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Gold

Gold settled down 1.29% at Rs 149,543, pressured by a firm US dollar that remained near an 18-month high, as investors awaited key US inflation data, including consumer and producer price reports, along with retail sales figures. Stronger-than-expected economic data could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar while weighing on bullion. Markets are pricing in less than a 20% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, while the probability of an increase by December stands at 85%, according to CME FedWatch. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that further rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. Physical gold demand in India remained sluggish following the price rebound, although dealers reduced discounts to $6 per ounce from $14 last week ahead of the upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals. In China, gold traded at a $10 premium to the global benchmark after markets reopened following the Golden Week holiday. Singapore premiums ranged between $0.50 and $1.50 per ounce, while Hong Kong premiums stood between zero and $1, and Japanese prices ranged from a $0.50 discount to a $0.50 premium. London's gold vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $1.2 trillion and equivalent to approximately 762,723 gold bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a structural support despite tighter monetary policy. However, three additional US rate hikes could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before prices recover to around $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.82% to 17,065 contracts while prices declined by Rs 1,956. Support is seen at Rs 148,605, followed by Rs 147,665, while resistance is placed at Rs 151,040. A sustained move above this resistance could push prices toward Rs 152,535, whereas a break below support may extend the downside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147665-152535.

* Gold prices eased as a firm US dollar weighed and investors awaited key inflation data.

* Stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher.

* Comex gold speculative net longs fell 9,599 contracts to 114,820

Silver

Silver settled down 1.27% at Rs 222,877, pressured by concerns over tighter US monetary policy and ahead of key consumer and producer price inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that further monetary tightening may be necessary to bring inflation back to target, although CME FedWatch currently shows an 82.8% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged after last month's quarter-point increase, with another hike widely expected by December. Despite recent price weakness, delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering forecast silver prices reaching $97 per ounce over the next 12 months, compared with the current level of $61. Perth Mint silver sales surged 81.3% month-on-month to 605,408 ounces in September, the highest since March, and increased 4.6% year-on-year. London's silver vault holdings rose 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the global silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with the projected shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting underlying supply tightness despite improving market liquidity. Total silver demand is forecast to decline 2% in 2026, while industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth and reduced industrial and jewellery consumption. Conversely, coin and bar demand is projected to increase 18%, supported by recovering investment demand in the United States. Total global silver supply is expected to decrease 2%. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 4.24% to 17,605 contracts while prices declined by Rs 2,878. Immediate support is placed at Rs 221,735, followed by Rs 220,585. Resistance is seen at Rs 224,950, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 227,015, while a break below support may extend the prevailing bearish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 220585-227015.

* Silver prices edged lower as investors looked forward to U.S. consumer and producer price inflation data.

* Fed’s Waller indicated that further interest rate increases are likely in the coming months.

* CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates an 82.8 percent chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled up 1.11% at Rs 8,980, supported by escalating Middle East tensions and concerns over potential disruptions to regional oil supplies. Geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of violating an energy ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump, increasing concerns about renewed escalation and supply risks. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, citing persistent supply risks that could keep near-term market premiums elevated. The investment bank maintained its 2027 average Brent forecast at $80 per barrel and expects West Texas Intermediate prices to average $81 per barrel in December 2026 and $73 per barrel in 2027. However, Brent could average around $125 per barrel in 2027 if average Gulf output remains 5 million barrels per day below February 2026 levels. Meanwhile, OPEC revised its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day projected at the beginning of the year, citing developments in global market conditions. The organization expects deferred demand to materialise in 2027 as pent-up consumption supports the market. According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, defying market expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. However, inventories at the Cushing delivery hub rose by 444,000 barrels. Refinery crude processing increased by 223,000 barrels per day, while utilization rates advanced 0.2 percentage points to 92.7%. Gasoline inventories increased by 400,000 barrels to 204.7 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a decline of 1.7 million barrels. Distillate inventories remained nearly unchanged at 105.1 million barrels, despite expectations for a 2.1 million-barrel draw, while net US crude imports declined by 53,000 barrels per day. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2% to 9,494 contracts while prices increased by Rs 99. Immediate support is placed at Rs 8,732, followed by Rs 8,484, while resistance stands at Rs 9,113. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 9,246, whereas a break below support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8484-9246.

* Crude oil gained as escalating Middle East tensions heightened concerns over regional security.

* OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd, sees pent – up demand in 2027

* Goldman Sachs lifts December 2026 Brent price forecast to $90/bbl

Natural gas

Natural gas settled down 3.73% at 302.2, pressured by profit booking following the recent rally driven by supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Isaias. Producers shut in approximately 1.3 billion cubic feet per day, representing 59% of offshore Gulf output, although the overall impact on US supplies remained limited as offshore production accounted for just 2% of total marketed gas production in 2025. Prices faced additional pressure after the Energy Information Administration reported a weekly storage injection of 85 billion cubic feet for the week ended October 2, 2026, exceeding market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet and marking the largest increase since late June. Total inventories rose to 3.500 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.6% below year-ago levels. Meanwhile, US liquefied natural gas feedgas flows averaged 17.1 billion cubic feet per day in October, down from 18.0 billion cubic feet per day in September, amid a delayed restart at Freeport LNG and planned maintenance at Cove Point. However, strong demand from European and Asian buyers continued to support the longer-term outlook amid risks to Middle Eastern supplies. Speculative net short positions across four major NYMEX and ICE natural gas contracts increased by 30,679 contracts to 111,835, indicating growing bearish positioning. The EIA projected US dry natural gas production would increase from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 112.2 billion in 2026 and 116.1 billion in 2027. Domestic consumption is forecast to rise from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 92.4 billion in 2026 and 93.8 billion in 2027. Meanwhile, average US liquefied natural gas exports are expected to increase from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.6 billion in 2026 and 18.6 billion in 2027. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 17.83% to 34,760 contracts while prices declined by Rs 11.7. Immediate support is placed at 296.3, followed by 290.5, while resistance is seen at 308.9. A sustained move above resistance could push prices toward 315.7, whereas a break below support may extend the bearish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 290.5-315.7.

* Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices rose on supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Isaias.

* EIA data showed inventories rose by 85 Bcf in the week ending October 2, exceeding expectations of 79 Bcf.

* LNG feedgas flows to major US export terminals averaged 17.1 bcfd so far in October, down from 18.0 bcfd in September

Copper

Copper settled down 0.19% at Rs 1,424.45, pressured by a firm US dollar trading near its highest level since April 2025 amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and caution ahead of key US inflation data. However, losses were limited by concerns over mine supply disruptions, improving demand signals from China and tight visible inventories outside the United States. The Yangshan copper premium climbed to $135 per ton, its highest level in four years, following China's return from a week-long holiday, indicating strong demand for imported metal. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories increased by 20,000 tons from the end of September to 58,744 tons, although stocks at the end of September had fallen to their lowest level since January 2024. Copper prices also received support from continued metal transfers into COMEX warehouses amid uncertainty over potential US import tariffs on refined copper. In Chile, state-owned Codelco reported an almost 9% year-on-year increase in August copper production to 101,700 tons. However, output at BHP-controlled Escondida declined 27.6% to 76,100 tons, while Collahuasi production fell 25.1% to 26,500 tons, highlighting supply-side challenges. According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 51,000 tons in July, narrowing from 74,000 tons in June. During the first seven months of the year, the market registered a surplus of 32,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 157,000 tons in the corresponding period a year earlier. July refined copper production stood at 2.41 million tons, against consumption of 2.46 million tons. China's unwrought copper and copper product imports declined to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tons. Copper concentrate imports also decreased to 19.49 million tons from 20.06 million tons. Technically, copper is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.92% to 7,685 contracts while prices fell by Rs 2.7. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,419.8, followed by Rs 1,415.2, while resistance stands at Rs 1,428.5. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,432.6, whereas a break below support may extend the downside.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1415.2-1432.6.

* Copper dropped as dollar index holding near its highest level since April 2025 supported by escalating geopolitical tensions.

* Production at the BHP-controlled Escondida mine tumbled 27.6% to 76,100 tons year-on-year in August

* Comex Copper speculative net longs fell 17,244 contracts to 61,465.

Zinc

Zinc settled down 0.38% at Rs 420.45, pressured by rising London Metal Exchange inventories and a firm US dollar, which remained near an 18-month high amid higher oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy. LME warehouses received 7,250 tons of zinc, lifting total stocks to 132,850 tons, the highest level since mid-2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories also increased 1.8% from the previous release on September 30, adding to concerns over improving availability. However, downside remained limited by persistent supply tightness, as Western refined zinc production declined 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands further heightened concerns over potential production losses. In China, refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September 2026, while August output fell 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tons, marking the weakest annual performance since May 2025. Conversely, Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tons of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, an increase of 32% from a year earlier, potentially adding to future supply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 tons in July, as production increased 0.3% to 1.190 million tons while demand rose 0.56% to 1.177 million tons, marking the first demand expansion after three consecutive months of contraction. However, global zinc mine production declined 8% year-on-year to approximately 995,000 tons in July, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest contraction since May 2024. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 3.66% to 2,066 contracts while prices declined by Rs 1.6. Immediate support is placed at Rs 417.4, followed by Rs 414.2, while resistance stands at Rs 423.5. A sustained move above resistance could push prices toward Rs 426.4, whereas a break below support may extend the bearish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 414.2-426.4.

