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Gold

Gold faced a substantial decline of -0.98%, closing at 58,822, largely due to the pressure exerted by a tightening labor market. Notably, the U.S. Labor Department reported a surprise drop in weekly jobless claims by 20,000 to 201,000, indicating a robust labor market that exceeded expectations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscored the need for more labor market slack before considering any shift in monetary policy, emphasizing the maintenance of restrictive interest rates to combat inflation. Swiss gold exports surged by 7.3% in August, driven by increased deliveries to India and China, compensating for reduced supplies to Turkey. This was particularly significant as Switzerland serves as a major global hub for gold refining and transit, with China and India being pivotal consumer markets with sensitivity to gold prices and seasonal demand patterns. Shipments to India, gearing up for the October-November festival season, tripled, while exports to China increased by 1%. From a technical perspective, the gold market experienced long liquidation, marked by a -9.4% decrease in open interest to 7,463 and a substantial price drop of -583 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 58,565 and 58,310, while resistance is anticipated at 59,195, with potential for prices to test 59,570.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58310-59570.
* Gold prices fall as U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to March lows
* The latest labor market data was significantly stronger than expected.
* Weekly jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 201,000, down from the previous week's revised estimate of 221,000 claims

Silver

Silver experienced a modest decline of -0.22%, settling at 73,068, influenced by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. These market dynamics were driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signaling the potential for one more interest rate hike and a slower pace of monetary easing. Despite this pressure on silver prices, there was optimism regarding China's economic recovery. Positive economic data and measures implemented by the central bank of China were viewed as supportive factors for the silver market. In contrast, the U.S. housing sector showed signs of weakness as existing home sales declined by 0.7%, reaching an annualized rate of 4.04 million units. This drop in home sales, below expectations, reflects ongoing challenges in the housing market. Additionally, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported a sharp negative turn in its manufacturing sector survey, with the business outlook for September falling into contractionary territory at -13.5, compared to the previous month's positive reading of 12. This data was considerably worse than expected, with economists anticipating a flat reading of -0.7. However, the silver market found support in solid industrial demand and a constrained supply situation. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 0.51% to settle at 15,651, and prices declining by -162 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 71,915 and 70,755, while resistance is anticipated at 73,690, with potential for prices to test 74,305.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70755-74305.
* Silver dropped due to a stronger dollar influenced by the Fed’s hawkish stance.
* The Fed signaled the likelihood of one more interest rate hike and a slower pace of monetary easing.
* The U.S. housing sector continues to weaken following disappointing home sales data.


Crude oil

Crude oil closed with a slight gain of 0.11%, settling at 7,483. The key driver behind this uptick was Russia's announcement of a temporary ban on fuel exports, specifically gasoline and diesel. This move aimed to stabilize domestic fuel prices amid a significant drop in diesel exports in early September. Earlier in the trading session, oil prices had faced downward pressure due to a more hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve, raising concerns that higher interest rates might reduce demand. In terms of supply and inventory data, U.S. crude stocks declined by 2.1 million barrels in the week ending September 15, reaching 418.5 million barrels. This drawdown was slightly less than the expected 2.2 million-barrel drop. Notably, crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub reached their lowest point since July 2022. The drop in inventories was driven by an increase in crude oil exports, while net U.S. crude imports decreased by 3.04 million barrels per day. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed short covering, with a -7.56% decrease in open interest to 6,807 and an 8-rupee price increase. Key support levels are identified at 7,368 and 7,252, while resistance is anticipated at 7,585, with potential for prices to test 7,686.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7252-7686.
* Crude oil surges as Russia bans fuel exports, tight supply worries.
* US oil output from top shale regions set to fall in October – EIA
* US crude inventories fell by 2.135 million barrels last week

