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Gold

Gold prices slipped by 0.52% to settle at 1,53,152, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand. Optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, along with comments from Donald Trump suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end, weighed on prices. Softer oil prices have also helped ease inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady in the near term. However, underlying support for gold remains intact. U.S. inflation data showed prices rising at the fastest pace in nearly four years, keeping uncertainty around future rate decisions alive. At the same time, central bank demand continues to be a key pillar, with China extending its gold purchases for the 17th consecutive month. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks remained net buyers in early 2026, highlighting sustained institutional interest. Physical demand trends are mixed. In India, buying interest has picked up slightly ahead of the upcoming festival season, although elevated prices are limiting aggressive purchases. In contrast, China has seen softer retail demand, reflected in narrowing premiums. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.73%. Gold has immediate support at 1,52,390, with further downside toward 1,51,630. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,54,450, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,55,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151265-157175.

* Gold jumped as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, easing global inflation fears

* Support also seen amid expectations that a more lasting US–Iran agreement could reduce inflation risks, limit central bank tightening.

* US President Trump stated that the US naval blockade “will remain in full force” until a comprehensive agreement is reached.

Silver

Silver prices fell sharply by 1.24% to settle at 2,48,628, as improving sentiment around a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict reduced safe-haven demand. Reports suggesting a possible ceasefire extension to allow further negotiations have eased market concerns, weighing on bullion prices. On the macro front, comments from Alberto Musalem indicated that current interest rate levels are likely to remain unchanged for some time, despite ongoing supply-side inflation risks. U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture—manufacturing output unexpectedly declined in March, while jobless claims dropped to 207,000, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. These factors have kept expectations around monetary policy steady, limiting strong directional moves in silver. From a supply perspective, global inventories remain comfortable. Holdings in London vaults rose slightly to 27,487 tonnes at the end of March, reflecting adequate physical availability and capping any sharp upside. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.24%, indicating the build-up of short positions. Silver has immediate support at 2,45,935, and a break below this level could lead to further downside toward 2,43,240. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,53,530, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 2,58,430.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 242545-269045.

* Silver extended gains as investors welcomed news that the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open to commercial shipping.

* However, vessels are required to transit through a “coordinated route,” according to Iran’s maritime authorities, Iran’s foreign minister said.

* US President Trump stated that the US naval blockade “will remain in full force” until a comprehensive agreement is reached.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.88% to settle at 8,856, as uncertainty around U.S.-Iran peace talks reignited concerns over supply disruptions. While discussions are expected to resume soon, the lack of a concrete agreement—along with the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports—has kept markets on edge. Comments from Scott Bessent about tightening sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil have further added to supply-side worries. The broader supply picture remains tight. Sharp declines in output from key Middle East producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, reflect the ongoing impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This has prompted firms like UBS to raise their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data provided additional support, with crude stocks unexpectedly falling alongside significant draws in gasoline and distillates, pointing to steady underlying demand despite softer refinery activity. On the demand side, OPEC has slightly lowered its second-quarter demand outlook, citing temporary weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty, though it expects recovery later in the year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising sharply by 33.2%. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,609, with further downside toward 8,363. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,990, and a move above this level could push prices toward 9,125.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6808-9206.

* Crude oil plunged after Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial traffic.

* The move boosted optimism that one of the most severe global energy supply disruptions in recent history may be easing.

* US may release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for enriched uranium stockpiles, with further talks expected this weekend.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 0.82% to settle at 246.6, supported by a short-term dip in output and slightly stronger demand expectations over the next couple of weeks. While overall production in the U.S. remains near record highs, daily output has eased in recent days, primarily due to declines in Louisiana and Ohio, offering some support to prices. That said, the broader supply picture remains comfortable. Production in the Lower 48 states is averaging around 110.7 bcfd in April, close to peak levels. Storage data also points to ample availability, with inventories rising by 59 bcf last week—well above both last year’s increase and the five-year average. Mild weather conditions, expected to persist through early May, are keeping both heating and cooling demand subdued, limiting any sharp upside in prices. Looking ahead, the Energy Information Administration projects output to climb further in 2026 and beyond, even as domestic consumption is expected to dip slightly before recovering. However, steady growth in LNG exports could help balance the market over time. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 12.25%. Natural gas has immediate support at 243.3, with further downside toward 240. On the upside, resistance is seen at 249.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 252.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 240.7-256.5.

* Natural gas gained on a drop in output over the past few days and near-record gas flows to LNG export plants.

* However, upside seen limited amid forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.6 bcfd so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd.

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.34% to settle at 1,268.7, mainly due to profit booking after recent gains driven by supply concerns. Earlier support came from fears of sulphur shortages—an important input in copper processing—amid disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for a significant share of global sulphur production. Market sentiment has also been influenced by expectations of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal. While the Donald Trump administration remains optimistic, uncertainty still lingers. On the demand side, China continues to show signs of strength, with the Yangshan premium rising sharply, indicating strong import appetite. Additionally, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have declined notably, supporting near-term prices. However, global supply remains comfortable. Stocks at the London Metal Exchange and Comex have surged, while expectations of a larger market surplus in 2026 and weaker Chinese import data are capping upside potential. Production trends remain mixed, with declines in Chile offset by increases elsewhere. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest slightly down by 0.16%. Copper has immediate support at 1,261.7, with further downside toward 1,254.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,280.5, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,292.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1248.1-1294.7.

