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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.23% to settle at 86,034, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams acknowledged that Trump administration tariffs could add inflationary pressure, though he emphasized uncertainty regarding their impact.  Global central banks continued their strong demand for gold, adding 18 tonnes in January 2025, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). This follows three consecutive years of over 1,000 tonnes of official purchases. Uzbekistan’s central bank led buying with an 8-tonne increase in reserves, while China added 5 tonnes, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic asset. India's gold demand showed improvement in the latter half of the period but remained subdued as prices retreated from all-time highs. Despite this, Indian gold imports are expected to drop by 85% in February to their lowest level in 20 years. Domestic traders offered discounts between $12-$27 per ounce, down from the previous week’s $35 discount. Meanwhile, Chinese gold remained at a discount of up to $3 per ounce, reflecting weak demand. The WGC expects India’s gold consumption to moderate from 2024’s nine-year peak of 802.8 tonnes to a range of 700-800 tonnes in 2025, with investment demand expected to remain strong. Technically, gold remains in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising by 1.9% to 14,837 contracts. Immediate support is at 85,555, with further downside at 85,075, while resistance is seen at 86,330, and a breakout could push prices toward 86,625.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 85075-86625.
* Gold prices gained amid elevated geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index.
* The US trade deficit widened to a record high in January, driven by a 10% surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs.
* Fed’s Williams said that Trump administration tariffs will have some impact on driving up price pressures.


Silver
Silver prices rose by 0.61% to settle at 98,141, supported by a weakening dollar index, which extended its decline for the fourth consecutive session, falling below 104 to its lowest level since November. The dollar's weakness stemmed from concerns over tariffs, a widening U.S. trade deficit, and rising job cuts, though initial jobless claims provided some relief. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points, further supporting silver’s bullish momentum. On the supply side, silver inventories at Comex reached a record high of 403.2 million ounces, reflecting strong stockpiling. Hecla Mining, the largest U.S. silver producer, reported a 13% rise in silver output for 2024, reaching 16.2 million ounces—the second-highest production level in its history. However, demand showed mixed trends. While industrial demand is expected to hit a record high in 2025, U.S. silver coin purchases fell 27% year-over-year in January to 3.5 million ounces, the lowest January demand since 2018. Global silver demand is projected to remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, with a 3% rise in industrial usage offsetting weaker jewelry and silverware demand. Despite increased supply, the silver market is expected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with a shortfall of 149 million ounces in 2025. Technically, silver remains in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising by 5.06% to 20,692 contracts. Immediate support is at 97,525, with a further downside at 96,915, while resistance is seen at 98,535, and a breakout could push prices toward 98,935.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 96915-98935.
* Silver gained as dollar index extended its decline for a fourth consecutive session, slipping below 104.
* Investor sentiment remained fragile amid concerns over tariffs and the US economic outlook.
* The European Central Bank once again lowered its three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices settled 0.49% higher at 5,784, supported by easing U.S. tariff concerns and expectations of further economic stimulus from China. The Trump administration's temporary exemption for automakers in Mexico and Canada from the newly imposed 25% tariffs helped lift sentiment. On the inventory front, U.S. crude oil stocks showed mixed data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected draw of 1.455 million barrels for the week ending February 28, marking the second consecutive week of drawdowns. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprising build of 3.614 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.9 million-barrel increase. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub also rose by 1.124 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell by 1.433 million and 1.318 million barrels, respectively, both exceeding forecasted drawdowns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its crude oil production estimates higher, now expecting output to reach 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its prior estimate of 13.55 million bpd. Despite strong production, demand growth remains weak, with U.S. petroleum and liquid fuel consumption projected at 20.5 million bpd. Brent crude is forecast to average $74 per barrel in 2025 before declining to $66 in 2026. Technically, crude oil remains under short covering, with open interest dropping by 25.73% to 6,896 contracts. Immediate support is at 5,724, with further downside potential to 5,663. Resistance is seen at 5,847, and a breakout could push prices toward 5,909.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5663-5909.
* Crude oil prices rose as U.S. tariff concerns eased and China's finance ministry left the door open to more stimulus measures.
* EIA data showed US crude inventories rose more than expected, adding to oversupply concerns.
* Signs of weakening US oil demand also emerged, with waterborne crude imports hitting a four-year low in February.


