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Gold

Gold settled 2.42% higher at Rs157,996 as a weaker US dollar and easing global bond yields supported bullion, while markets awaited the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for clues on the interest-rate outlook amid persistent inflation risks. Geopolitical uncertainty also supported safe-haven demand, with Trump stating that no talks were underway with Iran and insisting the waterway remained open, contradicting Iran’s claim that it was closed. Markets are pricing a 67% probability of the Fed holding rates steady, while expectations of a rate hike have declined following a series of softer US economic indicators. CFTC data showed COMEX gold net-long positions increased by 9,470 contracts in the week ended August 11, taking total net-long positions to 141,868 contracts, indicating continued investor interest in gold amid geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating real interest rates. Physical demand remained comparatively weak, particularly in India, where gold discounts widened to as much as $62 an ounce, the highest level in more than two months, as elevated prices curbed consumption. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter, while gold demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, supported by stronger central-bank purchases of 289 tonnes, which offset 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. India has also witnessed increased unofficial gold inflows following the rise in import tariffs to 15%, according to the World Gold Council. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 8.71% to 10,451 while prices gained Rs3,734. Gold is finding support at Rs154,855, with a break below this level potentially exposing Rs151,715. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs159,685, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs161,375.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151715-161375.

* Gold rebounded as the U.S. dollar weakened and global bond yields eased from multi-decade highs.

* Bond selloff slows after yields rallied to multi-decade highs

* September rate-hold probability 67%, according to CME FedWatch Tool

Silver

Silver settled 1.88% higher at Rs236,787, supported by expectations that the US Treasury will at least double the size of its buyback operations for long-term notes and bonds, potentially improving liquidity in the government bond market. However, the metal remained vulnerable to pressure from elevated global bond yields and rising oil prices as tensions between the US and Iran intensified, with limited signs of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 30-year US Treasury yield recently reached a 19-year high, while sovereign yields across major economies climbed to multi-decade highs. US economic data also pointed toward softer growth, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falling to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July, while retail sales declined 0.6% month-on-month in July against expectations of a 0.1% increase. Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000, exceeding expectations of 202,000. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores increased sharply by 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, indicating continued demand from the world’s major industrial consumer. CFTC data showed silver net-long positions declined by 755 contracts to 10,312 contracts in the week ended August 11, suggesting relatively selective investment flows within precious metals. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%. Global supply is also projected to decline 2%, reinforcing the medium-term supply tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 7.23% to 10,661 while prices gained Rs4,368. Silver is finding support at Rs230,710, and a break below this level could expose Rs224,635. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs240,080, while a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs243,375.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 224635-243375.

* Silver prices gains after Treasury says it plans to increase buybacks

* However, upside was capped amid rising oil prices as the US and Iran showed little indication of reaching an agreement.

* President Trump said there were no ongoing talks with Tehran, while Iranian forces have intensified attacks on shipping in the Hormuz.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.78% higher at Rs8,151 as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing supply disruptions continued to support prices. Shipping through the strategic waterway slowed as most shipowners avoided the route amid conflicting statements from the United States and Iran, with President Donald Trump saying the strait remained open while Iran maintained that it was shut. Iraq also approved mechanisms to export crude through specialised international and local companies and multiple export outlets, potentially supporting supply availability. US inventory data remained mixed, with crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declining by more than 49 million barrels over the past 18 weeks, although year-to-date stocks remained 1.88 million barrels higher. The SPR declined by another 5.3 million barrels to 293.4 million barrels, near the generally accepted operational minimum range of 250–300 million barrels. Cushing inventories fell by around 1.3–1.44 million barrels, while US crude production edged up to 13.805 million barrels per day, 521,000 bpd above the year-earlier level. EIA data showed crude inventories rising 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels, while gasoline stocks increased 0.7 million barrels to 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories declined 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 216,000 bpd, refinery utilization rose by one percentage point, and net US crude imports declined by 1.75 million bpd. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 bpd, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest increasing 9.24% to 12,420 contracts while prices gained Rs63. Crude oil is finding support at Rs8,030, and a break below this level could expose Rs7,908. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,245, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs8,338.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7908-8338.

