Rupee to encounter fresh strain as Fed`s hawkish tilt compounds oil pain
The Indian rupee is set to encounter fresh headwinds on Thursday after hawkish signals from some Federal Reserve policymakers lifted the dollar and U.S. bond yields, compounding pressure from an unabated rise in oil prices.
The rupee is expected to open in the 94.90-94.95 range, traders said, after settling at 94.8450 on Wednesday.
The currency is on course to log its third consecutive weekly decline, having wiped out nearly all of the gains made earlier in the month following rare central bank measures aimed at curbing excessive speculation.
Overnight, the Fed left policy rates unchanged, but the decision was its most divided since 1992, with three officials dissenting over guidance that still signalled a bias towards easing.
"Pending price pressures are clearly seeping into more cautious views, but the bar to hike rates is still high," said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
"Given that most of the committee feels the current policy stance is within neutral, it can be patient as the conflict - and its ultimate impact on the economy and prices - unfolds."
Oil prices climbed again on Wednesday and extended gains in Asia trade on Thursday, with Brent crude futures last quoted at nearly $121 per barrel, putting them on course for a weekly jump of about 14%.
Surging oil prices and weakness in capital flows are contributing to a persistent bias towards rupee weakness, a trader at a foreign bank said.
Offshore markets remain tilted towards positioning for further depreciation, while onshore moves are being driven largely by real dollar demand after the central bank's curbs on banks' positions dampened speculative activity, the trader said.
Concerns over persistent rupee weakness have also prompted state-run refiners to scale back the use of a special foreign exchange credit line introduced to reduce spot dollar purchases for oil imports.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 95.32; 1-month NDF points at 35 paisa
** Dollar index at 98.91
** Brent crude futures up 1.7% at $120 a barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.42%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $210.7mln worth of Indian shares on April 28
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $10.9mln worth of Indian bonds on April 28
