Copper up 40 pc globally in FY26; H1 FY27 forecast at $11,000-$12,000 per tonne
Global copper prices have surged nearly 40 per cent this fiscal (FY26), reaching around $13,000 per tonne by January 2026, driven by persistent mine-side supply disruptions, declining ore grades and inventory dislocations across exchanges, a report said on Friday.
Ratings agency ICRA said in the report that tight supply conditions outside the United States and uncertainty around tariffs are expected to support prices in the range of $11,000–12,000 per tonne in H1 FY27.
However, it maintained that potential downside risks for copper prices cannot be ruled out in FY 27.
Copper market will remain in deficit through CY25 and CY26, as supply growth continues to lag demand, thereby supporting prices, the agency forecasted.
Tariff-related uncertainties in the US and the risk of renewed trade actions have led to inventory build-ups at COMEX and drawdowns at London Metal Exchange (LME), tightening availability outside United States.
"Stocks in COMEX-registered warehouses increased sharply to around 498 kilo tonnes (kt) by December 2025 from around 98 kt in January 2025, reflecting front-loading of refined copper imports into the US ahead of potential tariff actions under review in June 2026," the report mentioned.
Further, ongoing mine supply disruptions contributed to the sharp price rally in recent months.
Elevated copper prices are expected to pose near-term demand moderation risks, particularly in price-sensitive end-use segments.
Softening physical premiums in China indicated emerging demand sensitivity at higher price levels, suggesting risks of demand deferral or substitution in the near term, the agency predicted.
India’s domestic copper consumption is expected to grow at 10–12 per cent annually over the next two years, although the pace is likely to moderate from the elevated 14–15 per cent growth seen in seven months of FY26.
Over the medium term, India’s copper demand is expected to be increasingly driven by energy-transition-linked applications, including renewable energy, power grids, data centres and electric vehicles.
ICRA forecasted upstream copper entities to likely benefit from firm prices, supporting operating profitability, while downstream smelting and refining entities could face margin pressure.
