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Gold

prices declined by 1.04% to settle at 159,241, pressured by a stronger US dollar and a sharp rise in crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors awaited US President Donald Trump's decision regarding a proposed extension of the ceasefire arrangement with Iran. Iran suspended mediator-led negotiations with the United States, citing Israeli military actions in Lebanon and alleged ceasefire violations. Rising tensions have increased concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, supporting safe-haven demand but also strengthening inflation expectations, which weighed on gold prices. Despite the recent correction, the long-term outlook for gold remains supported by robust central bank purchases. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of central bank buying to around 50 tonnes per month and expects purchases to average nearly 60 tonnes monthly through 2026, driven by reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 but continues to project prices moving toward $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investment demand strengthens in the second half of the year. Physical demand remained mixed across major markets. Indian gold demand stayed subdued as elevated prices and import duties discouraged purchases, leading dealers to offer discounts of up to $106 per ounce. In contrast, investment demand in India surged 52% year-on-year to 82 tonnes during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Globally, first-quarter gold demand increased 2% to 1,230.9 tonnes, supported by strong investment flows and steady central bank buying. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.81% to 8,215 contracts, indicating the addition of new short positions. Gold has immediate support at 158,325, with a break below this level likely to test 157,405. On the upside, resistance is placed at 160,180, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 161,115.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157405-161115.

*  Gold inched lower, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising oil prices.

*  Iranian state media said Tehran has suspended mediator-led negotiations and document exchanges with the United States.

*  Gold speculators raised net long positions by 2,544 contracts to 96,931 in the week to May 26. – CFTC

Silver

prices declined by 0.31% to settle at 266,163 amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment in the United States. Market sentiment remained cautious after reports that Iran suspended communications with Washington following military developments in Lebanon and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. While both nations exchanged proposals aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the strategic waterway, uncertainty over a final agreement continued to support volatility across commodity markets. President Donald Trump reiterated that any agreement must include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, surrender of enriched uranium, and a complete end to Iran’s nuclear program. Silver also faced pressure from stronger inflation expectations after the latest US PCE inflation data reinforced the possibility that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Several Fed officials highlighted persistent inflation risks, with policymakers indicating that additional tightening may be required if price pressures remain elevated. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals. Fundamentally, silver continues to receive support from strong physical demand in China. March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the historical March average, driven by retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of policy changes. Meanwhile, silver inventories in London vaults declined slightly to 27,454 tonnes at the end of April. In India, the government imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products to curb rising imports and ease pressure on the rupee. The move is expected to tighten domestic supplies while potentially reducing overall import demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 2.17% to 10,339 contracts while prices declined. Silver has immediate support at 262,615, with a break below this level likely to test 259,065. On the upside, resistance is seen at 269,200, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 272,235.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 259065-272235.

* Silver dropped as renewed setbacks in US-Iran negotiations added to geopolitical uncertainty and pushed oil prices higher.

* Fed’s Bowman said the Middle East war's impact on the economy, while still being measured.

* Fed’s Paulson said "mildly restrictive" monetary policy is "well positioned" for an uncertain outlook where inflation pressures remain too high.

Crude oil

prices surged by 5.49% to settle at 8,736, marking a strong recovery driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment turned sharply bullish after reports that Iran suspended communications and message exchanges with the United States in response to Israel’s expanding military operations in Lebanon. The development intensified concerns over potential supply disruptions from the region, prompting aggressive buying across energy markets. On the supply side, U.S. crude oil production remained largely stable at 13.7 million barrels per day in March, according to the Energy Information Administration. Production in Texas declined to a four-month low of 5.78 million barrels per day, while output in New Mexico remained steady. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan restored production losses at the Tengiz oilfield, bringing national output back to approximately 290,000 metric tons per day. Despite the recovery in Kazakh supplies, geopolitical risks continued to dominate market direction. Inventory data provided additional support to prices. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 3.327 million barrels, while inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub posted their largest decline since August 2023. Gasoline and distillate inventories also recorded significant drawdowns, reflecting healthy fuel demand and stronger refinery activity. However, money managers reduced their net long crude positions, highlighting some caution regarding the sustainability of the rally. Looking ahead, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million previously, citing weaker consumption expectations amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Goldman Sachs also warned that weak demand from China and Europe remains a downside risk to oil prices, although any disruption to Middle East supplies could continue to support the market. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 23.97% to 9,423 contracts while prices advanced sharply. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,478, with further support at 8,220. On the upside, resistance is seen at 9,010, and a breakout above this level could lead prices toward 9,284.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8220-9284.

* Crude oil rose after reports that Iran would suspend exchanges of messages with the US.

