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Nifty : 25015

Technical Outlook

Week that was…

Nifty snapped three-week winning streak tracking escalating geopolitical worries and settled the week with a biggest cut since June22 of 4.3% at 25050 amid heavy sell off by FII’s. Barring Metal, all major indices ended in red weighed down by financials, auto, realty.

Technical Outlook:

* The index started the week on a negative note and accelerated downward momentum on the breach of last week’s low of 25800. As a result, weekly price action resulted into sizable bear candle with biggest weekly loss of 4.3% since June 2022, indicating corrective bias as contrary to our view, Nifty breached key support of 25800 and settled below it. In the process, RSI oscillator has witnessed positive divergence on hourly charts indicating impending pullback

* The index started the week on a negative note and accelerated downward momentum on the breach of last week’s low of 25800. As a result, weekly price action resulted into sizable bear candle, indicating corrective bias as contrary to our view, Nifty breached key support of 25800 and settled below it.

* In the upcoming eventful week, we believe strong support for the Nifty is placed at 24800, holding above which would keep pullback options open amid oversold conditions (Daily stochastic oscillator is placed at 5). In the process, volatility to remain high while discounting development on ongoing geopolitical concerns coupled with RBI Policy and start of Q2FY25 earning season which would further dictate the trend. Only a decisive close below 24800 would lead to extended correction towards 24400.

* Structurally, key point to highlight is that, in CY24, on 5 occasions intermediate corrections have been limited to the tune of 5-6% range while respecting 50 days EMA and time wise such corrections have been arrested within 6-7 sessions and subsequently witnessed a decent up move. In current scenario, with 5% correction behind us, index has approached 50 days EMA amid oversold conditions. Thereby, a decisive close above previous session’s high would be the first sign of pause in downward momentum that would open the door for pullback towards 25500 in coming week

* Crude oil would be the key monitorable amid escalation of geopolitical worries. The current up move appears to be more of technical pullback from oversold territory. We expect, it to face stiff resistance in the 80- 82 zone

* Sectorally, IT, Metal, Pharma are expected to relatively outperform while BFSI, capital goods, oil & gas offers bargain buy opportunity

Nifty Bank : 51462

Technical Outlook

Week that was :

Nifty Bank index concluded truncated week on a negative note tracking global volatility owing to geopolitical tension in the middle east . Index settled the week at 51462 , down 4 . 3 % while PSU bank index was down 2 %

Technical Outlook :

* The Index started the truncated week on a negative note and gradually inched southward as the week progressed . The weekly price cation resulted into sizable bear candle carrying lower high low indicating corrective bias as index snapped three weeks winning streak .

* The formation of lower high -low on the daily chart . The lack of follow through strength signifies corrective bias going forward . Key point to highlight since Jan -24 is that, on multiple occasions buying demand emerged from 100 days EMA . In current scenario, with 4 % correction in last week index is approaching 100 days EMA (placed at 51000 ) amid oversold conditions as daily stochastic oscillator is poised at 6 levels. Thus holding above 51000 would keep pullback option open towards 52600 . Failure to do so would lead to extended correction towards 49600

* PSU bank index is hovering around key support and expected to attract supportive efforts near their long term mean . Apart from technical oversold conditions, potential of lower interest rates are expected to act as tailwind for banks .

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