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Gold

Gold prices slipped -0.7% to settle at 1,09,052 as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement. The Fed delivered a 25 bps rate cut as anticipated but struck a cautious tone on further easing, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing a “meeting-by-meeting” approach amid signs of labor market weakness. While this cautious stance trimmed near-term bullishness, gold continues to draw long-term support from expectations of further rate cuts and safe-haven flows. On the fundamental side, global banks remain optimistic, with Commerzbank projecting $3,600 per ounce by end-2025 and $3,800 by 2026, while UBS sees $3,800 by end-2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026. ETF holdings are also projected to edge above 3,900 tons, nearing record highs. However, physical demand across Asia stayed muted due to record-high prices. Discounts in China widened to $17–$24 per ounce, while India saw modest discounts of $6 and slight premiums of $2, reflecting weak retail appetite. Despite this, central bank buying continued, with the People’s Bank of China extending purchases for a 10th straight month. Technically, gold is under long liquidation as open interest dropped -9.49% to 12,588 with prices sliding -770. Support is placed at 1,08,560 and a break below could open 1,08,070, while resistance is seen at 1,09,670, with potential to test 1,10,290 on sustained strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 108070-110290.

* Gold declined pressured by a rising US dollar following the Fed’s policy decision.

* The Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected and signaled that borrowing costs may continue to decline gradually.

* Gold exports from Switzerland to China jumped 254% in August compared with July to their highest level since May 2024

Silver

Silver prices edged up 0.12% to settle at 1,27,132, recovering on short covering after recent declines triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance. While the Fed cut rates by 25 bps, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a measured, “risk-management” approach to easing, signaling two more cuts this year but only one in 2026, contrary to broader market expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims fell sharply to 231,000, underscoring some resilience in the labor market despite recent distortions from fraudulent filings. On the demand front, silver continues to benefit from strong industrial consumption, especially in solar, EV, and electronics sectors, coupled with persistent supply constraints. Silver-backed ETPs reported net inflows of 95 Moz in H1 2025, lifting global holdings to 1.13 Boz — just 7% below record highs — with valuations surpassing $40 billion for the first time. Retail investment trends remain mixed: Europe shows gradual recovery from low levels, while India posted a robust 7% YoY gain in H1 2025, reflecting bullish price expectations. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver deficit is projected to narrow 21% to 117.6 Moz in 2025, with industrial demand steady after a record 680.5 Moz in 2024, while jewelry and silverware demand dips. Technically, silver is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.4% to 17,824 while prices gained 148. Support lies at 1,25,870, below which 1,24,600 may be tested, while resistance is placed at 1,27,970, with a breakout potentially pushing prices to 1,28,800.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 124600-128800.

* Silver rebounds on short covering after Fed’s expected quarter-point rate cut

* The Fed signaled two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against expectations for two or three cuts next year.

* Initial jobless claims in the US sank by 33,000 from the previous week to 231,000 on the second week of September.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures slipped 0.97% to settle at 5,591, pressured by persistent oversupply concerns and weak fuel demand trends in the U.S. Despite global oil demand averaging 104.4 million bpd through September 17, slightly below JP Morgan’s forecast, the slowdown in travel activity in the U.S. and China after the summer peak kept sentiment subdued. On the other hand, demand from Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America remains steady, while OPEC officials, including Kuwait’s oil minister, expect renewed demand strength from Asia following the recent U.S. interest rate cut. On the supply side, QatarEnergy lifted the term price for al-Shaheen crude for November loading to the highest in eight months, reflecting firm regional fundamentals. U.S. government data added to market volatility, with crude inventories plunging by 9.3 million barrels to 415.4 million, far exceeding expectations of a minor draw. Gasoline stocks also declined by 2.3 million barrels, while distillates rose sharply by 4 million barrels, well above forecasts. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its optimistic global oil demand growth outlook for this year and next, citing robust economic growth and noting that OPEC+ raised output by 509,000 bpd in August as Saudi Arabia continues efforts to regain market share. Technically, the crude market is under long liquidation, with open interest plunging by 62.68% to 2,424 as prices fell by 55. Support lies at 5,554, below which 5,517 may be tested, while resistance is pegged at 5,660, with a break above opening room for 5,729.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5517-5729.

