levels remain about 5% above seasonal norms, reflecting the impact of persistent high output. Weather models indicated temperatures across most of the U.S. would stay warmer than normal through December 24, curbing heating demand and placing further pressure on prices. LSEG expects total U.S. demand, including exports, to soften from 143.7 bcfd this week to 142.6 bcfd next week. Flows to LNG export terminals, however, continued to rise, averaging 18.8 bcfd so far this month compared with November’s record 18.2 bcfd, offering some support. The EIA reported a 12 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 28, keeping inventories at 3,923 bcf—slightly below last year but still 5.1% above the five-year average. Technically, natural gas remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 5.44% to 16,853 as prices weakened by 1.1 rupees. Support is located at 407, with further downside risk toward 393.5. Resistance stands at 428.4, and a break above this level could open a path toward 436.3. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 393.5-436.3.

*  Natural gas dropped on near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage.

*  Near-record gas output allows for increased storage levels

*  Meteorologists project mild US weather through late December

Copper  

Copper edged higher, gaining 0.59% to 1085.6 as markets positioned for potentially hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The broader trend remains supported by expectations of persistent supply tightness amid ongoing mine disruptions. On the macro front, China’s CPI rose to a 21-month high in November, although PPI deflation persisted as authorities continued efforts to address industrial overcapacity. LME data showed that China-origin copper accounted for 85% of available exchange stocks in November, reflecting strong export incentives due to favourable arbitrage. Chinese refined copper inventories on the LME also increased sharply to 130,225 tons from 100,400 tons in October. The global refined copper market showed a 51,000-ton deficit in September, reversing an August surplus, while cumulative surpluses for the year narrowed significantly, indicating tightening fundamentals. China’s November copper imports dropped for the second month to 427,000 tons, pressured by elevated global prices, even as smelters agreed to cut output by 10% for 2026 to counter negative treatment charges. Weaker Yangshan premiums further signalled softening import appetite. Meanwhile, strong U.S. demand pulled more refined copper into Comex warehouses, where stocks reached record levels. Technically, short covering was evident as open interest declined 3.08% to 8,371 while prices advanced. Copper now finds support at 1079.9, below which 1074.2 may be tested, while resistance is positioned at 1093, with a breakout opening the path toward 1100.4. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Copper trading range for the day is 1074.2-1100.4.

*  Copper gains as investors braced for a possibly hawkish guidance from the Fed following its two-day policy meeting.

*  Chinese copper stocks on the LME increased to 130,225 tons at the end of last month from 100,400 tons in October.

*  China's consumer inflation accelerated to a 21-month peak in November, but factory-gate deflation persisted.

Zinc

Zinc prices inched lower by 0.10% to 310.25 as LME-registered warehouse stocks climbed to 54,325 tons, marking a sharp 60% rise since early November and easing immediate supply concerns. However, the downside remained limited due to continued tight availability in LME inventories and improving macro sentiment. Eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in two and a half years in November, adding fundamental support, while softer U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at zinc mines in Central and Southwest China are set to reduce concentrate output, with one operation cutting production by roughly 700 tons of metal content. Meanwhile, SHFE-monitored zinc inventories fell 4.17% from last Friday, signalling firm domestic consumption. Globally, the zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG data. For the first nine months of the year, the refined zinc surplus stood at 120,000 tons, higher than the 107,000-ton surplus in the same period of 2024. China’s refined zinc output showed mixed trends—down 4% month-on-month in September but up more than 20% year-on-year, while cumulative January–September production increased nearly 9%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.44% to 3,112 as prices slipped 0.3 rupees. Zinc now finds support at 308.8, with a potential decline toward 307.3, while resistance lies at 312.2, and a breakout may lift prices toward 314.1. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 307.3-314.1.

*  Zinc fell as LME stocks jumped, up 60% since early November, easing supply worries.

