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Gold

Gold settled higher by 0.59% at 97,788 as investors assessed mixed signals from the latest U.S. economic data and awaited further clarity on President Trump’s evolving trade policy direction. U.S. consumer prices rose in June by the most in five months, underscoring the impact of new tariffs and fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady at least until September to manage any tariff-driven inflation pressures. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan’s comments reinforced this cautious tone, aligning with the CME FedWatch Tool’s reading of a 59.9% probability for a rate cut in September, while a hold at 4.25%–4.50% is widely expected at the July meeting. On the global front, central banks continued to underpin physical demand with net purchases of 20 tonnes in May, led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore — reflecting steady official sector interest despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Physical gold demand across Asia, however, remained muted as price volatility deterred fresh buying, though tighter local supplies helped narrow discounts in India to up to $8 per ounce, from last week’s wider spread. Chinese premiums stayed firm between $10–$25 per ounce above global spot benchmarks, showing robust dealer appetite amid limited imports. Technically, gold is under short covering as open interest dropped by 0.9% to 10,624 while prices rose by 577. Immediate support is now at 97,160, with a break below potentially testing 96,530. On the upside, resistance is likely at 98,350, and a sustained move above this level could open the path to test 98,910 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 96565-98005.

* Gold prices fell as evidence of a strong US economy limited the urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates.

* Headline and control retail sales rose more than expected in June.

* Initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week to a three-month low.

Silver

Silver settled slightly higher by 0.13% at 1,11,635, as a pullback in the US dollar and Treasury yields offered precious metals fresh buying support. The easing came as investors digested dovish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who emphasized that interest rates may need to stay elevated longer to manage inflation pressures, especially amid fresh tariff risks on US imports like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors starting August 1 under President Trump’s plan. Domestically, silver remains well-supported by robust investment sentiment. Indian silver ETFs saw strong inflows of 39.25 billion in the June quarter—well ahead of the 23.67 billion that went into gold ETFs during the same period—highlighting a clear investor preference for silver’s potential upside. Retail investment demand in India climbed 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, fuelled by expectations of sustained price gains. India’s silver imports also surged, jumping 431% year-on-year in May to 544.1 tons, while June imports nearly doubled from a year ago to 197 tons, underlining solid physical demand despite the high price levels. Globally, silver ETPs recorded net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, already surpassing total inflows for all of 2024. Technically, silver is under short covering, as open interest dropped by 4.35% to 17,849 while prices edged higher by 149. Immediate support is seen at 1,10,855, with a break lower likely to test 1,10,080. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 1,12,350; a move above this may open the door for a test of 1,13,070.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 110150-113530.

* Silver gains as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and monitored shifting trade dynamics.

* The US dollar index climbed above 98.7, reaching its highest level in over three weeks.

* Stronger-than-expected retail sales data eased concerns about consumer spending.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled higher by 1.38% at 5,792, supported by falling US inventories and renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The market drew strength from a sharp drop in US crude stocks, which fell by 3.859 million barrels for the week ending July 11, highlighting robust demand despite recent supply increases. Although inventories at the Cushing hub rose marginally by 213,000 barrels, higher gasoline and distillate fuel stocks did little to ease concerns about overall tightness. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reinforced bullish sentiment, noting that recent output gains have not translated into surplus stockpiles, suggesting global markets remain “thirsty” for oil. Adding to supply worries, drone attacks for the third consecutive day on oilfields in Iraq’s Kurdistan region forced production cuts of 140,000–150,000 barrels per day, severely damaging infrastructure and threatening worker safety. On the production front, the US Energy Information Administration revised its 2025 crude output forecast slightly lower to 13.37 million bpd, down from 13.42 million bpd, as weaker oil prices and economic uncertainty linked to President Trump’s tariff policies have led US producers to scale back drilling activity. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest surging by 17.49% to 8,686 while prices rose 79. Immediate support lies at 5,723, and a break below could drag prices towards 5,654. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,835, with a sustained move above this level likely to push prices towards 5,878.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5654-5878.

* Crude oil prices rose amid low inventories and renewed Middle East risks supporting the market.

* Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 3.859 million barrels, after two consecutive weeks of increases

* IEA said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 1.22% at 306.1, supported by sustained hot weather conditions across the US that continue to drive robust cooling demand. With power generators burning more gas to keep air conditioners running, demand levels remain firm as meteorologists forecast above-normal temperatures through at least August 1, with the peak heat of the summer expected next week. Meanwhile, the US National Hurricane Center lowered the chance of a tropical system strengthening off the Gulf Coast, easing some supply disruption concerns. On the production side, output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, surpassing the June record of 106.4 bcfd, according to LSEG. Despite this higher output, robust demand is helping balance the market. LSEG expects total US gas demand, including exports, to ease slightly from 110.0 bcfd this week to 107.5 bcfd next week, as short-term injections into storage remain healthy. US utilities injected 46 billion cubic feet into storage last week, lifting total inventories to 3.052 trillion cubic feet—6.2% above the five-year average, underscoring a comfortable supply cushion. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh buying as open interest rose by 6.3% to 18,660 while prices gained 3.7. Immediate support is at 302.3, with a drop below opening a test of 298.4. Resistance is seen at 311.1, and a breakout could lift prices towards 316.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 298.4-316.

* Natural gas up as hot weather lifts demand for power to run air conditioners.

* US utilities injected 46 bcf of natural gas into storage, bringing total inventories to 3.052 tcf.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would mostly remain hotter than normal through at least August 1.

Copper

Copper closed slightly higher by 0.15% at 882.6, recovering on short covering after recent declines driven by rising warehouse stocks and tariff-related flows. The price uptick comes despite the market grappling with growing supplies in Asia and shifting trade dynamics ahead of the looming US 50% import tariff effective August 1. This shift is reflected in the widening discount for the cash contract against the three-month forward, now at $64.5 per ton—a sharp reversal from the significant premium of $320 just three weeks ago, signaling an easing of near-term squeeze fears. Adding to the supply-side weight, China’s refined copper production in June surged 14% year-on-year to a record level, while major Chilean producers like Codelco and Antofagasta also reported strong first-half output growth of 9% and 11% respectively, driven by better mine performance. Meanwhile, China’s copper imports rebounded 8.7% in June to 464,000 tons, bucking two months of declines, though year-to-date imports still lag last year’s levels as global inventories remain in flux. Despite robust supply, the global refined copper market posted a 50,000-ton deficit in April, highlighting that underlying demand remains steady, especially when adjusting for changes in bonded stocks in China. Technically, copper is under short covering as open interest fell by 9.48% to 5,622 while prices edged higher by 1.35. Support is pegged at 879.7, with a break below likely to test 876.7. Resistance is seen at 884.3; a sustained move above this could push prices towards 885.9 in the short term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 876.7-885.9.

* Copper gains  on short covering after prices dropped as the dollar strengthened and Asian warehouses stocks kept on rising.

* China's data showed that the country's refined copper production in June rose 14% year-on-year to a record high.

* The discount for the cash copper contract against the three-month forward contract widening to $64.5 a ton, a five-month high.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.82% at 258.55, extending gains on short covering as supply-side constraints outweighed persistent demand concerns. Heavy rains disrupted production at several smelters in South China, curbing refined output just as inventories in Shanghai Exchange warehouses rose 10.2% from the previous week. While the uptick in stocks signals near-term supply comfort, weather-related disruptions and planned smelter maintenance have kept downside limited. On the macro front, China’s GDP growth for Q2 slowed to 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below Q1’s 5.4% but ahead of the 5.1% consensus, suggesting the world’s top zinc consumer remains resilient despite weaker exports and low consumer confidence. Globally, mined output pressures persist. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine, the world’s largest zinc mine, reported a significant 20% annual drop in output, and Australia’s Nyrstar is cutting its annual smelter output by 25% due to ore shortages and uncompetitive treatment charges. The global surplus narrowed to 16,000 metric tons in April from 23,400 tons in March, while cumulative surpluses for the first four months of 2025 have shrunk compared to last year, reflecting tightness in mined supply. Technically, zinc is under short covering, with open interest down by 5.75% to 2,510 while prices rose 2.1. Immediate support is at 256.3; a break lower could test 253.9. Resistance is seen at 260, and a breakout above this may push prices towards 261.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 253.9-261.3.