* Crude oil prices dropped as persistent oversupply and soft fuel demand in the U.S. weighed on the market.

* US Fed cuts rates, signals further reductions amid economic concerns

* Kuwait expects increased oil demand post-rate cut, especially from Asia

Natural gas

Natural gas futures plunged 4.64% to settle at 259, pressured by a larger-than-expected storage build and subdued demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that energy firms injected 90 bcf into storage for the week ended September 12, well above forecasts of 81 bcf, last year’s 56 bcf, and the five-year average of 74 bcf. Mild weather reduced both heating and cooling demand, allowing higher injections, while LNG exports also softened slightly to 15.7 bcfd so far in September, compared to 15.8 bcfd in August. On the supply side, output in the Lower 48 averaged 107.4 bcfd in September, slightly below August’s record 108.3 bcfd but still elevated. Storage levels remain 0.1% below last year but are 6.3% above the five-year average, keeping fundamentals bearish. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. dry gas production will rise from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 106 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to climb from 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.5 bcfd in 2025 before dipping in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest jumped 19.55% to 27,634 alongside the sharp decline in prices. Support is seen at 253.7, below which 248.4 could be tested, while resistance is likely at 269.1, with a breakout above paving the way toward 279.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.4-279.2.

* Natural gas fell after report energy firms added more gas to storage than expected last week.

* Energy firms in the US injected 90 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended September 12.

* Mild weather curbed both heating and cooling demand, allowing for higher injections.

Copper

Copper futures closed marginally lower by 0.08% at 903.05, weighed by robust supply signals and mixed demand cues. China’s refined copper output surged 15% year-on-year in August, nearing record highs, even as imports of refined copper fell 11.5% from July to 425,000 tons. Meanwhile, imports of copper concentrate rose 8% month-on-month to 2.76 million tons, extending gains as Indonesian miners accelerated shipments ahead of export restrictions. On a cumulative basis, China imported 20.05 million tons of concentrate during January–August, up from 18.59 million tons a year earlier. On the supply front, Chile reaffirmed plans to boost annual copper production toward 6 million tons by 2027, despite persistent operational hurdles at Codelco and Teck Resources’ mines. Codelco’s July production rose 6.4% year-on-year to 118,500 tons, while Escondida output climbed 7.8% to 114,800 tons. However, Collahuasi registered a steep 27.2% decline to 34,200 tons. Globally, the copper surplus narrowed to 36,000 tons in June from 79,000 tons in May, according to the ICSG. For the first half of 2025, the surplus stood at 251,000 tons, well below last year’s 395,000 tons, signaling tighter fundamentals. Inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 14.9% from the prior week, hinting at near-term demand softness. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with open interest dropping 3.85% to 3,367 alongside minor price declines. Support is placed at 899.7, with further downside likely toward 896.2 if breached. Resistance is seen at 907.5, and a breakout above could lift prices toward 911.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 896.2-911.8.

* Copper prices edged lower as China's refined copper output in August jumped 15% year-on-year.

* China's central bank left a key interest rate unchanged, as authorities appear in no rush to ease monetary settings.

* Chile, projects national output to rise this year and next, aiming for a record 6 million tons by 2027.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.3% to settle at 278.45 as traders booked profits following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut, with additional pressure from a firmer dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruled out more aggressive easing. However, the downside remained limited amid tightening supply dynamics and expectations of output reductions in China as authorities push to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors to counter deflationary risks. Economic indicators from China continued to reflect weakness, with August industrial production falling to a one-year low and retail sales slowing to an eight-month low, both missing forecasts. Zinc inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 8.8% from last Friday, while LME stocks dropped sharply to 50,150 tons, down nearly 75% since April. Cancelled warrants totaling 15,375 tons signal further outflows, driving backwardation of around $18 per ton between cash and three-month contracts. On the supply side, China’s zinc output in July jumped 23% YoY, supported by resumed smelter operations despite localized maintenance. September output is forecast to dip slightly by 16,400 tons to 609,800 tons, reflecting some supply disruptions and weather-related constraints. Technically, the market saw long liquidation as open interest dropped 11.46% to 2,618 alongside a price fall of 0.85 rupees. Immediate support lies at 277.3, with potential for a decline to 276.2 if breached, while resistance is pegged at 279.7, with a move above opening the way toward 281.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.2-281.

