Silver trading range for the day is 256370-277650 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices witnessed a sharp rally, settling higher by 2.31% at ?142,032, as the yellow metal surged to fresh all-time highs above the $4,600 per ounce mark. The strong upside was driven by heightened geopolitical and political uncertainty, particularly concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve following developments around a criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Rising tensions around Iran and broader global instability further strengthened safe-haven demand. Expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance also provided support, with Fed funds futures factoring in additional rate cuts this year. Underlying fundamentals remain supportive, with strong central-bank buying continuing to underpin prices. Gold holdings in London vaults rose to 9,106 tonnes at the end of December, up 2.24% month-on-month, while silver inventories also increased. Major global banks remain bullish, with forecasts pointing toward $5,000 per ounce gold prices in 2026 amid rising geopolitical risks, fiscal stress, and elevated volatility. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with high prices limiting buying in India, while premiums in China rose sharply on renewed retail interest. The Chinese central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months, reinforcing structural demand. From a technical perspective, the market is under short covering, as open interest declined by 2.21% while prices jumped ?3,213. Gold has immediate support at ?140,250, below which prices may test ?138,475. On the upside, resistance is seen at ?143,150, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward ?144,275.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 138475-144275.
* Gold hit a record above $4,600 as probe into Fed Chair Powell raised central bank independence fears.
* Support also seen buoyed by rising geopolitical tensions around Iran.
* Fed funds futures price in ~3 bps more cuts this year, hinting at risk of aggressive easing.
Silver
Silver prices surged sharply, settling higher by 6.43% at ?268,970, as the metal hit fresh record highs amid rising concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence and elevated geopolitical risks. Safe-haven demand strengthened following reports of a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and growing political pressure on the central bank, while expectations of further U.S. rate cuts also supported precious metals after December payroll growth undershot forecasts. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly unrest in Iran and the risk of broader conflict, further added to silver’s appeal. Fundamentals remain supportive, with investment demand offsetting softer industrial and jewellery consumption. Silver holdings in London vaults rose to 27,818 tonnes at the end of December, up 2.3% month-on-month, reflecting increased institutional positioning. HSBC sharply raised its silver price outlook, citing a weaker U.S. dollar, mild supply-demand deficits and strong safe-haven flows, though it cautioned that current price levels are volatile. Tightness in global inventories has added to market nervousness, with Chinese stockpiles falling to their lowest level in a decade after large exports to London, while liquidity conditions outside China remain strained. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing aggressive short covering, as open interest declined by 14.53% while prices jumped ?16,245. Silver has immediate support at ?262,670, with further downside seen near ?256,370. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?273,310, and a decisive move above this level could open the path toward ?277,650.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 256370-277650.
* Silver hit fresh record highs on Fed independence concerns and elevated geopolitical risks.
* Geopolitical tensions remained high as intensifying protests in Iran raised the risk of wider conflict.
* Markets also weighed the outlook for further US rate cuts after Friday’s jobs report showed December employment growth fell short of forecasts.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices edged lower, settling down 0.32% at ?5,335, as expectations of a resumption in Venezuelan oil exports outweighed geopolitical risk premiums. Markets focused on indications that Venezuela could soon release up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude, adding to near-term supply. This came despite escalating protests in Iran, where unrest has raised concerns about potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran exports close to 2 million barrels per day and remains OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, making the situation a key upside risk for prices. Additional uncertainty stems from possible supply disruptions from Russia amid continued attacks on energy infrastructure and the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions. On the data front, U.S. crude inventories fell sharply by 1.93 million barrels in the latest week, well above expectations. However, the broader supply picture remains comfortable, with year-end commercial crude stocks at 423 million barrels, above historical averages. Oversupply pressures were more evident in refined products, as gasoline inventories surged 5.85 million barrels and distillates rose nearly 5 million barrels. The IEA slightly narrowed its projected global surplus for 2026, while OPEC+ output edged higher in November, reinforcing supply-side pressure. From a technical perspective, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.24% as prices slipped. Crude oil has support at ?5,286, below which prices could test ?5,237. Resistance is seen at ?5,374, and a move above this level may open the way toward ?5,413.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5237-5413.
* Crude oil fell as the potential resumption of Venezuelan oil exports outweighed concerns over supply disruptions.
* Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply from Russia, amid Ukraine's attacks targeting its energy facilities.
* Goldman Sachs maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices moved sharply higher, settling up 3.5% at ?304.5, supported by colder weather forecasts and a moderation in U.S. output levels. Average gas production in the Lower 48 states slipped to 109.1 bcfd so far in January from a record 109.7 bcfd in December, while daily output fell toward a three-week low near 108.0 bcfd due to declines in Louisiana and Texas. This tightening on the supply side helped offset expectations of generally warmer-than-normal weather persisting through January 21, which is likely to cap heating demand in the near term. According to LSEG, average gas demand, including exports, is projected to rise modestly from 130.8 bcfd this week to 132.3 bcfd next week, although these estimates were revised lower from earlier forecasts. Storage data added further support, with U.S. energy firms withdrawing a larger-than-expected 119 bcf from storage, reducing inventories to 3.261 tcf. Stocks are now below last year’s levels, though still marginally above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. gas production and demand to reach record highs in 2025, underpinning a firmer medium-term outlook, while Henry Hub prices are projected to average $3.96/mmBtu in 2026. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 3.71% alongside a ?10.3 price gain. Natural gas has support at ?293.3, with further downside seen near ?282. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?310.9, and a sustained break above this level could push prices toward ?317.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282-317.2.
* Natural gas rose as new weather forecasts showed colder conditions developing across much of the country.
* U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to an average of $3.96 per mmBtu in 2026.