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices declined by 3.31% to settle at 373.9, pressured by near-record output and expectations of lower demand next week due to mild weather through late March. However, the downside was limited by record flows to LNG export plants and concerns over potential reductions in gas exports from Canada following the newly implemented U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Production in the Lower 48 U.S. states increased to 105.5 bcfd in March, up from 104.7 bcfd in February. However, on a daily basis, output dropped to a one-week low of 104.7 bcfd after reaching a three-week high of 106.5 bcfd in late February. Storage levels remain a key factor, with U.S. inventories projected to end the winter withdrawal season at a three-year low of 1.760 tcf on March 31, 2025. This is significantly lower than the 2.306 tcf recorded at the end of March 2024 and below the five-year average of 1.878 tcf. U.S. utilities withdrew 80 bcf from storage in the week ending February 28, falling short of market expectations of 96 bcf. The most significant declines were in the South Central (-30 bcf), Midwest (-28 bcf), and East (-22 bcf) regions. Meanwhile, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production to rise from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 to 104.6 bcfd in 2025, with LNG exports expected to reach 14.0 bcfd in 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 8.37% to 17,414 contracts. Natural gas finds support at 367.2, with a further decline possibly testing 360.4. Resistance is seen at 384.9, and a breakout above could push prices towards 395.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 360.4-395.8.
* Natural gas dropped amid near-record output and forecasts for less demand next week.
* However, downside seen limited on record flows to LNG export plants.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.5 bcfd so far in March



Copper
Copper prices rose by 1.23% to settle at 890.85 as U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on copper imports, contradicting earlier statements that the Department of Commerce was still evaluating the move. The tariffs are expected to increase reliance on domestic production, which is currently limited to only two major smelters, given that the U.S. imports nearly half of its copper. In China, supply remains abundant, with smelter treatment charges still below zero, indicating significant overcapacity in refined copper production. Copper inventories in China have surged towards 270,000 tonnes, tripling from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, reported a 2.1% year-on-year decline in copper output for January, totaling 426,889 metric tons. On the global front, the refined copper market posted a 22,000 metric tons deficit in December, narrowing from a 124,000 metric tons deficit in November. For the full year, however, the market remained in surplus by 301,000 metric tons, contrasting with the 52,000 metric tons deficit recorded in the previous year. World refined copper production stood at 2.37 million metric tons in December, while consumption reached 2.39 million metric tons. Additionally, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products rose 17.8% year-on-year in December. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 1.66% to 7,098 contracts. Support is at 883.7, with a further downside target of 876.4. Resistance is seen at 895.9, and a breakout above could push prices towards 900.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 876.4-900.8.
* Copper surged after US President Trump stated that the country would tariff copper imports.
* The US President noted he imposed tariffs on copper along with other base metals in his speech before Congress.
* Treatment charges by smelters were still below zero, reflecting the large extent of overcapacity in refined copper production.


Zinc
Zinc prices rose by 1.49% to settle at 275.8 as concerns over U.S. import tariffs intensified, while fresh stimulus measures from China, Germany’s infrastructure plans, and a weaker dollar provided support. The market remains cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, doubling duties on Chinese goods to 20%. China retaliated with increased import levies on U.S. agricultural and food products, raising fears of an escalating trade war that could impact global economic growth. On the supply side, global mined zinc production declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). China, the largest producer, saw a 7% drop in refined zinc output due to lower processing rates and production cuts at major smelters. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, which contributes 10% of global zinc supply, is expected to slow production in 2025 as it nears ore depletion. The global zinc market swung to a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024, shifting from a surplus of 310,000 tons in 2023 due to lower output. Meanwhile, refined zinc demand remained at 13.6 million tons, as lower consumption in China, Europe, and the U.S. was offset by rising demand in Brazil, India, and South Korea. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 1.56% to 2,343 contracts. Zinc has support at 273.5, with further downside at 271. Resistance is seen at 277.4, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 278.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271-278.8.
* Zinc gains as worries about the U.S. import tariffs widened and China's fresh stimulus measures.
* Global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024
* China's manufacturing activity returned to expansion in February.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices rose by 1.21% to settle at 264.4 as U.S. import tariffs and tightening supply conditions drove the market higher. The looming restoration of 25% tariffs on aluminium imports by U.S. President Donald Trump, effective from March 12, has pushed physical market premiums to record highs. JP Morgan forecasts a severe tightening in the global aluminium market, with a deficit exceeding 600,000 metric tons by 2025, largely due to slowing supply growth, particularly in China. Despite the expected tightening, China produced a record 44 million metric tons of aluminium in 2024. However, output is set to slow considerably as Beijing enforces its 2017 production cap of 25 million tons to curb excess supply and meet carbon emission targets. Resumption of production in China is also exerting some pressure on prices, with domestic operating capacity expected to rise in February. Global primary aluminium output in January increased by 2.7% year-on-year to 6.252 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Additionally, China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products surged by 17% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024, reaching nearly 5.5 million tons. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest declining by 4.29% to 3,146 contracts while prices rose by 3.15 rupees. Aluminium has support at 262.8, with further downside potential at 261.2. Resistance is seen at 265.3, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 266.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 261.2-266.2.
* Aluminium rose as US President Trump's tariffs drive US physical market aluminium premiums to record high
* JP Morgan predicts global aluminium deficit to exceed 600,000 tons in 2025
* Global aluminium output rises 2.7% year on year in January – IAI


