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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

*Rupee appreciated yesterday amid rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets and sustained foreign fund inflows. Further, softening of crude oil prices supported domestic currency

* Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid expectation of correction in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Yields are extending their fall as report showed US private payrolls increased less than expected in November, another sign that labor market is gradually cooling. Slew of disappointing economic data along with dovish commentary from Fed officials have bolstered expectations that US Fed will end its rate hike cycle and may start cutting rates as soon as March. Additionally, rupee may gain strength on decline in crude oil prices and optimistic domestic market sentiments. USDINR may slip to 83.30 level as long as its stays below 83.50 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped by 0.30% yesterday on the back of firm dollar and risk aversion in the domestic markets. Further, weaker than expected euro zone retail sales and German factory orders added downside pressure on euro. For today, EURUSD is likely to slip further towards 1.0700 levels as long as it stays below 1.080 levels on disappointing economic data from euro zone. Further, single currency may plunge on expectations that ECB will hold rates steady in December meeting and begin cutting rates as soon as March 2024. EURINR may slip towards 89.60 as long as it trades below 90.20 levels

* Pound is likely to move back towards 1.2600 level on expectation of improved economic data from Britain. Further, BOE governor Andrew Bailey said “rates are likely to need to remain at these levels for an extended period to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis.“ GBPINR is likely to move higher towards 105.20 level as long as it stays above 104.70 levels

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