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 1 to 124.
Copper
Copper prices posted a strong rebound, settling higher by 2.65% at ?1,315.2, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and improving sentiment on demand prospects after China signaled fresh measures to boost domestic consumption. China’s cabinet discussed a package of fiscal and financial policies aimed at supporting household spending and investment, helping lift expectations of stronger metal demand in 2026. Prices were further underpinned by supply-side constraints, as production at Chilean state-run miner Codelco fell 3% year-on-year in November, while output at BHP’s Escondida mine declined 12.8%, tightening near-term availability. The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract widened to $55, a five-week high, reflecting nearby tightness. Additional support came from expectations around consolidation in the mining sector, with market attention on potential merger talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore. However, gains were capped by rising inventories in China, where Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks jumped over 24%, and smelters continued to export surplus material amid resistance to high import premiums. On the macro side, Goldman Sachs raised its copper price outlook for the first half of 2026, citing scarcity premiums outside the US, though it expects elevated prices to be difficult to sustain. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.93% alongside a ?33.9 price increase. Copper has immediate support at ?1,295.7, with further downside seen near ?1,276. Resistance is placed at ?1,329.9, and a move above this level could open the path toward ?1,344.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1276-1344.4.
* Copper prices gained bolstered by a weaker dollar and rising hopes of better demand.
* Copper output from Chile's Codelco falls 3% in November
* Two stimulus packages introduced by top metals consumer China at the end of 2025 are also supporting wider sentiment.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged higher, settling up 1.18% at ?312.7, supported by optimism over steady demand from China along with tightening inventories and ongoing supply-side disruptions. Sentiment was aided by news of scheduled maintenance shutdowns at several Chinese zinc mines, which are expected to reduce concentrate availability in the near term. A southwest China mine, having largely met its annual production target, is set to undergo maintenance that could cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while a central China mine will also see fewer operating days due to routine shutdowns. However, upside in prices remained capped amid lingering concerns over China’s broader economic outlook. Although factory activity in China unexpectedly expanded in December, weakness in property investment and sales continued to weigh on demand expectations. On the supply side, China’s zinc output rose sharply by 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes in November, reinforcing expectations that the market could shift toward surplus in 2026. Globally, the refined zinc market showed a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2025, according to ILZSG, even as the monthly deficit narrowed in October. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 5.56% while prices gained ?3.65. Zinc has support at ?310.1, below which prices could test ?307.5. Resistance is seen at ?314.5, and a move above this level may open the way toward ?316.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.5-316.3.
* Zinc prices rose amid optimism over strong demand from China.
* Prices also gained supported by tightening inventories and ongoing supply disruptions.
* Total LME stocks jumped by over 84,000 tons in November and December
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged marginally lower, settling down 0.05% at ?317.25, as profit booking emerged after the recent rally driven by a tight global supply-demand balance. Market sentiment had been supported by data showing the global primary aluminium market remained in deficit by 108,700 tonnes in October, while the cumulative shortfall in the first ten months of the year stood at 955,500 tonnes, with consumption exceeding production. Prices also found underlying support from optimism around resilient global demand and early signs of economic stabilization in China. Investor confidence was reinforced after China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to accommodative monetary policy in 2026, including potential cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to boost domestic demand. China also reaffirmed its stance on preventing overcapacity in metals, with output expected to remain constrained after nearing the 45-million-ton cap, leading to a sharp 9.2% YoY fall in aluminium exports in November. At the same time, supply risks persisted globally due to high energy costs, equipment failures, and bauxite sourcing challenges, which have disrupted smelters in regions such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, as open interest declined 7.76% alongside a marginal price drop. Aluminium has support at ?314.1, below which prices may test ?310.8. Resistance is seen at ?320.7, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward ?324.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 310.8-324.
* Aluminium fell on profit booking after gains driven by a 108,700-ton global supply deficit in October.
* Support seen as investors reassessed expectations around tightening supply and robust global demand.
* China's central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity ample
Turmeric
Turmeric prices registered a strong gain, settling higher by 1.41% at ?17,862, supported by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have sharply reduced inventories, providing a solid base ahead of new crop arrivals. Yield losses reported in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to excess rains have tightened near-term supply, although upside remains capped by expectations of higher acreage in the current sowing season aided by favourable weather. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall increase in availability. Unseasonal rainfall during August–September impacted nearly 15% of acreage in parts of Marathwada, leading to quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risk. Despite this, higher acreage may lift Maharashtra’s output to 54 lakh bags, while other states could contribute around 40 lakh bags. Export demand remains supportive, particularly from Europe and the US, with exports during April–October 2025 rising marginally year-on-year, while imports declined sharply. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.56% alongside a ?248 price increase. Turmeric has support at ?17,552, below which prices may test ?17,240. Resistance is seen at ?18,088, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward ?18,312.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17240-18312.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, ahead of the new crop supply.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16769.25 Rupees gained by 0.17 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices posted a sharp rally on Wednesday, settling higher by 3.85% at ?22,525, driven by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing across key producing regions. In Gujarat, sowing has reached about 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, making this one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remained very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices. Logistical challenges and adverse weather in India and the Middle East have kept near-term supplies tight, lending support to prices, while some improvement in demand from Gulf countries and China has been reported, though buying remains highly price-sensitive. Despite the strong price move, upside appears limited due to comfortable existing stocks and weak export momentum. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end, implying a large carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing. Exports during April–October 2025 declined over 13% year-on-year, highlighting subdued overseas demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest dropped sharply by 10.48% while prices jumped ?835. Jeera has support at ?22,090, with further downside seen near ?21,650. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?22,880, and a sustained move above this level could test ?23,230.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21650-23230.
* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22413.55 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.
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