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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee ended on a positive note on Friday amid dollar sales from foreign and state-run banks. Further, RBI kept interest rates unchanged for a 7 th consecutive meeting

* Rupee is likely to depreciate today amid form dollar and surge in US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are moving north as better than expected job data from US and hawkish comments from Fed officials, reinforced expectations that US Federal Reserve would be in no rush to cut interest rates in the near term and even pushed back the number of rate cuts from 3 to 2 in 2024. Meanwhile, sharp fall in rupee may be cushioned on rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets and softening of crude oil prices. USDINR April likely to hold the support near 83.24 level (20-Day EMA) and rise towards immediate resistance of 83.36 (10-day EMA), a sustain break above 83.36 pair may rise further towards 83.45 levels.

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped marginally by 0.01% on Friday amid firm dollar and weaker than expected Eurozone economic data. Eurozone retail sales fell 0.5% in February and German factory orders rose 0.2% in February, weaker than expectations of 0.7%. For today, EURUSD is likely to slip towards 1.0790 level as long as it stays below 1.0850 level amid strong dollar and expectation of disappointing economic data from euro zone. EURINR April may slip towards 200-Day EMA of 90.10 level as long as it trades below 90.50 levels.

* Pound is expected to slip further towards 200-day EMA around 1.2560 level as long as its stays below 20-day EMA of 1.2650 level. Pound may show weakness on strong dollar. Further, investors will remain cautious ahead of comments from BOE officials to get cues on rate trajectory. GBPINR April is likely to move south towards 100-Day EMA of 104.90 level as long as it stays below 200-Day EMA around 105.35 levels.

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