* U.S. crude production was largely steady in March at 13.7 million barrels per day – EIA

* Money managers cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 19,186 contracts to 91,163 during the period - CFTC

Natural gas

prices declined by 4.21% to settle at 302.7, as traders booked profits following recent gains driven by expectations of warmer weather and increased cooling demand. Despite supportive weather forecasts, the market faced selling pressure after investors reassessed supply-demand fundamentals and locked in gains from the recent rally. Weather remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. Meteorologists continue to forecast mostly above-normal temperatures through mid-June, which is expected to increase air-conditioning usage and support natural gas consumption by power generators. Gas-fired power plants account for approximately 40% of total U.S. electricity generation, making temperature trends a critical demand driver during the summer season. However, projections from LSEG indicate that total U.S. gas demand, including exports, may ease slightly over the next week before recovering in the following two weeks. On the supply side, Russia's natural gas production rose 6% year-on-year to 214 billion cubic meters during January-April, reflecting stable output growth. In the United States, average gas production in the Lower 48 states edged lower to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day in May from 109.8 bcfd in April, although production remains near record levels. Storage data provided some support, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration reporting an injection of 92 billion cubic feet into storage, slightly below market expectations and lower than both last year's build and the five-year average for the period. Looking ahead, the EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to reach new record highs in 2026 and 2027, supported by strong growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions. While production is projected to increase, domestic demand is expected to soften slightly in 2026 before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 2.92% to 18,948 contracts while prices moved lower. Natural gas has immediate support at 295.2, with further downside potential toward 287.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 317.0, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 331.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 287.7-331.3.

* Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices gained on forecasts for demand over the next two weeks.

* Russia's production of natural gas in January-April rose by 6% year-on-year to 214 billion cubic metres.

* Gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 109.4 billion cubic feet per day in May, slightly below April’s 109.8 bcfd.

Copper prices

rose by 1.26% to settle at 1,365.8, supported by concerns over tightening global supply conditions and upgraded price forecasts from major investment banks. Market sentiment improved after Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per metric ton, citing weaker mine supply growth and stronger demand outside the United States. However, gains were partially limited by uncertainty surrounding Iran peace negotiations and signs of slower manufacturing growth in China. Supply-side concerns continued to underpin prices. Production disruptions in Chile, including shortages of sulfur and sulfuric acid, forced refiners to reduce operating rates, while output from key mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to remain below previous forecasts through 2027. Chilean copper production declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026, further tightening supply expectations. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 3.8% from the previous week, indicating healthy demand and lower available stocks. China remained a key source of support for the market. The country reported a 3.2% annual increase in unwrought copper imports during April, reaching a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons. Strong investment in power infrastructure, with grid spending rising 37% year-on-year during the first quarter, continued to drive copper consumption. Additionally, China's central bank encouraged banks to expand lending, supporting expectations for stronger industrial activity and metal demand. The International Copper Study Group reported that the refined copper market recorded a surplus of 30,000 metric tons in March, significantly lower than February's 270,000-ton surplus. Although the organization expects global surpluses in 2026 and 2027, mine supply growth remains constrained by operational challenges and limited concentrate availability. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest as open interest increased by 0.85% to 17,479 contracts while prices moved higher. Copper has immediate support at 1,355.7, with further support at 1,345.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,372.3, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,378.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1345.6-1378.8.

* Copper ticked higher by concerns over tightening supply and Goldman Sachs’ higher price forecast.

* Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for end of 2026 to $13,735 ton from $12,465 amid global supply tightens

* Citi raised its near-term copper price forecast to $14,500 per metric ton, from a previous forecast of $13,000.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.73% to settle at 367.7, supported by growing concerns over tightening global supply following disruptions at major smelting and refining facilities. Market sentiment improved after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, due to fire-related damage. The incident followed an explosion at Glencore-owned Kazzinc facilities in Kazakhstan, which forced zinc and lead plants to operate at reduced capacity, further increasing concerns about refined metal availability. Supply-side challenges have emerged at a time when the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had already projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons for the current year. Additionally, London Metal Exchange zinc inventories remain relatively low at 111,250 tons, representing less than three days of global consumption, highlighting the market's vulnerability to unexpected disruptions. Low inventories, mine closures, and project delays continue to provide underlying support to zinc prices. However, upside momentum remained somewhat limited by expectations of improving supply conditions later in the year. Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter, while Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% in the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Furthermore, Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories rose 0.7% from the previous week, indicating a modest improvement in available supplies within China. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February. Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus in 2026, although slower mine supply growth beyond 2026 could shift markets outside China into deficit conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest as open interest increased by 5.9% to 2,583 contracts while prices advanced. Zinc has immediate support at 365.5, with further support at 363.3. Resistance is seen at 369.1, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 370.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 363.3-370.5.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* ILZSG had expected there to be a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market this year.