Natural gas

Natural gas recorded a notable decline of -3.61%, settling at 218.8, following a federal report that confirmed a storage build in line with market expectations. According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), U.S. utilities added 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, almost in line with the anticipated 67 bcf increase. In September, gas production dipped to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), reaching a 10-week low of 100.6 bcfd. This decrease was influenced by factors such as maintenance at the Cove Point LNG facility in Maryland and reduced operations at Cheniere Energy's LNG Sabine Pass in Louisiana. Despite these fluctuations, gas flows to U.S. LNG export facilities had been increasing, particularly with the return of Freeport LNG's Texas facility to near full capacity. However, daily feedgas experienced a drop to a three-week low of 11.6 bcfd due to maintenance and reductions at certain LNG facilities. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast near-normal weather conditions in the lower 48 states until around September 30, followed by a period of warmer-than-usual weather from October 1 to 6. From a technical standpoint, the natural gas market saw fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 6.85% to settle at 20,423, while prices declined by -8.2 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 214.8 and 210.8, while resistance is likely to be encountered at 226, with potential for prices to test 233.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 210.8-233.2.
* Natural gas fell after a federal report showing a storage build last week
* US utilities added 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week
* Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain near normal until around Sept. 30



Copper

Copper faced a significant decline of -1.11%, closing at 719.15, primarily due to the strengthening dollar and increasing metal inventories. Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses surged to their highest level since May 2022, reaching 162,900 tons. This uptick followed deliveries of 7,200 tons to warehouses in Hamburg, Rotterdam, and New Orleans, indicating ample immediate supply. The discount for near-term delivery compared to the three-month copper contract also rose. On the supply-demand front, the global refined copper market showed a deficit of 19,000 metric tons in July, a decrease from June's 72,000 metric tons deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, for the first seven months of the year, the market was in a surplus of 215,000 metric tons, compared to a deficit of 254,000 metric tons during the same period the previous year. World refined copper output in July stood at 2.30 million metric tons, slightly lower than consumption at 2.32 million metric tons. Adjusted for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a deficit of 29,000 metric tons in July, down from June's deficit of 102,000 metric tons, as reported by the ICSG. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by -6.93% to settle at 3,222, while prices dropped by -8.05 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 711.9 and 704.6, while resistance is likely at 726.1, with potential for prices to test 733.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 704.6-733.
* Copper dropped as dollar rose and data showed further growth in inventories.
* Copper market in 19,000 metric tons deficit in Jul 2023 – ICSG
* For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 215,000 metric tons surplus

Zinc

Zinc faced a modest decline of -0.58%, closing at 222.7, as refined zinc output recovered post-smelter maintenance. On the supply side, refineries have started purchasing raw materials for winter storage, causing zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) to decrease significantly. This points to a consensus that there might be reduced smelter output in Q4. Additionally, low zinc prices and high TCs have led to reports of production cuts at overseas zinc mines. During the Asian Games, production restrictions will be in place around Hangzhou, impacting zinc secondary consumer and terminal companies. Local zinc ingot procurement in Zhejiang has been lackluster. Despite a slight increase in domestic zinc ingot social inventory, it remains relatively low, indicating resilient downstream demand. However, recent trading activity has been subdued. Notably, domestic zinc ingot social inventory is at its lowest level in the past five years. From a technical perspective, the market saw long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -32.88% to 2,299, while prices declined by -1.3 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 220.6 and 218.3, while resistance is likely at 224.2, with potential for prices to test 225.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.3-225.5.
* Zinc prices dropped as refined zinc output has recovered
* During the Asian Games, there will be restrictions on the production in the areas around Hangzhou.
* The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased slightly from the low level


Aluminium 

Aluminium faced a decline of -0.76%, closing at 202.9, with global primary aluminium production rising by 2.4% YoY to 6.044 million tonnes in August. In Europe, industrial customers are delaying contract commitments for 2024 due to concerns of overbuying amidst weakening demand for aluminium products. The market is currently in the phase where companies secure supply deals for aluminium, but a slump in demand for products in transport, construction, and packaging has cast uncertainty. Germany's industrial production dropped more than anticipated in July, while euro zone business activity declined faster than initially reported. In China, aluminium production increased by 3.1% to 3.6 million tonnes in August YoY. The aluminium market also witnessed a minor inventory build-up due to stagnant downstream operations during the peak season. From a technical standpoint, the market saw long liquidation, marked by a -25.88% drop in open interest to 1,993 and a -1.55 rupee price decrease. Key support levels are identified at 201.6 and 200.3, while resistance is likely at 204.4, with potential for prices to test 205.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.3-205.9.
* Aluminium dropped as global output rises 2.4% year on year in August
* Aluminium deals delayed in Europe by cautious buyers amid weak demand
* China's aluminium production rose by 3.1 % to 3.6 million tonnes in August from a year earlier