*  Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

*  A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

Aluminium   

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.45% to 276.8, supported by expectations of additional stimulus in China after market speculation surrounding a 400-billion-yuan mortgage subsidy package boosted sentiment in the property sector. However, demand concerns persisted as SHFE aluminium inventories rose 7.25% from last Friday. On the supply side, LME warehouse data showed Russian-origin aluminium rising to 53% of available stocks in November, while Indian-origin metal held steady at 40%. Although Russian metal increased only marginally by 850 tons, its share expanded as material from Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Indonesia declined. Indian stocks rose by 12,175 tons to 214,525 tons, highlighting steady export flows. Supply risks also underpinned prices as Chinese smelters approached government-imposed capacity limits, tightening domestic output prospects. Global supply concerns deepened further due to disruptions such as the suspension of a potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and Alcoa’s decision to shut its Kwinana alumina refinery. Century Aluminium also curtailed two-thirds of its Iceland production due to electrical failures. IAI data showed global primary aluminium output rising modestly by 0.6% year-on-year in October to 6.294 million tonnes, while aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 3.6% to 329,100 tons, reinforcing broader supply constraints. Technically, the market is in short covering as open interest declined 0.85% to 2,930 while prices gained 1.25 rupees. Aluminium now has support at 275, with further weakness potentially taking prices to 273. Resistance is positioned at 279.2, and a breakout above this level could drive prices toward 281.4. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 273-281.4.

*  Aluminium prices rebounded on hopes for more stimulus in top metals consumer China.

*  The percentage of available aluminium stocks of Russian origin in LME warehouses increased to 53% in November from 51% in October.

*  Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.25% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures surged 4.22% to 15,014 as weather-related disruptions tightened near-term supply. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have affected yields, with large inflows from these states reaching Erode, where persistent moisture has triggered disease outbreaks and created challenges in preserving stocks. Additional support stemmed from reports that recent rainfall in Nanded damaged nearly 15% of the area under turmeric. Farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and no fresh arrivals have been seen for two consecutive days, keeping spot supplies tight. However, upside momentum remains partially capped by expectations of higher acreage. Favorable rains during the sowing window and improved profitability prospects have encouraged expansion, with preliminary estimates indicating a 15–20% rise in planted area. For the 2024–25 season, total turmeric acreage stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. Market participants continue to monitor weather developments and crop progress, while cautious selling and low inflows lend firmness to prices. Export demand has remained constructive. Turmeric exports during April–September 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes versus the year-ago period. September shipments increased 7.59% year-on-year to 16,523.10 tonnes, though they fell 3.58% from August levels. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices closed at 15,014.4, up 1.07%. Technically, the market is in short covering, reflected in a 7.73% drop in open interest to 6,685 while prices advanced by 608 rupees. Immediate support lies at 14,568, with deeper weakness toward 14,124 if breached. Resistance is positioned at 15,300, and a breakout above this threshold could lift prices toward 15,588. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 14124-15588.

*  Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

*  Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

*  Support also seen as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15014.4 Rupees gained by 1.07 percent.

Jeera  

Jeera yesterday settled 1.78% higher at 21215 as weather disruptions, uneven rainfall, and delayed sowing in Gujarat continued to lend support to prices. Sowing in the state reached 2,60,925 hectares, marginally lower by 0.45% from last year as farmers struggled to prepare fields due to erratic rains. Arrivals at Unjha remained very low, with good-quality cumin fetching higher bids. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive. Comfortable domestic stocks, weak overseas interest, and the end of the retail season are capping strong upside momentum. Still, downside remains limited as low arrivals and level-based buying support market sentiment. The GST rate cut to 5% is expected to aid FMCG demand and boost long-term price stability. Carry-forward stocks remain heavy at nearly 16 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end. Production for the current year is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags versus last year’s 1.10 crore bags, indicating a notable supply contraction. Gujarat’s output is expected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Global production is also constrained, with China’s estimates reduced to 70–80 thousand tons due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9–12 thousand tons each. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 declined 14.51% to 1,01,898.64 tonnes, highlighting subdued foreign demand despite month-on-month improvement. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell 8.26% to 2367 while prices edged higher by 370 rupees. Jeera now finds support at 20910, with a further decline opening doors to 20600, while resistance is placed at 21440, and a breakout may lead prices toward 21660. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 20600-21660.

*  Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

*  However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

*  In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 2,60,925 hectares down by 0.45% compared to last years 2,62,115 hectares.

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20971.65 Rupees dropped by -0.18 percent.

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