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Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2470 and move higher towards $2520 amid weak dollar and fall in US treasury yields. Expectation of weaker job market would increase the probability of a 50 bps interest rate cut and support the precious metals to trade higher. Weekly jobless claims data is likely to indicate a calmness in the unemployment last week. Moreover, safe haven buying due to the ongoing tension in the Middle East would also provide some support to the bullions. At the same time, a strong call base near 2550 call strike indicates a stiff resistance for the yellow metal.

• MCX Gold Oct has to hold the key support near 71,000 and move back towards 72,200. Only close below 71,000 it would turn weaker.

• Spot silver held the support of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent up move. As long as it holds the $27.80 level it is expected to rebound towards $28.80. MCX Silver December is expected to hold the key support near 82,500 and rebound towards 85,200.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid demand concerns form the top metal consumer China. Increasing inventory levels in LME to a 5-year high mainly in the Asian warehouses indicates subdued demand in China. Moreover, fading fears of deficit this year also led liquidation by the fund houses as they reduced their price forecast in the coming year. Meanwhile, improved risk sentiments amid prospects of soft landing in US economy could provide some support to the red metals and limit its downside.

• MCX Copper September is expected to face hurdle near 792 and move lower towards 778. A move below 778, would weaken further towards 772.

• MCX Aluminum is expected to face the hurdle near 223 and weaken towards 218. Declining cash to 3-month premium and increasing inventory levels is likely to weigh on the metal prices.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to remain under pressure amid demand fears and uncertainty over OPEC+ production. Further, China’s factory activity contracted for the 6 th month in a row, leading to demand concerns. Furthermore, improved prospects of supply resumption from Libya would hurt oil prices. Meanwhile, a sharp decline in API inventory levels by 7.43 million barrels last week could provide some support to prices. On the upside $71.50 would act as major resistance for price and weaken it towards $68.50. A move below $68.50 would open the downside towards $67.

• MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to trade lower towards 5780, as long as it trades under 6020. Formation of bearish engulfing pattern and breakdown of multiple support indicates weakness in the trend.

• MCX Natural gas September is likely to weaken towards 176 amid forecast of less demand and ample stockpiles.

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