* Crude oil rose amid uncertainty over shipping through the Hormuz ‌and ongoing supply disruptions.

* Hormuz traffic slows as uncertainty over waterway persists

* Iraq's cabinet approves new export routes from September 1

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.27% higher at Rs270.80 as forecasts pointed to prolonged and intense heat across the southern and western United States, particularly Texas, boosting air-conditioning demand, electricity consumption and gas-fired power generation. Houston temperatures are expected to average around 100°F between August 20 and 23, while peak electricity demand on the Texas grid could reach a record as wind generation declines, providing near-term support to gas prices. However, the upside remained limited by exceptionally strong domestic production, with Lower 48 output averaging 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in August, above July’s record 110.7 bcfd. Strong production and relatively mild weather earlier this year have kept US inventories above the five-year average since March. Gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities averaged 17.2 bcfd in August, unchanged from July, indicating steady export demand. US energy firms added 36 bcf of natural gas into storage for the week ended August 7, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf but below the 49 bcf injection recorded during the same week last year. Total inventories rose to 3.153 trillion cubic feet, 0.8% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average. The EIA expects both US gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026, with dry gas production forecast at 111.2 bcfd and domestic consumption at 92.0 bcfd. Production is projected to increase further to 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while consumption could reach 94.8 bcfd. LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 27.42% to 27,606 contracts while prices gained Rs6. Natural gas is finding support at Rs265.70, and a break below this level could expose Rs260.70. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs275.30, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs279.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.7-279.9.

* Natural gas climbed as forecasts pointed to prolonged and intense heat across the southern and western parts of country.

* However, the price gains were limited by exceptionally strong domestic production.

* Average output in the Lower 48 states has reached 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in August, surpassing July’s record of 110.7 bcfd.

Copper

Copper settled 0.26% higher at Rs1,372.10 as supply concerns emerged after Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 production guidance for the Caserones mine in Chile following a second severe winter storm, with expected output reduced to 120,000–130,000 tonnes from 130,000–140,000 tonnes previously. Antofagasta also cut its 2026 copper production forecast to 625,000–655,000 tonnes from 650,000–700,000 tonnes due to a shutdown at Los Pelambres following extreme rainfall. However, upside remained limited as rising LME inventories eased immediate supply fears. LME warehouses received another 17,000 tonnes, while 18,650 tonnes of previously cancelled warrants were returned, lifting available stocks almost 75% in one week to 158,750 tonnes. COMEX copper inventories also remained elevated at a record 670,273 tonnes. The LME cash-to-three-month backwardation narrowed to $207 per tonne from above $500 earlier in the week, reducing the urgency for physical supply. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the US to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes, highlighting growing medium-term supply risks. However, the ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May compared with a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the first five months recorded a 221,000-tonne surplus. World refined copper output reached 2.43 million tonnes in May against consumption of 2.41 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and product imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports declined 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper production increased 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes in July. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 5.91% to 8,337 contracts while prices gained Rs3.55. Copper is finding support at Rs1,362.90, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,353.60. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,377.50, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs1,382.80.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1353.6-1382.8.

* Copper gains after Lundin Mining cuts 2026 copper production guidance after severe storms in Chile

* China's refined copper production in July rose 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million metric tons.

* Stocks showed a further 17,000 tons of copper inflows into LME warehouses, as well as 18,650 tons of reverse cancellations.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.42% higher at Rs399.20 amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China, where heavy rainfall and flooding are threatening mining and smelting operations. Production adjustments at a Southwest China mine are expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined output by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global supply concerns were reinforced by lower production from major producers, although nearly 10,000 tonnes of zinc delivered into LME warehouses in Asia limited the upside. Nexa reported second-quarter 2026 zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance at 215,000–235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half, down 21% year-on-year, but retained its 2026 guidance of 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its full-year guidance. China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories increased 2.1% week-on-week, while elevated prices continued to weaken demand and discourage buyers. China’s refined zinc production reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the first five months still recorded a surplus of 163,000 tonnes. China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to appropriately loose monetary policy and stronger fiscal-monetary coordination to support growth and financial stability. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 9.99% to 2,271 contracts while prices gained Rs1.65. Zinc is finding support at Rs395.20, and a break below this level could expose Rs391.10. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs401.60, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs403.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 391.1-403.9.

