Market Cues Diverge: Weak Earnings Offset by Strong Capex and Policy Momentum by GEPL Capital Ltd
Stocks in News
• ADANI ENTERPRISES: The company reports a consolidated net loss of Rs. 221 crore in the fourth quarter versus a profit of Rs. 3,845 crore YoY. Revenue rises 20.3% YoY to Rs. 32,439 crore. The company also approves a fundraise of up to Rs. 15,000 crore via equity.
• SIEMENS: The company receives an internal work allocation worth Rs. 1,825 crore from a group entity for manufacturing bogies, traction motors, and gearboxes.
• ACTION CONSTRUCTION: The company will transfer its heavy cranes business to its JV ACE KATO, with completion expected by June 30.
• LEMON TREE HOTEL: The company's arm terminates its agreement with Coronet Hotel Services for the Manesar hotel project.The company opens its third hotel in Nepal with an 80-room property.CHAMBAL
• NTPC: The company declares commercial operations of 100 MW solar PV capacity out of its 176 MW project in Telangana.
• SOLEX ENERGY: The company signs an MoU with the Gujarat government to set up a 5 GW solar cell manufacturing plant and a 10 GW BESS facility, with a total project cost of Rs. 4,000 crore.
• BALRAMPUR CHINI: Sugar season 2025-26 concludes with cane crushing rising to 104.3 lakh MT and net sugar output at 9.68 lakh MT.
• VODAFONE IDEA: The company states that DoT has finalised AGR dues at Rs. 64,046 crore as on December 31, with staggered repayments scheduled from FY32 onward.
• TATA POWER: The company's arm will invest Rs. 6,500 crore to set up a 10 GW photovoltaic ingot/wafer manufacturing facility.
• SPORTKING INDIA: The company delays commencement of its solar-power project in Punjab, with SCOD extended to May 31, 2026 due to technical delays.
Economic News
• MSME apprenticeships set for boost as India drafts roadmap: India is embarking on an innovative strategy to enhance apprenticeship programs tailored for micro, small, and medium enterprises. Focused reforms in policies, regulations, and financial frameworks are on the table, with a group training model being a key contender. The goal is to equip the nation's youth with essential workforce skills by 2047.
Global News
• OPEC+ signals supply support with a notional June output hike, as real supply remains constrained by geopolitical disruptions: OPEC has approved a third consecutive monthly output hike of ~188,000 barrels/day for June, led by seven key members including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, taking Saudi’s quota to ~10.29 mbpd. However, the increase is largely notional, as actual supply additions remain constrained due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions particularly tensions affecting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict keeping Gulf exports tight. The move is more of a signaling strategy to reassure markets on supply continuity and maintain price stability rather than materially boosting production. Despite the UAE’s exit from OPEC+, the alliance continues to function cohesively, with core producers driving decisions. Separately, ADNOC has outlined a $55 billion capex plan for 2026– 2028 to expand upstream and downstream capacity, leveraging its independence from OPEC quotas post-UAE exit to scale production more flexibly
Government Security Market:
* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.60%- 5.40% on Thursday ended at 4.90%.
* The 10 year benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) closed at 7.0148% on Thursday Vs 6.9928% on Wednesday .
Global Debt Market:
U.S. Treasury yields were broadly flat on Thursday as investors digested the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, while oil hit a 4-year high overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note the key benchmark for U.S. government borrowing was traded at 4.410%. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, was over 1 basis point lower at 3.916%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was seen trading flat. The Fed on Wednesday voted to keep the benchmark federal funds rate on hold between 3.50% to 3.75%, which investors had expected heading into the meeting. But the meeting also saw the highest level of dissent since 1992 with three officials voting against “the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.” This phrasing indicates the likelihood that the next move from the U.S. central bank will be to lower interest rates. The level of dissent demonstrates anxiety among some Fed officials on the inflationary outlook. Brent crude hit a 4-year high Thursday following a report that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran, raising worries that armed conflict could resume. Axios reported that U.S. Central Command was set to present Trump plans for further possible military action against Iran, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter. Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signalling the naval blockade will remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached.
10 Year Benchmark Technical View :
The 10 year Benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.99% to 7.02% level on Monday
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