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.29% to settle at 52,660 on short covering, after previous declines caused by increased supply and limited mill buying. Mills remain well-stocked, reducing immediate purchasing needs. Brazil’s cotton production for 2024-25 is projected to rise by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with a 4.8% expansion in the cotton planting area, indicating strong supply potential. Meanwhile, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is likely to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to stabilize the market. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), overall cotton output in the current season (2024-25) is expected to drop to 301.75 lakh bales, down from 327.45 lakh bales in 2023-24, primarily due to lower yields in Gujarat and the northern region. Despite the decline in production, the quality of cotton remains high. Total cotton supply by January 2025 was estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, including fresh pressings of 188.07 lakh bales, imports of 16 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Domestic consumption is projected at 315 lakh bales for the season, while exports are estimated at 17 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh bales in the previous season. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.39% to 257 contracts while prices gained 150 rupees. Cottoncandy has support at 52,320, with a further downside test at 51,970. On the upside, resistance is seen at 52,930, and a breakout above could push prices toward 53,190.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 51970-53190.
* Cotton gains  on short covering after prices dropped due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* CCI is likely to buy more than 100 lakh bales of cotton at MSP during the current cotton year.
* CAI the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat and the northern region.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25301.6 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices saw an uptick of 0.94% to settle at 11,988 due to concerns over lower crop yields, particularly in the Nanded region, where small rhizomes and crop rot have been reported. Despite an increase in the turmeric cultivation area to 3.30 lakh hectares, untimely rains have negatively impacted productivity, leading to expectations that total production may remain close to last year's 10.75 lakh tonnes, with a possible fluctuation of 3-5%. The arrival of the new crop in Nizamabad and Hingoli Mandi has started, capping significant price gains. Export and import data further reflect market trends. Turmeric exports between April and November 2024 increased by 9.80% to 121,601.21 tonnes compared to 110,745.34 tonnes during the same period in 2023. However, November exports dropped by 20.18% from October but showed a 48.22% year-on-year increase. On the import side, turmeric imports surged by 101.80% to 18,937.95 tonnes in the same April-November 2024 period, although November imports saw a 34.84% decline from October and a 2.65% dip year-on-year. From a technical perspective, the turmeric market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a slight drop in open interest (-0.04%) to 12,760 contracts while prices rose by 112 rupees. The key support level is at 11,888, with a potential test at 11,786 if downward pressure continues. On the upside, resistance is seen at 12,066, and a move above this level could push prices toward 12,142.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11786-12142.
* Turmeric rose as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* Support also seen amid concerns over slow growth of rhizomes and low yield estimates persist.
* However upside seen limited as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12579.75 Rupees dropped by -0.78 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices edged up by 0.16% to settle at 21,430 as the arrival of the new crop in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month due to unfavorable weather. The delayed sowing in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan has contributed to supply concerns. However, upside potential remains limited as demand is currently subdued, and export needs are being met from existing stock. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by season-end, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Despite a higher sowing area, cumin production for the 2023-24 season is expected to remain similar to last year due to stable crop conditions. The Spices Board reported that cumin seed production increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from 11.87 lakh hectares, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares in the previous year. Strong export demand, particularly from China and other global buyers, is expected to support prices, as Indian cumin remains the cheapest option globally, with prices at $3,050 per tonne—$200 to $250 lower than Chinese cumin.  From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 3.62% to 2,319 contracts while prices rose by 35 rupees. Support is seen at 21,280, with further downside potential towards 21,120 if selling pressure intensifies. Resistance is likely at 21,540, and a breakout above could push prices towards 21,640.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21120-21640.
* Jeera gains as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions.
* However upside seen limited as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21212 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.

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