Cotton 

Cotton prices, represented as "Cottoncandy," experienced a notable decline of -0.85%, closing at 60,540. This drop is in line with the global cotton industry's challenges, which are facing reductions in production and consumption for the 2023-24 outlook. In the U.S., projections show lower cotton production and exports, leading to decreased ending stocks. The season-average price for upland cotton in the U.S. is projected to be 80 cents per pound. India is grappling with a 3.65 lakh hectare decrease in cotton sowing, primarily due to poor monsoon conditions in Gujarat and the closure of major mills. The new cotton crop has started arriving in parts of North and South India, with prices currently above the minimum support price. Cotton picking in Telangana is expected to gain momentum in the coming weeks. The pre-sowing price forecast for cotton in 2023-24 anticipates normal rainfall and increased crop area. In the major spot market of Rajkot, cotton prices closed at 29,268.45 Rupees, marking a decline of -0.32%. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with unchanged open interest at 99 contracts and a substantial decrease of -520 Rupees in prices. Cottoncandy is currently supported at 60,320, with potential further testing at 60,090. Resistance is likely at 60,780, with a potential breakout leading to prices testing 61,010.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60090-61010.
* Cotton dropped as global cotton industry is facing significant reductions in both production and consumption.
* However, heavy rainfall in China's Xinjiang region is expected to impact cotton quality and quantity.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29268.45 Rupees dropped by -0.32 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices took a significant dip of -3.63%, closing at 14,434, driven by profit booking, with sluggish export demand remaining a primary concern for Indian traders. Despite lower supplies and less promising production prospects, the decline is expected to be limited. Turmeric cultivation in Maharashtra has fallen, contributing to uncertainty in price trends but supporting higher prices. Export inquiries have been muted at current levels, adding to price pressure. Farmers shifting their focus may lead to a 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports from April to July 2023 showed a 15.05% increase compared to the same period in 2022. However, there was a significant drop of 24.60% in July 2023 compared to June 2023, despite an 8.05% rise compared to July 2022. While upcoming rainfall in Maharashtra and Telangana is expected to benefit turmeric crops, supply remains constrained. India's vital monsoon, critical for its agriculture-based economy, has picked up pace after an unusually dry August. In the significant spot market of Nizamabad, turmeric prices closed at 13,604.95 Rupees, marking a decline of -0.83%. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with a 0.72% drop in open interest to 13,785 contracts, coinciding with a substantial decrease of -544 Rupees in prices. Turmeric is currently supported at 14,064, with potential further testing at 13,694. Resistance is likely at 14,898, with a potential breakout leading to prices testing 15,362.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13694-15362.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders.
* Supplies are down whereas production prospects are also looking bleak
* The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13604.95 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.

Jeera

Jeera, or cumin, experienced a notable uptick of 0.31% in prices, closing at 60,365, primarily due to dwindling supplies in the local market. Increased demand during the festive season and a scarcity of high-quality crops have prompted millers to purchase whenever prices dip. However, while Indian jeera remains competitively priced globally, overseas demand has remained subdued, particularly from China, a major buyer. China's reduced purchases in recent months are impacting overall exports from India, and the uncertainty surrounding China's buying plans in October-November adds complexity to market dynamics. Additionally, drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals, which could cap upward price movements. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is projected to surpass supply this year, with expected demand exceeding supply by 20 lakh bags. Nevertheless, jeera exports have faced a decline of 7.99% during April to July 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year. In Unjha, a significant spot market, jeera prices closed at 60,342.95 Rupees, marking a slight decline of -0.08%. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with a 0.56% drop in open interest to 4,782 contracts, accompanied by a substantial increase of 185 Rupees in prices. Jeera is currently supported at 59,860, with potential further testing at 59,340. Resistance is likely to be encountered at 60,850, with a potential breakout leading to prices testing 61,320.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 59340-61320.
* Jeera prices rose due to shrinking supplies in the local market.
* Increased festive demand and limited availability of quality crops in the market is prompting miller to buy
* However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 60342.95 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.