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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 1.68% at Rs.158,066, supported primarily by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed focus on the interest-rate outlook ahead of key U.S. economic data scheduled this week. Sentiment was further boosted after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the U.S. labor market as being in a “precarious” position, indicating that additional rate cuts may be warranted. On the geopolitical front, easing tensions helped sentiment, with the U.S. and Iran agreeing to continue talks this week to avoid military escalation. Fundamental support also came from sustained central bank demand. China’s central bank extended its gold buying streak for the 15th consecutive month in January, lifting holdings to 74.19 million fine troy ounces, while the value of reserves surged sharply. Physical market dynamics showed mixed trends: gold premiums in India more than halved from decade highs as volatility curbed buying, while a pullback from record prices supported demand in China ahead of the Lunar New Year. China’s gold ecosystem remains strong, with higher mine output, robust bar and coin demand, and a sharp rise in domestic ETF inflows, despite weaker jewelry consumption. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest fell by 5.53% to 7,790 while prices jumped by Rs.2,615. Gold has immediate support at Rs.156,065; a break below could drag prices toward Rs.154,065. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.159,545, and a sustained move above this level may open the path toward Rs.161,025.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 154065-161025.

* Gold prices rose supported by a weaker dollar, as a slate of U.S. economic reports scheduled.

* Fed’s Daly said she thinks the U.S. labor market is in a "precarious" position, and that further interest-rate cuts may be needed.

* Markets are keeping an eye on US-Iran talks, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions this week to ease tensions

Silver

prices surged sharply, settling up 5.09% at Rs.262,620, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Investor sentiment remained bullish ahead of the delayed U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is now seen as a key trigger for the next move in interest rates. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that one or two additional rate cuts may be required to address softness in the labor market, while markets are currently pricing in at least two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, with the first expected around June. Adding to this, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the likelihood of a rapid balance-sheet reduction by the Fed. On the supply side, the global silver market is facing fresh tightness. Chinese stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, following record exports exceeding 660 tons in October to ease a severe price squeeze. Inventories at Shanghai-linked warehouses and exchange volumes have also fallen sharply, highlighting liquidity concerns. Despite record inflows into London, borrowing costs remain elevated. As of end-January 2026, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,729 tonnes, marginally lower month-on-month.  Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.21% to 6,301 alongside a strong price gain of Rs.12,728. Silver has immediate support at Rs.254,115; a break below could drag prices toward Rs.245,615. Resistance is seen at Rs.268,545, and a decisive move above this level may push prices toward Rs.274,475.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 245615-274475.

*Silver gains as the dollar weakened, while investors awaited a key U.S. labour market report.

*Fed’s Bessent said he would not expect the Federal Reserve to move quickly to shrink its balance sheet.

* Fed’s Daly said she thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labour market.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher, settling up 0.79% at Rs.5,870, as markets continued to assess the appropriate geopolitical and supply-side risk premium. Sentiment was cautiously supported by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck an optimistic tone on negotiations with Iran over curbing uranium enrichment. However, tensions remain elevated after Iran warned it would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if attacked. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its key crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, highlighting ongoing oversupply concerns, although the smaller-than-expected reduction suggested underlying confidence in demand. Fundamentals were further shaped by supportive inventory data and revised outlooks. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.455 million barrels, well above expectations, with sharp draws also seen in Cushing and distillate stocks. The IEA raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast while trimming supply growth estimates, pointing to a slightly narrower surplus. Meanwhile, the EIA expects U.S. crude output to ease in 2026 and 2027 after peaking in 2025, adding to medium-term support. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.91% to 12,057 alongside a Rs.46 price gain. Crude oil has support at Rs.5,737; a break below could test Rs.5,604. Resistance is seen at Rs.5,948, and a move above this level may open the way toward Rs.6,026.

Trading Ideas:

*Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5604-6026.

*Crude oil rose as markets continued to gauge their appropriate risk premium.

*Saudi Arabia cut prices for its main crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, signaling oversupply.

* IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts higher.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices saw a sharp sell-off, settling lower by 10.21% at Rs.287.5, pressured by rising production levels and forecasts for milder weather that are expected to curb heating demand through late February. Weather models continue to point to above-average temperatures across much of the U.S., particularly in central and southern regions, with warmth gradually spreading east. Although the Northeast is likely to remain colder for a few more days, the broader outlook has weighed heavily on sentiment. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 106.9 bcfd so far in February, up from January levels, while drilling activity picked up notably in the Haynesville Shale. Baker Hughes data showed the U.S. gas rig count rose by five to 130, reinforcing expectations of ample supply. At the same time, demand is projected to ease sharply, with LSEG forecasting total consumption, including exports, to fall from 159.5 bcfd this week to 132.6 bcfd over the next two weeks. Despite a record 360 bcf storage withdrawal due to last week’s Arctic blast, inventories remain broadly comfortable near historical norms. Looking ahead, the EIA expects U.S. gas production to hit fresh records in 2026, while domestic consumption is seen edging lower, even as LNG exports continue to rise. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest surging 42.79% to 14,265 alongside a price drop of Rs.32.7. Immediate support lies at Rs.275.2, and a break below could test Rs.262.9. Resistance is placed at Rs.307.4, with further upside capped near Rs.327.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 262.9-327.3.

* Natural gas eased on rising output and forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks.

*Energy firms pulled a record 360 bcf of gas out of storage during the week.

* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 5 to 130.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling up 0.55% at Rs.1,249.65, supported by expectations that China will expand its strategic copper reserves and consider a state-led commercial stockpiling system. This policy signal helped offset concerns around rising visible inventories. Stocks in LME-approved warehouses have climbed to 184,300 tonnes, up 25% since early January, while inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged more than 60% since mid-December, reaching 248,911 tonnes, the highest level since March 2025. Comex inventories have also continued to trend higher, underscoring near-term supply comfort. Looking ahead, longer-term fundamentals remain constructive. Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, raised its 2026 average price forecast to $4.95 per pound, citing expectations of strong demand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks. It also sees prices averaging $5.00 per pound in 2027. Chilean output is projected to rise to 5.61 million tonnes this year, while Peru’s production fell sharply, down 11.2% year-on-year in November, offering some counterbalance to higher supply. Meanwhile, the ICSG reported a widening surplus in the refined copper market, with a 94,000-tonne surplus in November, reflecting output continuing to outpace consumption. Technically, copper is seeing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.27% to 15,868 alongside a Rs.6.8 price gain. The metal has support at Rs.1,239.4, with a break below opening the door toward Rs.1,229. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.1,257.1, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,264.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1229-1264.4.

* Copper rose as China will expand its strategic copper reserves.

* Copper stocks in LME approved warehouses at 184,300, are up 25% since January 9.

* Chile's state copper commission Cochilco predicted that the average price will hit $4.95 per pound this year.

Zinc

Zinc prices ended marginally higher, settling up 0.05% at Rs.325.8, as the market balanced near-term supply disruptions against signs of comfortable availability and patchy demand. Sentiment found some support from production halts linked to the upcoming Chinese New Year. A zinc mine in southwest China suspended operations in early February and is expected to restart in March, while a lead-zinc mine in central China has also begun holiday-related shutdowns. Together, these stoppages are likely to reduce zinc concentrate output by just over 2,000 tonnes of metal content, offering temporary supply-side support. However, upside remained capped by ample refined supply and softer demand signals. China has emerged as a net exporter of refined zinc, with outbound shipments totaling 78,500 tonnes in the fourth quarter, largely destined for regions hosting LME warehouses. Refined zinc output in China hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, as smelters ramped up production to take advantage of higher prices. For full-year 2025, output rose nearly 6% to 7.41 million tonnes. Globally, mine output expanded 6.5% year-on-year, supported by the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Kipushi in the DRC. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 8.42% to 3,142 as prices edged higher by Rs.0.15. Zinc has support at Rs.322.2, with a break below opening the door toward Rs.318.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.328.1, and a move above this level could test Rs.330.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 318.5-330.3.