* Zinc gained amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China.

* Nexa reported total zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year over year, mainly supported by higher ore grades.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.1% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.46% higher at Rs348.65, supported by tightening inventories and supply disruptions, with aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports falling 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at the end of July. Lower imports from the Middle East amid the Iran conflict contributed to the decline, while LME aluminium inventories continued to fall to their lowest level since 1990, highlighting significant supply-chain disruptions. However, upside remained limited as expectations of production restarts in the Middle East improved the supply outlook, with Emirates Global Aluminium and Alba Aluminium accelerating production resumption. EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity and is expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027. China’s aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to 3.9 million tonnes in July, while production outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year due mainly to lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters. Norsk Hydro reduced alumina production at its Alunorte plant in Brazil to 50% of capacity due to lower natural gas availability, with the facility having annual capacity of 6.3 million tonnes. Alcoa also lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production falling by one-third. China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year but down 9.6% month-on-month, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Rising Chinese semi-manufactured exports could partially offset Gulf supply losses, with product exports increasing 15% during the first half of 2026. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 5.89% to 3,469 contracts while prices gained Rs1.60. Aluminium is finding support at Rs345.80, and a break below this level could expose Rs342.90. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs350.30, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs351.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.9-351.9.

* Aluminium gained as Japan's July aluminium stocks down 8.8% m/m, lowest since 2010.

* However upside seen limited amid expectations of production restarts in the Middle East, and suppliers have turned to alternative shipping routes.

* China's aluminium production rose by 3.8 % to 3.9 million metric tons in July from a year earlier.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.60% higher at Rs21,260 amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns that El Niño could affect the crop currently being sown. Deficient rainfall and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions raised concerns over upcoming production, while continued dry conditions during early crop development could further affect yields. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, providing some supply-side comfort. However, the upside remained capped as monsoon activity revived across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, easing earlier concerns over crop stress. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are supporting water availability, while re-sowing has been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall and crop conditions have improved. Recent rainfall across major growing regions is expected to accelerate sowing, while high prices could encourage farmers to expand acreage further. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, indicating tighter availability. EU Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM-compliant lots, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports increased 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports rose 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China’s cumulative imports surged 2,710% to 2,108 tonnes, Oman exports rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes, while strong growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay. Nizamabad spot turmeric ended at Rs20,093.50, gaining 0.45%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.29% to 35,645 contracts while prices gained Rs126. Turmeric is finding support at Rs21,130, and a break below this level could expose Rs21,002. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,360, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs21,462.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21002-21462.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20093.5 Rupees gained by 0.45 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled marginally higher by 0.02% at Rs20,770 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather in North-West India accelerated harvesting, drying and deliveries. NCDEX warehouse stocks continued to build, reducing urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders remained cautious and preferred waiting for lower prices before undertaking bulk purchases. Adequate previous-season stocks and increased competition from cumin supplies from Egypt, China, Turkey and Syria continued to cap the upside. Weak Chinese demand and subdued buying from West Asian countries have significantly affected Indian exports, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria have pressured Indian export premiums. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to decline. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have reduced crop quality and harvestable supplies. Domestic processors and stockists continue with hand-to-mouth buying rather than aggressive forward coverage, keeping demand stable but limiting bulk buying interest. Indian cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, including 42–45 lakh bags from Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags from Rajasthan. China production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000, 10,000–11,000 and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Cumulative exports to Singapore rose 1,040%, Oman 265% and Argentina 333%, but were insufficient to offset the overall decline. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs20,554.50, down 0.09%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.82% to 9,438 contracts while prices gained Rs5. Jeera is finding support at Rs20,710, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,650. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,850, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a move toward Rs20,930.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20650-20930.

* Jeera ended flat amid a sharp decline in Chinese demand and weak buying from West Asian countries.

* Pressure also seen as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Buyers are also trying to source cumin from countries such as Egypt and China, increasing competition.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20554.5 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

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