Aluminum is expected to move lower towards 240, as long as it trades under 243 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is to expected to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and diminishing prospects of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Better than expected US economic numbers has raised the probability of steady rates in the first quarter of 2025. Further, sticky inflation numbers would also strengthen the chance of a pause by the Fed. For the day focus will remain on key US Core PCE data which could bring further volatility in prices. Moreover, traders will also keep an eye on US Govt. shutdown which might provide some support to prices
* Spot gold is likely to face the hurdle near $2620 and move towards $2580. Formation of a bearish engulfing pattern and breakdown of 50 and 20 DEMA indicates correction in price. Below $2580 it would open the downside for $2550. MCX Gold February is expected to move lower towards 75,200 as long as it trades under 76,000.
* MCX Silver March is expected to move in the range of 86,200 and 88,500. Only a move below 86,200 it would turn weak and test level of 84,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and demand uncertainty. Further, lack of details from China regarding its stimulus measure would suppress prices. Today the PBOC left its key price lending rates unchanged, signaling no loose monetary policy. Additionally, hawkish Fed expectations amid sticky inflation numbers in US would limit the upside in metal prices.
* MCX Copper December is expected to face the hurdle near 805 and move lower towards 790. Breakdown of the rising channel and move below the multiple support zone of 805 indicates weakness in price.
* Aluminum is expected to move lower towards 240, as long as it trades under 243. MCX Zinc is expected to dip towards 276, as long as it trades under the 5 day EMA at 283.00
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to face the hurdle near $70 and move lower towards $68 amid strong dollar and demand uncertainty from China. Fed’s cautious approach towards interest rate cut in the coming year amid sticky inflation numbers would restrict the upside in oil prices. Further, a potential US Govt. shutdown would also disrupt travel and economic activity which could lower fuel demand.
* On the data front, closer of OI in ATM and OTM put strike indicates prices to move lower. Further, addition of OI in ATM and OTM put strikes suggest key resistance near $70. MCX Crude oil January is likely to dip towards 5850 mark, as long as it trades under 6040. Only close below 5850 it would turn weaker and open the doors towards 5780.
* MCX Natural gas December future is expected to hold its gains and move towards 315, as long as it holds above 290. Forecast of colder weather in US and drawdown in inventory levels would provide support to price.
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