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Nifty : 22402

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmark inched upward over fourth consecutive session supported by buoyant global cues. Nifty settled the session at 22402, up 34 points. The market breadth remained in favour of advances with A/D ratio of 1.6:1 as Nifty midcap, small cap gained ~0.4%, each. Sectorally, metal, healthcare stocks were outlier while IT stocks extended breather

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty started the session on a positive note and recorded high of 22476. However, index pared most of initial gains owing to fag end profit booking. The daily price action formed a doji like candle, indicating breather after recent up move amid volatility. In the process, Nifty Small cap index endured its northbound journey and recorded fresh All Time High.

* Going ahead, we maintain our positive bias and expect Nifty to challenge the life high of 22775 in coming month. In the process, we expect Nifty to hold the key support of 22000. Thus, buying dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt amid progression of Q4 earnings

* Structually, key observation has been that, Nifty’s two corrections since January 2024 has been 5% each and even last week index maintained this price behaviour, by recovering post 5% correction from life highs and also held lower band of past three-month rising channel, despite geopolitical worries

* Going ahead, bouts of volatility amid geo-political tensions, earnings and elections may not be ruled out. However, investors should not panic, rather continue to invest in good companies during episodes of volatility. We reiterate our structurally positive stance, as we have seen in the past that once anxiety around such events settles down, markets tend to resume their primary up trend

* Formation of higher peak and trough makes us confident to revise support base at 22000 is based on confluence of:

* a) 61.8% retracement of recent up move 21778-22447

* b) 20 days EMA is placed at 22140

Nifty Bank: 48189

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

The Nifty Bank index maintained its winning streak for fourth session led by private banking stocks . Nifty Bank index closed the session at 48189 , up 0 .45 % or 218 points

Technical Outlook

* Index commenced the session on positive note and then gained further ground to in morning hour, followed by a sideways choppy trade for rest of the session as prior weeks high around 48200 levels proved hurdle amid monthly expiry session . Price action for the day formed an inside bar indicating breather after 1700 points in preceding three sessions

* In the coming couple of sessions, slow down in upward momentum may not be ruled out as index is likely to undergo retracement of recent gains and consolidate . However, such retracement would offer incremental buying opportunity as eventually we expect index to take out 48200 levels and head towards life highs of 49000 mark . PSU banks and NBFCs would be in focus amid earnings

* Key observation has been that index has held 100 -day ema for third time since February 2024 and maintained its rhythm of higher bottom indicating improving price structure

* Structurally, index is undergoing a retracement of past couple of months rally and would help prices to come out of over bought readings .

* We revise key immediate support for Index at 46900 as it is confluence of :

* Value of rising 100 -day ema

* 80 % retracement of past three day gains

* Key trend line connecting swing lows of Jan,feb and march 2024

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