Slightly Higher U.S. Rice Ending Stocks Amid Global Supply Surge by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 points to slightly larger supplies due to increased production, with ending stocks raised to 45.7 million cwt. U.S. rice prices remain unchanged at $15.60 per cwt. Globally, rice supplies are set to expand, driven by record-high production in India at 142 million tons. India's removal of its non-basmati rice export ban has also contributed to increased global trade projections. World consumption is expected to reach a new peak of 528.1 million tons, while ending stocks rise to 182.2 million tons, largely due to higher stocks in India.
Key Highlights
* U.S. rice production rises slightly to 219.8 million cwt.
* Ending stocks are up 16% from last year, at 45.7 million cwt.
* Global supplies increase, with India's record 142 million tons production.
* India's removal of export restrictions boosts global rice trade.
* Global ending stocks rise to 182.2 million tons, primarily due to India.
U.S. rice production for the 2024/25 season has seen a slight increase, with total output now forecast at 219.8 million cwt, driven by a minor yield increase. This rise in production leads to higher ending stocks, which are projected to reach 45.7 million cwt, marking a 16% jump compared to last year. However, the season-average farm price remains unchanged at $15.60 per cwt, reflecting stable demand and market conditions.
Supporting this price stability is unchanged domestic use and export figures for U.S. rice, as the market absorbs the slightly higher supplies. Global dynamics are playing a significant role in shaping rice prices, especially with India lifting its export ban on non-basmati white rice in late September. India's production for 2024/25 is forecast to hit a record 142 million tons, driven by favorable monsoon conditions and increased planting.
In the global market, India's removal of export restrictions has led to a rise in projected world trade to 56.5 million tons, while other major exporters like Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan have seen reductions in their export forecasts. The global ending stocks are expected to reach 182.2 million tons, largely due to India's buildup in reserves, which are now projected at a record 43 million tons.
Finally
U.S. rice prices remain stable despite higher supplies, with global dynamics, especially India's policies, shaping the broader market outlook
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