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Nifty : 24155

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

Equity benchmark extended losses over seventh session in a row mid rise in crude oil prices tracking escalated geopolitical tension. Nifty lost 77 points to settle at 24078. Market breadth remained in favour of declines with A/D ratio of 1:1.8. Sectorally, barring IT all other indices ended in red weighed by FMCG, metal, Oil & Gas.

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the session on a subdued note and gradually inched southward as intraday pullbacks were short lived. daily price action resulted into a bear candle carrying lower highlow, indicating extended correction.

• The index is likely to start the session on a positive note tracking firm global cues amid decline in US 10 Year bond Yield and Dollar index. has extended the lower high-low formation over 12th consecutive session, indicating corrective bias amid lack of clarity on geopolitical front which hauled daily stochastic oscillator at oversold territory (placed at 11). Similar pattern was observed during Sept-25 & Jun-26. In both cases, index staged a 5-6% rally after closing above previous session high in subsequent weeks. Therefore, a decisive close above previous session high would be the prerequisite to confirm the pause in corrective bias and open the door for to head back towards 24600 in coming weeks.

• Index is undergoing slower pace of retracement as with past 12 sessions corrective phase, index has retraced 61.8% of preceding 7 sessions 1150 points rally, indicating healthy consolidation (24600-23600). Hence, any corrective dips should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity in a stock backed by strong earnings wherein strong support is placed at 23600 being placement 61.8% retracement of Jun-Aug rally (23072-24774).

• Mirroring the benchmark move, the Midcap index has been minor correction. Yet sustaining well above its 20 days EMA while trading in the vicinity of All Time High. This outperformance is further validated by strength in the market breadth as currently 55% of stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200 days SMA compared to three weeks back reading of 48% that bodes well for durability of buoyancy in the broader market.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – over the past seven sessions, the index has retraced merely 50% retracement level of preceding seven session ~1150-point upmove, indicating slower pace of retracement.

• Levels – Buy around 28th July gap-area (24050-24202)

Nifty Bank : 57240

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty settled the session on flat note at 57240 down 0.04%.

Technical Outlook :

• Index started the third consecutive session on a negative note, However, buying demand emerged from from 50 days EMA helped index to recoup some intraday losses. As a result, the daily price action formed is Doji like candle, indicating extended consolidation.

• Lack of follow through buying and failure to close above previous session high has resulted into prolongation of consolidation. The index is undergoing healthy consolidation as over past 12 sessions index has merely retraced 50% of preceding seven session rally (56023-58248) yet managed to sustain above its 50 day, 100 day and 200 days EMA. This healthy consolidation would set the stage to resolve higher and challenge the upper band of consolidation placed at 58500 in the coming week. In the process, strong support is placed around 56800 being the placement of four months rising trendline coincided with 100 days EMA

• Another observation is that over last 7 weeks Index has retraced by 38.2% of earlier 3 weeks rally, indicating slower pace of retracement which would help to set stage for next leg of rally.

• The PSU Bank Index also formed doji candle indicating indecisiveness at current levels while consolidating above 20 days EMA, indicating healthy consolidation. Going ahead, follow through strength above last week week (8857) high would open the door for next leg of up move towards 9100 levels

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Prolongation of consolidation in vicinity of 57500, indicating positive bias

• Levels : Buy around Wednesday close.

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