* Zinc gained on short covering as production at some smelters in South China was affected by heavy rain.

* China’s economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter in a show of resilience against U.S. tariffs.

* Australian smelter Nyrstar announced it would cut this year's output by 25%.

Aluminium

Aluminium edged higher by 0.36% to close at 249.05 as the market saw mild short covering despite mixed fundamentals. Prices found some support on expectations of tighter supply from top producer China, which faces annual production caps of 45 million tons to help meet carbon emission goals. This coincided with hopes of stronger European demand as EU countries plan to ramp up defense goods production while Russian supply remains constrained by sanctions. Latest data showed available aluminium inventories at the LME rose by over 15,000 tonnes to 415,000 tonnes for the week ending July 15, indicating comfortable near-term supply. Similarly, Shanghai Exchange aluminium stocks rose by 9.1% from the previous week, highlighting sluggish factory activity in China amid another contractionary NBS Manufacturing PMI. China’s June aluminium production dipped 3.23% month-on-month but was still up 3.4% year-on-year at 3.81 million tonnes, with output for the first half of 2025 climbing 3.3% to 22.38 million tonnes.  On the export front, China shipped 489,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and related products in June, down from May’s 547,000 tonnes, with year-to-date volumes declining 5.1% year-on-year, reflecting tempered global demand.  Technically, aluminium is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 6.19% to 2,608 while prices rose by 0.9. Support is seen at 247.8, with a break below likely to test 246.6. Resistance is pegged at 249.7, and a move above could push prices towards 250.4 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 246.6-250.4.

* Aluminium gains as output from top producer China was due to slow this year.

* Supply for European factories is already limited due to sanctions of major producer Russia.

* Available inventory at the LME rose by over 15,000 tonnes to 415,000 on the week to July 15th.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled marginally lower by 0.03% at 13,320, as market sentiment remained weighed down by expectations of higher acreage this season due to favourable monsoon conditions. Arrivals in key markets increased to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals in the previous session, signalling a steady rise in availability. On the production side, dry weather has supported timely sowing, and early estimates suggest turmeric acreage may expand by 15–20% this season, as farmers shift to turmeric over less profitable alternatives. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric has reached 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, production gains may not be proportional to the acreage increase, as untimely rains could impact productivity. Last year, India produced about 10.75 lakh tonnes of turmeric, but yields from the new crop are expected to be 10–15% lower, especially in regions like Nanded, which face challenges from smaller rhizomes and crop rot. Despite this, market activity remains strong, especially in Duggirala, where fresh arrivals continue to attract good premiums due to better quality. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose 6% year-on-year in April 2025 but slipped marginally by 0.92% month-on-month. In Nizamabad, spot prices eased 0.45% to 14,039.7. Technically, turmeric is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 0.62% to 17,735 while prices slipped 4. Immediate support lies at 12,992, with a drop below likely to test 12,666. Resistance is seen at 13,592, with a move above opening the path to 13,866.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12666-13866.

* Turmeric settled flat due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14039.7 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled higher by 0.59% at 19,545 as short covering emerged after recent losses driven by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders noted that the conclusion of the peak buying period and a lack of fresh overseas orders have pressured sentiment, despite comfortable supplies and adequate carry-forward stocks. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season’s end, leaving an estimated 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock for the next cycle. Production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to a reduction in sowing area despite favorable crop conditions. In Gujarat, production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags and in Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Global supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have not yet translated into stronger export demand for India, keeping market confidence subdued. India’s exports in April 2025 dropped sharply by 48.11% year-on-year but rose 13.74% month-on-month versus March, indicating patchy export momentum. At Unjha, spot prices dipped 0.3% to 19,914.3. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest down 1.96% to 6,159 while prices rose by 115. Immediate support is seen at 19,370 and below this, prices may test 19,180. On the upside, resistance is likely at 19,710, and a break above could push prices towards 19,860.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19180-19860.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19914.3 Rupees dropped by -0.3 percent.

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