Top Conviction Ideas : Buy NTPC Ltd for Target Rs. 400 - Axis Securities Ltd

* Total Capacity Addition: NTPC group’s installed capacity grew by 2,716 MW to 82,646 MW in Q1FY26, led by 1,320 MW of thermal capacity addition, 996 MW of solar capacity addition, 150 MW of wind capacity and 250 MW of Hydro PSP additions. The thermal capacity additions include 660 MW of the North Karanpura project and 660 MW of the Barh–1 project. For FY26, the company targets 3.6 GW of thermal capacity addition and 6.5 GW of RE capacity addition.
* Underconstruction and Pipeline Capacity: As of 30th June, 2025, the company’s under construction capacity stood at 30,853 MW vs 33,750 MW in Q4FY25. The under-construction portfolio includes 15,580 MW of thermal capacity, 13,268 MW of RE capacity, and 2,005 MW of Hydro capacity.
* Thermal Capacity: The company targets to add 26 GW over the existing 62 GW, taking the total thermal capacity to 88 GW in the next 5 years. ~17 GW of projects are under construction, and the balance 7.2 will be awarded in FY26. Its focus is on trying to add capacity in brownfield pit head plants.
* RE Capacity: The company targets to increase its RE capacity to 60 GW by 2032 (from its current capacity of 8 GW). It has 24 GW of visible RE pipeline with 14 GW under construction as of 30th June, 2025. In the initial phase, 20 GW of capacity will be added in 3 years and balanced in the next 2 years. NTPC plans to add 6 GW of RE capacity in FY26, of which 1.4 GW is added by Q1FY26. For the current year’s RE capacity additions, 100% land connectivity is in place, and 86% PPA is tied up. For FY27, out of the planned 8,196 MW, 80% of PPAs are tied up, with 100% of the land and 82% of connectivity secured. For FY28, out of the targeted 8 GW, 93% of the land is secured, 76% connectivity is in place, and 60% of PPAs are tied up.
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