Rupee markets navigate partial RBI rollback, US-Iran risks simme
The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Tuesday, with traders assessing the impact of the central bank’s partial rollback of FX curbs alongside looming U.S.-Iran risks.
The rupee will open in the 93.08-93.14 range versus the U.S. dollar, per traders, having weakened 0.2% to 93.1275 on Monday.
The Reserve Bank of India, after market hours on Monday, partially rolled back restrictions it had imposed on corporates and other users and on certain related-party transactions undertaken by banks.
The RBI withdrew directions barring banks from offering non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident users and dropped curbs that prevented users from rebooking foreign exchange derivative contracts.
The restrictions were introduced about three weeks ago, primarily to prevent corporates from engaging in arbitrage between onshore and offshore markets. That move, coupled with prior measures to cap the onshore position size of banks, helped the rupee recover from a all-time low of 95.21 hit in late March.
On balance, the RBI's rollback is likely to put a bit of pressure on the rupee and push premiums higher at the margin, a treasury official at a foreign bank said.
"After all that has transpired, it is difficult to gauge how banks will respond, particularly whether they will allow corporates to undertake NDF trades," he said.
U.S.-IRAN TALKS
The rupee and other Asian currencies will have to contend with uncertainty over whether a second round of U.S.-Iran talks will take place, with the deadline for the two-week ceasefire set to lapse this week.
Asian equities were mostly higher on Tuesday, tracking U.S. equity futures.
"Markets are currently priced for de-escalation," MUFG Bank said in a note.
"Any escalation, particularly military action around Hormuz, could trigger a renewed spike in oil prices and a broad risk-off move."
