Silver trading range for the day is 222715-228475 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold settled 0.91% higher at Rs150,390, supported by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. US inflation rose less than expected in August, while previous-month price pressures were revised lower, bringing the market-implied probability of an October hike down to 37% from 45%, although expectations for a December increase remained elevated at 89%. Gains were limited by rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that persistently high inflation could become embedded in consumer expectations. HSBC lowered its average 2026 gold forecast to $4,490 per ounce from $4,560 and reduced its 2027 forecast to $4,825, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400, stating that tighter monetary policy may slow gold’s near-term appreciation without changing its longer-term outlook, while continued central-bank diversification remains a key structural driver. Physical demand across major Asian markets improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $14 per ounce, narrowing sharply from $43 previously, ahead of Dussehra and Diwali buying. Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $5-$10, while Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan saw prices ranging from modest discounts to premiums. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at around $1.2 trillion, equivalent to approximately 762,723 bars. Geopolitical uncertainty also remained relevant as Iran said it received a US response to its latest ceasefire proposal. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.52% to 15,955 while prices gained Rs1,354. The market is receiving support near Rs149,570, and a sustained break below this level could open the way toward Rs148,750. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs150,975, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs151,560.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 148750-151560.
* Gold rose helped by a softer-than-expected US inflation report that lowered expectations of a Fed rate hike in October.
* US PCE inflation was 3.4 percent year on year in August, with core PCE at 3.0 percent, according to BEA.
* HSBC lowers 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490/oz
Silver
Silver settled 0.97% higher at Rs225,877, supported by softer-than-expected US PCE inflation data that reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August against expectations of 0.4%, while core PCE increased 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.3%. Markets now price around a 38% probability of an October rate hike, down from 51% before the data, while expectations for a December increase remain near 89%. However, Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation. US weekly jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000, below expectations of 200,000, highlighting continued labor-market resilience. Fed officials remained cautious, with Michael Barr supporting further hikes, while Beth Hammack cited high energy prices, AI investment and government debt concerns as factors behind elevated long-term yields. John Williams said another rate hike by year-end remains reasonable. London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 940,423 bars. The global silver market is heading for a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021. The deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million in 2025 despite total demand falling 2%, as industrial and jewellery consumption weakens. Industrial fabrication is expected to decline 3%, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%. Total supply is forecast to fall 2%, supporting the underlying deficit. Silver remains well below its January record of $121.6 per ounce after a 147% surge in 2025, although improving liquidity and weaker Indian demand have eased previous supply tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 4.61% to 16,584 while prices gained Rs2,171. Silver is finding support near Rs224,295, and a break below this level could expose Rs222,715. Resistance is placed at Rs227,175, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs228,475.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 222715-228475.
* Silver rose as softer-than-expected US PCE inflation data reduced expectations for a Fed interest rate hike this month.
* The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 197,000, below expectations of 200,000
* Markets now see roughly a 38% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 51% before the PCE release.
Crude oil settled 2.08% higher at Rs8,916, supported by China’s suspension of oil-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, raising concerns over tighter fuel markets amid ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Investors continued to monitor diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, with Iranian officials preparing for a stronger response if large-scale military attacks resume while maintaining diplomatic initiatives. Saudi Arabia also resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline, while Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day, broadly matching the 2025 average. US crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels for the week ended September 25, compared with expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks rose 553,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 554,000 barrels per day, with utilization falling 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%. Gasoline inventories dropped 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, supporting middle-distillate prices, with US diesel futures rising 4.5% to $5.1175 per gallon. Net US crude imports declined by 468,000 barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 growth outlook. The IEA warned that prolonged disruptions to Middle East flows could keep the global market tight into 2027, with shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity increasing supply risks. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 2.76% to 11,210 while prices gained Rs182. Crude oil is finding support near Rs8,623, and a break below this level could expose Rs8,331. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs9,117, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs9,319.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8331-9319.
* Crude oil rose after China suspended oil products exports, potentially tightening fuel markets.
* Crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels, the EIA said.
