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USD/INR

Technical Outlook

The dollar remained under pressure this past week as the softening job market increased expectations of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Despite the softness in the greenback the USD/INR drifted higher due to importer-led demand and buying by foreign banks; the pair has ended above its opening price for seven straight trading sessions, suggesting that dollar demand remains robust.

Recent price action suggests that the broader consolidation range for the pair could be between 83.20 and 83.70. The overall positioning of the 5-, 13- and 21-day exponential moving averages continue to be aligned for an up move.

There are no notable strikes set to expire either on the week or in the upcoming session.

The indicator regime – stochastics – remains bullish both on the dailies and the weeklies.

Seasonality trends covering the last decade show that for the coming week, the pair has risen 60% of the time; average returns have been flat at 0.01 % with maximum and minimum returns of 1% and -1.73% respectively

Macro Commentary

US inflation data is due this week, which will offer additional cues on the odds of a December rate cut by the Fed.

EUR/INR

Technical Outlook

This past week the EUR/USD moved in a tight, near 70-pip range, majorly driven by the dollar’s softness. The INR cross opened with a gap-up on Friday after a prior-day of weakness, furthering the advance from the mid-April lows.

Technical hurdles for the pair lie near the 90.20- 90.40 area, while supports are placed between 89.40 and 89.60; the configuration of the short-term EMAs remains constructive.

Notable option expirations for the week lie at strikes of 1.0750, 1.0650, 1.0800 and 1.0850.

The oscillator regime on the weekly remains bullish even as the daily setup has now entered overbought territory.

For the coming week, the pair has fallen in 60% of instances over the last decade; average returns have been 0.14% with maximum and minimum returns of 3.2% and -1.7% respectively

Macro Commentary

This week, we have the ECB financial stability review, which is expected to give an insight of the futures monetary policy and economic strength.

GBP/INR

Technical Outlook

The BOE policy last week was a major event that traders were looking out for, with Governor Bailey mentioning that the pace of rate cuts will depend on how inflation evolves. Consequently, the GBP/INR also followed USD/INR and inched higher.

Support for the GBP/INR could come between 104.40-104.20 (this is where the short-term EMAs cluster). Speaking of resistance, an immediate hurdle for the pair is placed in the105.00-105.30 zone.

Significant expirations for GBP/USD options that are coming due next week lie at the 1.2323, 1.2400 and 1.2500 strikes

The pair has risen 60% of the time over the last decade for the upcoming week; mean returns have been 0.07% with maximum and minimum returns of 2.6% and -3.2% respectively

Macro Commentary

In the upcoming week, we have jobs data from the UK, with the forecast expecting a general softening of the labor market

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