* Zinc gains as investors saw supply concerns and demand prospects remain supportive for the metal.

* However upside seen limited amid stable supply and weak demand, with inventories expected to gradually accumulate.

* Global mine output jumped by 6.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged slightly higher, settling up 0.19% at Rs.312.8, supported by tightening global supply conditions and improving demand sentiment. Supply concerns have been reinforced by production disruptions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, while investor confidence has improved on early signs of economic stabilization in China. Goldman Sachs also turned more constructive, raising its first-half aluminium price outlook sharply to $3,150 per tonne, citing low global inventories, power constraints for new smelters in Indonesia, and steady global demand growth. However, gains were capped by rising inventory pressure, particularly in China. Social aluminium inventories are expected to peak after the Chinese New Year at the highest level in nearly three years. Refined aluminium production in China remained robust, hitting a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, up 2.9% year-on-year, while full-year 2025 output rose to over 45 million tonnes, despite capacity restrictions. Aluminium product output also reached a record high, highlighting ample downstream supply. Inventories reflected this trend, with SHFE warehouse stocks rising 13.1% week-on-week, while stocks at major Japanese ports edged higher. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 1.95% to 3,978 as prices rose by Rs.0.6. Aluminium has support at Rs.310, with a break below opening the way to Rs.307.2. Resistance is placed at Rs.315.2, and a move above could test Rs.317.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 307.2-317.6.

*Aluminium gains as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.

* However upside seen limited as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.

* Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575, attributing the hike to low global inventories.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices witnessed sharp selling pressure, settling lower by 2.59% at Rs.15,630, as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to rise significantly over the next 10–15 days. Sentiment was further weighed down by an increase in acreage, supported by favourable rainfall during the sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is seen at 90 lakh bags compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the overall supply build-up. Despite the recent decline, downside remains capped as arrivals are still below normal and both domestic and export demand remain healthy. Farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, lending support ahead of peak arrivals. Yield losses of 15–20% have been reported in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to excess rains, waterlogging and disease pressure. Quality concerns persist in low-lying areas, though export-grade supply remains supported, especially for Europe and the US. Exports during Apr–Nov 2025 rose nearly 5% year-on-year, while imports dropped sharply, reflecting strong underlying demand. On the technical front, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.7% alongside a Rs.416 price drop. Support is seen at Rs.15,408; a break below could test Rs.15,184. Resistance is placed at Rs.15,964, and a move above this level may push prices towards Rs.16,296.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15184-16296.

* Turmeric prices declined as arrivals in Erode are expected to peak over the next 10–15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

*However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15968.75 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by 0.82% to settle at Rs.23,520, largely due to profit booking as fresh crop arrivals have started in a few markets. Arrivals are expected to gain momentum from March, which has kept near-term sentiment slightly under pressure. Comfortable supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate old stocks also weighed on prices. However, the downside appears limited as weather-related issues and delayed sowing continue to lend underlying support to the market. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, with jeera acreage down sharply by 14.34% to 4.08 lakh hectares. At Unjha, arrivals remain very low, and premium-quality cumin continues to command higher prices. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains price-sensitive. Logistical challenges and weather disruptions across India and the Middle East are keeping supplies tight, helping to cushion prices. Still, upside remains capped as the retail season has ended and foreign buying activity stays muted, with most export demand being met from existing stocks. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded this season, leaving sizable carry-forward stocks. On the technical front, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.9% alongside a Rs.195 price decline. Support is seen at Rs.23,210, below which prices may test Rs.22,900, while resistance is placed at Rs.23,780, with a potential upside towards Rs.24,040.

Trading Ideas:

*Jeera trading range for the day is 22900-24040.

* Jeera prices dropped due to profit booking as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

*Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23416.9 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent.