Rupee to find brief support on softer oil, outlook remains bearish
The Indian rupee is expected to inch higher at the open on Monday, supported by a pullback in oil prices after the U.S. said it would begin efforts to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, while traders watch for updates on U.S.–Iran negotiations.
The rupee is expected to open in the 94.86 to 94.88 range against the U.S. dollar, per traders. It settled at 94.91 on Thursday when it hit an all-time low of 95.33.
Indian financial markets were shut on Friday.
The Brent crude July futures contract slid to the $105.50 level in the Asia session after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday the U.S. would move to help clear ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump offered scant details, saying the move was a humanitarian effort for neutral nations.
Meanwhile, the lack of progress toward a peace deal is expected to limit oil's downside, analysts said. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued with the countries assessing responses from each other.
Brent crude was last trading near $108 a barrel.
The rupee has remained under persistent pressure in recent sessions, sliding nearly 2% over the past eight trading days.
The sustained weakness reflects a feedback loop from high oil prices, which has eroded sentiment, prompted heavier hedging by importers, and reinforced steady dollar demand from oil refiners.
High oil prices have further undermined the rupee by keeping foreign investors on the sidelines of Indian equities. Portfolio outflows reached nearly $6.5 billion in April, with cumulative withdrawals in 2026 at roughly $20.6 billion, surpassing outflows seen in all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand.
The rupee's outlook remains challenging from both sentiment and flow perspectives, with the ballooning Reserve Bank of India FX forward book an added headwind, a currency trader at a bank said.