* US gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week to 204.4 million barrels, the EIA said.
Natural gas
Natural gas settled 0.96% lower at Rs287.5, pressured by expectations of rising production and mild weather conditions that could keep heating and cooling demand subdued. The US Energy Information Administration reported a 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage build for the week ended September 25, reinforcing concerns over comfortable supply levels. US Lower 48 gas output averaged 113.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, matching the record monthly level reached in August. Strong production and mild weather have kept inventories above the five-year 2021-2025 average since March, with the surplus reaching 7.7% above normal in April. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export plants increased to 17.9 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although they remained below the record 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. The September increase came despite the temporary shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG facility for annual maintenance. Earlier, storage increased by 53 bcf in the week ended September 18, matching analyst expectations but remaining below the 77-bcf build recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 76 bcf. The EIA expects both US natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is projected at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027 from 15.1 bcfd in 2025, supporting export demand despite periodic maintenance disruptions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 16.11% to 54,157 while prices declined Rs2.8. Natural gas is finding support near Rs284.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs281.5. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs291.3, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs295.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 281.5-295.1.
* Natural gas eased on expectations output will rise and the weather will remain mild, keeping heating and cooling demand low.
* EIA says utilities add 64 bcf of gas to storage in week ended September 25
* LSEG forecasts mostly normal weather through Oct. 16, limiting heating and cooling needs
Copper
Copper settled 0.15% lower at Rs1,399.6, pressured by a stronger US dollar and thin trading volumes as markets in top consumer China remained closed for a public holiday. The dollar reached a more than three-month high, while a global bond selloff pushed borrowing costs across the US, France and Japan to multi-decade highs, weighing on risk sentiment and industrial metals. However, improving Chinese manufacturing activity provided some support, with the official PMI rising to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, while the private RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5. Pre-holiday demand continued to draw down copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, with stocks falling 17.8% week-on-week to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024. China’s physical copper premium eased to 1,050 yuan per tonne from 1,375 yuan, while the Yangshan import premium increased slightly to $119 per tonne. Supply concerns persisted as Chilean copper output declined 12.8% year-on-year in August to 369,500 tonnes due to storm-related disruptions and lower ore grades. Supervisors at Chile’s Escondida mine also rejected a collective contract offer, increasing the possibility of strike-related supply disruptions. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June, although the first seven months showed a 32,000-tonne surplus versus 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. July refined output stood at 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.66% to 8,319 while prices fell Rs2.05. Copper is finding support near Rs1,390.4, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,381.2. Resistance is placed near Rs1,408.3, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,417.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1381.2-1417.
* Copper prices fell as a stronger dollar and thin trading volumes weighed on sentiment
* Supervisors at Chile's Escondida copper mine, rejected a collective contract offer, paving the way for a potential strike.
* Copper stocks in SHFE warehouses, declined by 17.8% from last week to 38,744 tons, the lowest since January 2024
Zinc
Zinc settled 1.4% lower at Rs410.6, pressured by expectations of higher refined production from Japan’s Mitsui Kinzoku, which plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year-on-year. Sentiment was also weighed by softer Chinese economic indicators, with industrial profits rising 15.7% in the first eight months of 2026, slowing from 17.6% during January-July as subdued domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. However, Chinese factory activity returned to growth in September, with the official manufacturing PMI improving to 50.1 from 49.8, while the private RatingDog PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.5, reaching a five-month high. Supply concerns provided some underlying support as Nyrstar launched a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, while China’s zinc output declined 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories also declined 1.8% from the previous week. Meanwhile, expectations of increased Chinese exports to the LME and weakness in copper added pressure to prices. The global refined zinc market moved into a modest 13,000-tonne surplus in July, with refined supply at 1.190 million tonnes exceeding demand of 1.177 million tonnes. Global zinc demand increased 0.56%, marking its first growth after three consecutive monthly declines, while refined output rose 0.3%. China remained the largest refined zinc producer with output around 629,000 tonnes. On the mining side, global zinc mine production fell 8% year-on-year to around 995,000 tonnes, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest contraction since May 2024. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.49% to 2,669 while prices declined Rs5.85. Zinc is finding support near Rs406.7, and a break below this level could expose Rs402.8. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs416.1, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs421.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 402.8-421.6.
