IGI Logo

Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee closed on positive note yesterday amid soft dollar and likely equity inflows. Further, rupee gained strength on rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets coupled with likely dollar sales from state run banks.

* Rupee is likely to depreciate today amid firm dollar and rise in crude oil prices. Dollar and US treasury yields are likely to move north on forecast of improved economic data from US, which may prompt investors to push back rate cut expectations. As per CME FedWatch tool markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of manufacturing and services pmi data from major economies to gauge economic health. USDINR April likely to rise towards 83.50 level as long as it stays above 83.20 level (50-Day EMA).

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped marginally by 0.02% yesterday amid weaker than expected economic data from euro zone and dovish comments from ECB officials. ECB Governing Council member Centeno said central bank could cut interest rates by more than 100 bps this year. For today, EURUSD is likely to face resistance near 1.0680 level (10-Day EMA) and slip towards 1.0620 levels amid firm dollar and divergence in monetary policy. US Fed is expected to delay its first rate cut to September while ECB is likely to begin cutting rates since June meeting. EURINR April is likely to slip towards 88.60 levels as long as it trades below 89.10 levels.

* Pound is expected to slip towards 1.2290 levels as long as its stays below 1.2400 level amid firm dollar. Meanwhile, sharp downside would be cushioned on expectation of improved manufacturing and services pmi data from Britain. GBPINR April is likely to slip further towards 102.50 level as long as it stays below 103.10 levels

https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631