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The Week That Was

• Gold prices were mixed on Friday, as renewed selling in U.S. Treasury bonds offset a decline in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations following a weak U.S. jobs report. Bullion was also on track for a weekly loss of over 3%, pressured by higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well below the estimated 89,000, marking the slowest monthly growth of the year. Payrolls for July and August were also revised down by a combined 60,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August.

• Silver hovered around $60 an ounce as weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations of around 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth eased to 3.0%, its lowest level since May’21. The softer labour-market data further reduced expectations for an October rate hike, with money markets pricing in nearly a 20% chance of an increase this month, while the probability of a December hike remained above 80%.

• WTI Crude Oil turned higher, reversing earlier losses as improving Middle East crude flows and a decision by G7 countries to release emergency crude stocks eased supply concerns. Despite the rebound, both Brent and WTI remained on track for weekly losses, with Brent down around 1.5% and WTI lower by about 1.2%. On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington was considering deploying another aircraft carrier group and additional troops to the Middle East by the end of November, raising concerns that renewed military action against Tehran could disrupt regional oil flows.

• Copper futures steadied around $6.52 per pound but remained on track for a nearly 3% weekly decline as signs of weakening industrial activity in China, the world's top consumer, weighed on the demand outlook. The metal also faced pressure from a stronger dollar, elevated Treasury yields and higher oil prices, with the risk of escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict adding to inflation concerns. On the supply side, Chilean output could face disruption due to a strike at an Antofagasta-owned site, while Panama's government proposed resuming operations at a major mine.

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold erased most of its weekly losses, closing flat. Prices sustained below the major support of Rs 1,49,500, keeping the overall trend weak. The weekly RSI is trading at 56 and continues to form lower lows, indicating weakening momentum. Going forward, a sustained breakdown below Rs 1,46,000 could drag prices lower towards Rs 1,32,000/1,24,000, while strong resistance is placed at Rs 1,56,000.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Gold below Rs 1,46,000 with a stoploss above Rs 1,55,000 and targets of Rs 1,32,000 and Rs 1,24,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,50,250.

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver broke below the consolidation range support and declined nearly 4% last week. The overall trend remains weak, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the coming days. A sustained breakdown below Rs 2,23,000 could drag prices lower towards Rs 2,00,000/1,80,000, while strong resistance is placed at Rs 2,42,000. The daily RSI is trading at 45, indicating continued weakness in momentum.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Silver below Rs 2,23,000, with a stop-loss above Rs 2,42,000 and targets of Rs 2,00,000 and Rs 1,80,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,25,500.

MCX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil failed to sustain below the consolidation support and reversed higher, while prices continued to trade within the Rs 8,500–9,500 range. Despite high volatility last week, prices managed to close nearly 1% higher. The overall trend remains sideways within the mentioned trading range. However, the weekly RSI is trading at 55 and continues to form higher highs, indicating improving momentum.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 9,500, with a stop-loss below Rs 8,800 and targets of Rs 10,500 and Rs 11,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 9,005.

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper closed more than 1% lower last week, failing to sustain the gains after two consecutive weekly advances. Prices have yet to break the strong resistance at Rs 1,430, while the overall trend remains positive. Going forward, a sustained breakout above Rs 1,430 could push prices higher towards Rs 1,480/1,500. Strong support remains placed at Rs 1,375.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,430 with a stoploss below Rs 1,390 and targets of Rs 1,480 and Rs 1,500.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,407.

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