IGI Logo

Key highlights from the exit polls of 2024

Loksabha 2024 elections concluded yesterday and Exit polls for the same were announced subsequently. We present our key takeaways and analysis of the same in this note

(1) The exit polls predict Modi 3.0:

NDA is forecasted to win ~370 seats (NDA had won 353 seats in 2019) according to the average of all exit polls. Today’s Chanakya, the only agency that predicted the 2014 seats correctly, has estimated 400 seats for NDA. Meanwhile, the highly respected and eagerly awaited Axis MY India Exit Poll (the agency that accurately predicted 2019 and also has a track record of correctly predicting 64 out of 69 polls to date) has placed the NDA in the higher range with 400 seats (361-401).

More importantly, none of the 12 exit polls that we analyzed are predicting defeat or even a slim majority for Mr. Modi. The lowest number of seats predicted for the NDA is 316 by Dainik Bhaskar, with a range of 281-351. The dispersion of NDA seats predicted by these 12 exit polls ranges from 316 seats on the lower end to 400 seats on the higher end out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha seats.

Within the NDA, the BJP alone is expected to win ~325 seats vs. 303 that it won in 2019. If the actual election results are in line with the exit polls, it will be the first time since the 1960s that an incumbent Prime Minister is returning to power for a third consecutive term with a comfortable majority. The last time this happened was in the 1960s when Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru (India’s first Prime Minister) won the Lok Sabha Elections in 1962 (he had also won in 1952 and 1957). Equally, if the BJP wins ~325 seats as predicted in exit polls, this would be an unprecedented performance. It would have surpassed its previous tally for the second time in a row after winning 282/303 seats in 2014/2019, highlighting the pro-incumbency trend.

(2) Vote Share: 40 vs. 20:

The BJP is expected to inch closer to ~40% vote share on its own (vs. 37.3% in 2019) and the NDA is likely to touch 47% vote share (vs. 45% in 2019). The prevailing narrative after the first two phases of elections, which saw a reduced voter turnout, created nervousness and anxiety in equity markets in late April and early May. However, this does not appear to be making any difference to the eventual outcome, according to the exit polls

(3) Co ngress is not expected to secure triple digits in seats for the third consecutive time:

The opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance is projected to win ~140 seats. Within the opposition grouping, Congress is likely to improve its tally from 52 in 2019 to win ~65 seats. Congress’ tally had slumped to 44 in 2014 (its lowest ever) from 206 in 2009 and then marginally improved to 52 in 2019. Congress is also expected to increase its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019, but it will still be close to half of the BJP’s expected vote share. Interestingly, even in states like Telangana and Karnataka, where the Congress won the state assembly elections in the last 12 months, it is not expected to see any material positive impact of those victories on its performance in the parliamentary polls in the same states.

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number is INH000000412