Rupee to inch higher on pullback in US yields, possible inflows
The Indian rupee on Friday is set to receive a boost from the dip in U.S. Treasury yields before key inflation data and likely equity inflows.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.28 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.3175 in the previous session.
India's national election exit polls will be out on Saturday.
"I would say interbank is right now slightly short (on dollar/rupee) heading into the exit polls," a currency trader at a bank said.
The dollar and U.S. yields pullback alongside possible inflows may push the dollar/rupee down to 83.20, he said.
The MSCI index adjustment, which will come into effect from May 31, is expected to bring in foreign inflows of $2.5 billion.
Most of the passive flows related to this either come on the same day of the adjustment or the day before, a foreign exchange spot trader at a foreign bank said.
The MSCI inflow was cited for the recovery in the rupee later in Thursday's session.
Asian currencies were slightly higher on the day on the back of a pullback in U.S. yields and the dollar index. Data showed the world's largest economy grew more slowly than previously estimated in the first quarter amid a downward revision in consumer spending, boosting demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Focus now turns to the April U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due later in the day, which will hold cues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.
The U.S. first quarter core PCE number, released alongside the GDP numbers, was revised lower to 3.6% than the initial print of 3.7%.
"That revision is likely to be carried through to today's monthly April core PCE figures and adds some downside risk to the 2.8% on-year consensus forecast," ING Bank said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS:** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.36; onshore one-month forward premium at 7 paise** Dollar index up at 104.82** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $81.6 per barrel** Ten-year U.S. note yield falls to 4.54%** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $517.4mln worth of Indian shares on May. 29
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $172.4mln worth of Indian bonds on May. 29
