The Bank Nifty started the week on a positive note, settling at 55,734 up 0.71% - ICICI Direct
Nifty :24877
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
The Indian equity benchmark closed on a positive note and settled the session at 24,877, up 1% amid positive geopolitical cues backed by GST reforms from the government that lifted investor sentiment. Both Midcap and small cap indices closed positive up 1.08% and 1.38%, respectively. Sectorally, Barring IT, Pharma all indices closed in green, where, Auto, Consumer Durable and Realty outshone.
Technical Outlook:
* After six-weeks of consecutive decline, the Nifty index staged a strong recovery by reclaiming its previous week's range and starting the new week with a notable gap-up opening. Nifty even briefly traded above the psychological 25000 mark but settled just below it as profit booking emerged at higher levels. The daily price action resulted into bull candle carrying a small wick on higher side, indicating breather after a current strong up move.
* Going ahead, follow through strength above 25000 would open the door for extension of pullback rally towards 25300. Failure to do so would result into consolidation in 25000-24500 range amid stock specific action. Hence, focus should be on buying quality stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as strong support is placed at 24500 zone.
* Key point to highlight is that, despite tariff headwinds over past couple of months Nifty managed to hold 24500 on a weekly closing basis, indicating most of the negativity around tariff development is now getting priced-in. Hence, any positive development from hereon could boost market sentiment and thereby we expect 24200 to continue to act as key support being 200 days EMA coupled with the Mid-May Gap area and 38.2% retracement of entire up move seen from April lows (21743).
* In technical parlance, 200 days has the utmost importance where long-term accumulation takes place. The index after bouncing from the gap zone (24379-24164) we revise our support at 24200 being 200-days EMA and 38.20% retracement of the entire up move off April low 21743, indicating a higher base is in place. Hence, traders should refrain from creating aggressive short positions in the truncated week. Instead focus should be on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong earnings in a staggered manner.
Key monitorable to watch out for in current volatile scenario:
* 1.Development on India-US trade tariff negotiations
* 2.Jackson Hole and U.S. Fed minutes (August 21-23)
* 3.U.S. Dollar index retreated from past two years breakdown area of 100 and now trading around 98, indicating corrective bias while crude oil pared last week's gains and resumed downward momentum
Nifty Bank : 55734
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
The Bank Nifty started the week on a positive note, settling at 55,734 up 0.71%. The Nifty Pvt Bank index outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 26,924 with a gain of 1%...
Technical Outlook:
* Bank Nifty opened the session with a gap-up, and the daily price action formed a moderate bullish candle with a wick on both ends, leading to some consolidation as profit booking occurred near higher levels.
* The index exhibited a positive recovery and renewed buying interest after a prolonged downtrend, marking a shift in sentiment. Following a six-week corrective phase, Bank Nifty staged a rebound by reclaiming the previous week’s range and commenced the current week with a gap-up opening, signaling the onset of an initial recovery. A sustained move above today’s high would further strengthen momentum and pave the way for the next leg of the uptrend towards the 56,400 marks. Notably, the weekly stochastic oscillator has registered a bullish crossover from the oversold zone, reinforcing prospects of a near-term trend reversal.
* A key point to highlight is that despite tariff-related concerns over the past couple of months, Bank Nifty managed to hold above the 54,900 level on a weekly closing basis, suggesting that much of the negativity surrounding tariff developments is being priced in. Going forward, any favorable outcome on this front could act as a sentiment booster. Technically, the 54,900 level remains a crucial support zone, coinciding with the 100-day EMA and the rising trendline support that has been intact since mid-April 2025. Hence, we expect this level to continue acting as a strong cushion, and any near-term pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
* Structurally Since April, intermediate corrections have remained shallow while the index has consistently held above its 100-day EMA. Moreover, over the past eleven weeks, the index has retraced 50% of the preceding up move from 51863 to 57614 (11%) in the previous six weeks, indicating a slower pace of retracement with a robust price structure, that augurs well for the next leg of the uptrend.
* PSU Bank Index relatively underperformed the benchmark and closed marginally higher. The index has retraced close to the 38.2% level of its preceding 20% rally from 6,052 to 7,250 and rebounded above 7,000 mark, suggesting renewed strength, while maintaining this momentum could open the way for another leg higher toward 7,250. While the Bank Nifty consolidates within 4% of its all-time high, PSU Banks continue to lag significantly, trading 13% below their peak. This presents a potential catch-up opportunity for the sector
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
