Quote on Gold and Crude Oil by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Below the Quote on Gold and Crude Oil by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Spot gold and silver hit fresh record highs on Monday, reaching $4,630/oz and $86.20/oz respectively, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, amid growing market concerns over central bank independence after federal prosecutors launched a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell revealed that he had faced threats of criminal charges linked to his Senate testimony, while former Fed leaders criticized the investigation as political interference, adding to the market’s unease. Geopolitical tensions in Iran also supported precious metals, while gold-silver ratio's drop to 54 aligns with its 50-60 long-term average, hinting at sustained silver outperformance. Today, gold pulled back slightly below $4,580/oz and Silver fell below $85/oz as traders eye key U.S. economic data, including CPI, retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and remarks from FOMC officials that could influence expectations for future interest rate moves.
WTI crude extended gains for a third straight day on Monday, rising to $59.91/bbl, as geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated amid escalating antigovernment protests in Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer. President Trump warned of a strong response if Iranian authorities crack down on protesters, while Tehran hinted it could act preemptively, fueling concerns about potential supply disruptions. Ongoing Russia–Ukraine tensions and commodity index rebalancing also supported prices. Crude oil prices surged to one month high of $60.1/bbl today after Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran, though details on implementation remain unclear. Expectations that Venezuela may soon resume exports could limit sharp upside in the near term.
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