* Zinc dropped as traders booked profits following a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

* However downside seen limited amid weakening US dollar and tightening supply conditions in China.

* China will deepen fiscal reforms and use fiscal policy tools to support consumption and investment,.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.68% to settle at 259.25, supported by speculative buying and robust demand for physical metal, even as the global market showed signs of surplus. Primary aluminium stocks at the LME fell sharply by nearly 100,000 tonnes in the first part of September to 375,000 tonnes, reflecting strong offtake. In contrast, Japan’s August aluminium stocks rose 6.3% m/m, while the premium of cash aluminium over the three-month contract narrowed to $4 a ton from $16 earlier in the week, indicating easing short-term tightness. On the supply side, Guinea Alumina’s loss of mining licenses raised concerns over disruptions to bauxite supply, potentially impacting Emirates Global Aluminium. However, global fundamentals remained loose, with primary aluminium production in June at 6.094 million tons against consumption of 5.911 million tons, leaving a surplus of 183,100 tons. July’s global output also rose 2.5% YoY to 6.373 million tons, according to IAI data. In Japan, producers have offered Q4 premiums at $98–$103 per ton, down 5–9% from the previous quarter, reflecting subdued demand. Chinese unwrought aluminium exports rose in July to 542,000 tonnes, while imports in August climbed 12.9% YoY to 320,000 tonnes, bringing total imports for the first eight months of 2025 to 2.65 million tonnes, up 2.7% YoY. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped 1.15% to 3,350 while prices gained 1.75 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 257.6, with further downside possible to 256, while resistance is seen at 260.2, with a breakout likely to test 261.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 256-261.2.

* Aluminium gains amid speculative bullish positions and quick demand for physical aluminium.

* Japan's August aluminium stocks rise 6.3% m/m.

* The premium of the cash aluminium contract to the three-month contract had narrowed to $4 a ton, from $16 a ton.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled slightly higher by 0.2% at 12100 as recent heavy rainfall in major growing regions, particularly Nanded, damaged around 15% of the standing crop, adding support to prices. Weather developments remain a key driver, with IMD forecasting normal to below-normal rainfall in parts of South India during September, raising concerns for growers. However, upside remains capped as favourable rains during the sowing season are expected to push turmeric acreage up by 15–20% for 2024–25, with the area rising to 3.30 lakh hectares compared to 3 lakh hectares last year. On the supply front, turmeric stocks in Warangal are nearly depleted, and fresh arrivals have paused in the last two days. At the Duggirala market, new crop arrivals continue to attract strong buyer demand, consistently fetching higher prices than old stock due to superior quality. With about 50–55% of the fresh crop already traded, steady inflows are expected to keep market activity strong through June. Exports during April–June 2025 rose 3.12% YoY to 47,949.56 tonnes, though June exports slipped 7.93% YoY and sharply 28.21% MoM, reflecting demand fluctuations. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices eased 0.38% to 12,916.3 rupees. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dipped 0.63% to 16,480 while prices edged up by 24 rupees. Support is seen at 12032, below which 11962 could be tested, while resistance is at 12160, with a breakout potentially lifting prices towards 12218.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11962-12218.

* Turmeric gained as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12916.3 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices remained unchanged at 19,480 as weak domestic and export demand post-retail season kept the market subdued. Traders highlighted that the end of the retail season and limited participation from overseas buyers continue to weigh on prices. Comfortable supplies and muted export activity further added pressure, with demand being met largely from existing stocks. Farmers reportedly hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, out of which only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded this season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. On the production side, the current season is projected to record 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, supported by better crop conditions and healthy sowing. Gujarat is estimated to contribute 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, supply from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remains disrupted, but this has yet to translate into higher Indian exports due to sluggish demand. Exports from India fell sharply by 19.57% YoY during April–June 2025 to 59,247.76 tonnes. However, June shipments rose 10.26% YoY to 16,322.06 tonnes but dropped 29.67% compared to May 2025, reflecting fluctuating overseas interest. In Unjha, spot prices slipped 0.19% to 19,550.5. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 6.73% to 3,855 while prices stayed flat. Support is seen at 19,330, below which 19,170 could be tested, while resistance is at 19,640, with potential to move towards 19,790 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19170-19790.

* Jeera settled flat due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19550.5 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

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