* Zinc fell after LME warehouses stocks lifted to 132,850 tons, the highest since mid-2025.

* However downside seen limited amid persistent supply tightness as Western smelter capacity shrinks.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.8% from last release on Sep 30.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled down 1.12% at Rs 331.6, pressured by easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf region, expectations of additional production capacity in Indonesia, and a firm US dollar ahead of key inflation data. Improving supply prospects were reflected in Japanese aluminium buyers agreeing to pay a premium of $255 per ton for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter. However, falling inventories continued to provide some support, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declining 7.8% from the September 30 release. Citi projected the global aluminium market would shift from a deficit of 941,000 tons in 2026 to a surplus of 1.8 million tons in 2027 as production outside China accelerates. Macquarie reduced its forecast for the 2026 global deficit to 820,000 tons, 120,000 tons below its June estimate, citing faster-than-expected restarts in the Middle East, and projected average aluminium prices of $3,050 per ton in 2027 against $3,325 in 2026. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, while Chinese output increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tons. Gulf Cooperation Council production plunged 43% year-on-year to 299,000 tons, highlighting persistent regional supply constraints. Meanwhile, North American production declined 1.5%, while Russia and Eastern Europe recorded 7% growth and Asia excluding China increased 2%. Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year in August, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 643,000 tons in July 2026, up 18.6% year-on-year but down 9.6% month-on-month. Cumulative exports during the first seven months increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tons. Aluminium inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 57,244 tons, while London Metal Exchange stocks declined by 15,575 tons, indicating tighter available supplies despite improving production prospects. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.95% to 4,697 contracts while prices fell by Rs 3.75. Immediate support is placed at Rs 330.3, followed by Rs 328.8, while resistance stands at Rs 333.3. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 334.8, whereas a break below support may extend the downside.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 328.8-334.8.

* Aluminium dropped as concerns over supply disruptions from the Gulf region eased.

* Pressure also seen as dollar hovered near an 18-month high ahead of key US inflation data due later this week.

* Accelerating supply growth outside China is likely to push the global aluminium market into a surplus of 1.8 million tons in 2027 – CITI

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply higher by 6% at Rs 24,346, supported by renewed demand, tight spot availability and reduced selling by stockists, who have started withholding stocks amid concerns over future supplies. Prices also gained on fears of El Niño-related dry spells and potential yield losses, despite improving monsoon conditions across several growing regions. Karnataka's drought assessment reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 18,824 lakh, against an estimated cultivation area of 18,000–20,000 hectares in the state. However, India's turmeric production is projected to increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Carryforward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening overall availability and increasing market sensitivity to weather developments. Improved rainfall across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with reservoir replenishment in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns, while completed re-sowing in North Karnataka has improved crop prospects. Nevertheless, continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields. European Union maximum residue limit requirements are also influencing trade, with demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supporting compliant stocks while non-compliant commercial grades face discounts. India's turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tons in July 2026, compared with 15,071 tons a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April–July increased 4% to 65,476 tons, supported by strong demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Switzerland. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices rose 5.36% to Rs 22,524.85. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 11.16% to 14,495 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,378. Immediate support is placed at Rs 23,874, followed by Rs 23,404, while resistance is seen at Rs 24,580. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 24,816, whereas a break below support may trigger profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 23404-24816.

* Turmeric gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, amid tight spot supply.

* Support also seen as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected crop, raising concerns over production.

* Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22524.85 Rupees gained by 5.36 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled sharply higher by 4.4% at Rs 26,310, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, expectations of lower production and anticipation of improved export demand during the lean season. Arrivals across major trading centres, including Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan, have started tapering off, while farmers are holding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period. Although overall physical availability remains relatively stable, export-grade, high-purity seeds are becoming increasingly scarce, supporting prices in nearby futures contracts. Production estimates indicate that India's cumin output could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's production outlook to 70,000–80,000 tons, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tons, 10,000–11,000 tons and 10,000–12,000 tons, respectively. However, upside remained limited by farmer selling, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks, cautious industrial buying and expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria. India's jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tons in July 2026, while cumulative exports during April–July fell 27% to 53,462 tons from 73,026 tons a year earlier. Although cumulative exports to Singapore surged 889% to 2,842 tons and shipments to Libya increased 450% to 341 tons, exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tons, highlighting weakness in a major destination. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices increased 0.11% to Rs 25,578.05. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.42% to 8,715 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,110. Immediate support is placed at Rs 25,580, followed by Rs 24,860, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,790. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 27,280, whereas a break below support may trigger profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24860-27280.

* Jeera gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

* Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

* Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25578.05 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views