* Zinc dropped after reports Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku expects H2 zinc output up 32% y/y
* China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.8% from last Friday.
Aluminium
Aluminium settled 1.19% lower at Rs336.6 as easing concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions and expectations of new production capacity in Indonesia weighed on sentiment. Hopes that Gulf supply could improve if regional tensions ease, along with a stronger US dollar and a global bond selloff, added pressure. Macquarie downgraded its 2026 global aluminium deficit forecast to 820,000 tonnes from 940,000 tonnes previously, citing faster-than-expected Middle East smelter restarts, although the near-term market remains relatively tight due to Chinese downstream restocking ahead of the public holiday. The firm expects the market to shift to a 410,000-tonne surplus in 2027, with average aluminium prices forecast at $3,050 per tonne versus $3,325 in 2026. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, while Rio Tinto secured continued operations at its Bell Bay smelter in Tasmania through 2031. Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year in August amid subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories, increasing overseas availability. Japanese aluminium inventories climbed 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Global aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, while GCC output plunged 43% to 299,000 tonnes. In contrast, China’s production increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes, supported by record daily output. Russia and Eastern Europe production rose 7%, while Asia excluding China gained 2%. SHFE aluminium inventories declined by 57,244 tonnes and LME stocks fell by 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter exchange availability. China’s July exports of unwrought aluminium and semis increased 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, while January-July exports rose 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.74% to 4,033 while prices fell Rs4.05. Aluminium is finding support near Rs334.9, and a break below this level could expose Rs333.3. Resistance is placed near Rs339.1, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs341.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 333.3-341.7.
* Aluminium prices fell amid hopes that supply from the Middle East, a major producer, could improve if tensions ease.
* Pressure seen on easing worries about supply from the Gulf region and expectations of new production capacity in Indonesia.
* Analysts at Macquarie downgraded their forecast for this year's deficit in the global aluminium market to 820,000 tons, down 120,000 tons.
Turmeric
Turmeric settled 1.18% higher at Rs21,490, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, concerns over deficient rainfall and fears of El Nino affecting the crop currently being sown, while lower-than-expected acreage expansion in key growing regions raised concerns over upcoming production. Declining carry-forward stocks from previous years have further tightened the supply buffer, with industry estimates placing stocks near 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields and provide further price support. However, revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased immediate crop concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured better water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, creating pressure on commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric from Europe is supporting compliant stocks. Farmer selling during the peak harvest period has increased supply pressure, while stockists remain cautious amid improving weather conditions. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, highlighting strong demand from several destinations. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs20,525.3, gaining 0.51%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.47% to 38,565 while prices gained Rs250. Turmeric is finding support near Rs21,314, and a break below this level could expose Rs21,138. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs21,602, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,714.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21138-21714.
* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop.
* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.
* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20525.3 Rupees gained by 0.51 percent.
Jeera
Jeera settled 1.26% higher at Rs22,825, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds as export-grade, high-purity lots are becoming scarce faster than overall physical supplies. Daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. However, gains remain constrained by aggressive farmer selling ahead of the next season, favorable weather that accelerated harvesting and drying, and steadily rising NCDEX warehouse stocks. Large spice grinders continue to follow hand-to-mouth procurement rather than making bulk purchases, while domestic processors and stockists remain cautious on forward coverage. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities, although improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria may pressure Indian export premiums. Current estimates place India’s cumin production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Outside India, China’s production is estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000-10,000, 10,000-11,000 and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes last year. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but cumulative exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, limiting overall export growth. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs22,269.55, gaining 0.37%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 6.53% to 4,809 while prices gained Rs285. Jeera is finding support near Rs22,570, and a break below this level could expose Rs22,300. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs23,000, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs23,160.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22300-23160.
* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.
* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.
* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22269.55 Rupees gained by 0.37 percent.
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