September Rains Shape India's Kharif Crops: Sowing Up, Yields Uncertain by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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India's kharif sowing has increased to 1,092.33 lakh hectares, showing a 2.2% rise from last year. While paddy and pulses acreage is up, recent floods and above-normal rainfall may affect crop yields. Oilseeds and maize show promising growth, though cotton and jute-mesta lag. Reservoir levels are high, potentially mitigating drought risks.
Highlights
Kharif Sowing Progress: As of September 6, kharif sowing has reached 1,092.33 lakh hectares, up 2.2% from last year, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Despite increased acreage, crop damage from recent floods could impact yields.
Paddy Sowing Update: Paddy sowing stands at 409.50 lakh hectares as of September 30, a 4% increase from last year, with sowing/transplanting surpassing the normal kharif area. Year-ago data corrections may adjust this figure.
Pulses and Oilseeds Coverage: Pulses acreage increased by 7.5% to 126.20 lakh hectares. Oilseeds coverage is up 1.6% to 192.40 lakh hectares, with soyabean and groundnut showing notable gains.
Maize and Nutri-Cereals: Area under maize and nutri-cereals has risen to 188.72 lakh hectares, with maize and jowar showing increases, while bajra sowing lags behind last year’s level.
Rainfall and Reservoirs: India has received 8% more rainfall than average this monsoon season, totaling 817.9 mm. Major reservoirs are 81% full, with significant water storage increases reported.
Crop Acreage Trends: Sugarcane sowing has marginally increased to 57.68 lakh hectares. However, cotton and jute-mesta acreage remains lower compared to last year, indicating potential production challenges.
Conclusion
September's weather is pivotal for India's kharif crops, with above-normal rainfall presenting both opportunities and challenges. While overall sowing has increased, recent floods could impact yields, particularly in flood-affected regions. Positive trends in paddy, pulses, and oilseeds offer some hope for a robust harvest. However, persistent issues with cotton and jute-mesta acreage highlight areas of concern. The forthcoming production estimates from the Agriculture Ministry will provide clearer insights into the potential impact on overall crop output.
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