* Zinc stocks on the LME are equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices advanced by 1.61% to settle at 392.15, supported by escalating supply concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment strengthened after military exchanges between the United States and Iran heightened fears of supply disruptions from the Gulf region, a key aluminium-producing area. Tight near-term availability was reflected in the premium for the cash aluminium contract over the three-month forward contract, which surged to its highest level in nearly two decades, indicating strong demand for immediate deliveries. Additional support came from encouraging economic data from China, where industrial profits in April recorded their strongest growth since November 2023. Strong industrial activity has reinforced expectations for steady aluminium demand from the world's largest consumer. China's aluminium sector also remained robust, with production rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.87 million metric tons in April, while output for the first four months of the year increased 3.5%. Supply-side factors continued to support prices. Available aluminium inventories on the London Metal Exchange declined to a one-year low of 254,625 tons, reflecting tightening global supplies. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell by 10.8% from the previous month, while production in the Gulf region dropped sharply by 35% year-on-year in April due to the impact of the ongoing Iran conflict on regional smelters. Concerns also emerged from Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, which is considering export quotas that could further tighten raw material supplies. Trade data highlighted strong international demand. China's imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while April exports surged 15%, reaching the highest monthly level in at least a year. Rising overseas prices and supply disruptions have supported export growth from China. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest as open interest increased by 9.49% to 4,363 contracts while prices moved higher. Aluminium has immediate support at 387.9, with further support at 383.5. Resistance is seen at 394.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 397.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 383.5-397.1.

* Aluminium prices soared as Middle East supply risks escalated after the U.S. and Iran traded military strikes.

* The premium for the cash aluminium contract over a three-month forward surged to 19-year highs above $100 a ton.

* Prices were supported by data showing China’s industrial profits in April grew at the fastest pace since November 2023.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.33% to settle at 16,134 amid increased arrivals in major producing regions and continued stock liquidation by farmers. The market remained under pressure as growers accelerated sales to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, resulting in a temporary supply glut across several local mandis. Increased arrivals of late-harvested turmeric with relatively higher moisture content also led to aggressive discounting of average-quality produce, weighing on overall market sentiment. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt export logistics, prompting some international buyers to delay fresh procurement decisions. Despite the recent weakness, downside pressure remained limited due to underlying supply concerns. Arrivals in key turmeric-producing mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana have stayed below normal seasonal levels, creating localized supply tightness. Quality issues, including rhizome rot and excess moisture in some cultivation areas, have reduced the availability of premium export-grade turmeric. In major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists have been holding back quality stocks in anticipation of higher prices. Premium varieties such as Salem Fali continue to command strong premiums, with prices reaching as high as 20,000 rupees per quintal in select markets. Fundamentally, the market remains supported by lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season. Additional support has emerged from growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and steady procurement activity from Bangladesh. The downward revision of India's turmeric production estimate to 1.140 million tons has further strengthened long-term sentiment, while concerns regarding a potentially below-normal monsoon are beginning to introduce a weather-related risk premium into future price expectations. Export performance remained mixed, with March shipments declining 16.8% year-on-year but improving 10.14% from February levels. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest eased by 0.05% to 20,515 contracts while prices moved lower. Turmeric has immediate support at 15,992, followed by 15,852, while resistance is seen at 16,280 and 16,428.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15852-16428.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut" in local mandis.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15778.35 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.76% to settle at 19,050 as increased arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions weighed on market sentiment. Fresh arrivals from key Rajasthan markets accelerated following favorable harvesting weather, easing earlier concerns regarding supply tightness. Farmers have been actively selling stocks to generate cash for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, resulting in steady selling pressure across physical markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply surplus and limiting price recovery. Despite the recent decline, downside pressure remained restricted due to concerns over crop quality and lower overall production. Unseasonal thunderstorms, hailstorms, and rainfall in Rajasthan affected crops during the harvesting stage, raising concerns about reduced availability of premium-grade jeera. Delays in drying and processing activities due to adverse weather also created temporary disruptions in supply. Market participants noted that the availability of high-quality Sortex-grade carryover stocks is lower than last year, helping maintain premium valuations for superior quality produce. Fundamentally, production estimates continue to support the medium-term outlook. Industry estimates suggest total domestic jeera production may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48-50 lakh bags. Additionally, lower production estimates from China due to unfavorable weather conditions are expected to tighten global supplies and support export competitiveness in the coming months. Export performance remained mixed during March 2026. Jeera exports declined 15.54% year-on-year to 14,642.73 tonnes, reflecting softer global demand and increased competition from other origins. However, exports improved 17.64% on a monthly basis, indicating a gradual recovery in international buying interest. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 6.08% to 9,402 contracts while prices moved lower. Jeera has immediate support at 18,890, with further downside support at 18,710. On the upside, resistance is seen at 19,270, and a move above this level could lead prices toward 19,470.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18710-19470.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19599.15 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views