* Copper rose as signals of restored trade through the Strait of Hormuz improved the outlook of manufacturing activity.

* Physical demand had already been supported by China as firms enter their restocking season.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 9.8% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.59% to settle at 340.25, supported by improving sentiment around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal and signs of tighter near-term supply. Although recent negotiations have yet to produce a breakthrough, ongoing dialogue has helped stabilize market confidence. Strength in China’s manufacturing sector has also lifted demand expectations, providing a positive backdrop for base metals. On the supply side, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 1.7% over the past week, reflecting tighter availability. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions have further supported prices in the short term. However, the broader outlook remains balanced, with the restart of Tara Mine and ramp-up at Kipushi Project expected to keep the global market in a small surplus this year. Data also shows the market shifted into a surplus in January, while production trends remain mixed across regions. Demand is projected to grow steadily by around 2% annually, though concerns over the global economic impact of geopolitical tensions continue to limit strong upside momentum. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest slightly lower by 0.46%. Zinc has immediate support at 338.8, with further downside toward 337.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 342, and a move above this level could push prices toward 343.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 334.4-346.2.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after support seen reports Strait of Hormuz was open commercial vessels

* Pressure seen amid growing worries about the global economic impact of the war in Iran fueled broad losses.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.8% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.82% to settle at 372.85, as markets continued to factor in supply risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns over supply chains and output from key regional producers. Supply-side pressure remains the dominant theme. Producers such as Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain are facing operational challenges, with recovery timelines expected to be prolonged. Reflecting this tightness, Japanese port inventories have declined, while premiums for aluminium shipments have surged to multi-year highs. According to JPMorgan Chase, the market is likely to remain in a significant deficit in 2026, with prices expected to stay elevated as supply disruptions persist. At the same time, global production trends are mixed. While overall output has edged higher, particularly in China, imports have declined, indicating cautious demand amid elevated prices and ongoing uncertainty. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 13.18% as prices move higher. Aluminium has immediate support at 369.3, with further downside toward 365.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 376.8, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 380.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 339.8-384.8.

* Aluminium dropped as signals of resorted vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz improved the outlook form key suppliers.

* Iran declares passage for commercial vessels via Hormuz open for remaining ceasefire period

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.8% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.73% to settle at 15,690, mainly weighed down by expectations of higher acreage following favourable sowing conditions. However, the overall supply outlook remains balanced rather than excessive, as weather disruptions and disease pressure have offset some of the gains from increased planting. Crop conditions have been mixed across key producing states like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Unseasonal rains during the late growth stage have impacted yields, with localized losses reported in several regions. While fresh production is estimated at around 11.41 lakh tonnes, dried output is expected to rise to nearly 90 lakh bags from 82.5 lakh bags last year. At the same time, lower carry-forward stocks and tight arrivals are supporting the market, as farmers continue to hold back produce in anticipation of better prices. Demand fundamentals remain steady. Export trends are mixed, with short-term pressure seen in January shipments, but overall volumes holding firm on a cumulative basis. Imports have declined sharply, reflecting reduced dependence on overseas supply. Strong domestic and export demand, especially for high-quality produce meeting EU standards, continues to provide a price cushion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 4.38%. Turmeric has immediate support at 15,532, with further downside toward 15,376. On the upside, resistance is seen at 15,952, and a move above this level could push prices toward 16,216.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15084-16772.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana have remained lower than normal for this peak season.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* In regions like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies, anticipating higher prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15816.6 Rupees gained by 0.13 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.05% to settle at 21,615, pressured by the arrival of the new crop and comfortable supply conditions in the market. Weak export demand, especially from China, has further added to the downside, leading to a build-up of domestic stocks. Farmers are actively selling their produce to take advantage of prevailing prices, which is keeping near-term pressure intact. On the production front, output is expected to fall by around 5% this year to 5.13 lakh tonnes. Gujarat, a key producing state, is likely to see a sharp drop in production due to lower acreage and weaker yields, with sowing down over 14% year-on-year. In contrast, Rajasthan is expected to offset some of this decline with higher output supported by better yields. Weather risks, including heatwaves and pest attacks like aphids, continue to pose uncertainty for the final crop size. Export demand remains a concern, with shipments declining sharply both on a monthly and cumulative basis, reflecting subdued global interest. Despite tighter global supplies due to disruptions in other producing countries, India’s export momentum remains weak. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 12.76%. Jeera has immediate support at 21,470, with further downside toward 21,330. On the upside, resistance is seen at 21,820, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,030.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21530-22210.

* Jeera prices gained as data shows a significant year-on-year drop in arrivals at Unjha, tightening immediate availability.

* Intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final maturation stage have resulted in shriveled grains, reducing the supply of bold-grade Jeera.

* Outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21566.45 Rupees gained by 0.27 percent.

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