Quote on Economy Update by Arsh Mogre, Economist, PL Capital
Below the Quote on Economy Update by Arsh Mogre, Economist, PL Capital
“This week marks a critical inflection point with investor sentiment contingent on a confluence of policy clarity, macroeconomic data, and global developments:
Domestic Policy and Macros:
The GST Council meeting (September?3–4) is expected to be a pivotal event, with anticipations of a potential tax rationalizations—especially benefiting consumption-led plays like auto and FMCG sectors.
Macroeconomic Confidence:
The RBI’s August bulletin affirms India’s enduring economic resilience—with easing inflation (July at 1.55%, an eight-year low), strong rural demand, and a steady policy repo rate (5.50%) . However, elevated U.S. tariffs represent a key external vulnerability . GDP data for Q1 (April–June) showed robust 7.8% growth, the fastest in five quarters, which may provide a counterbalancing sentiment buffer.
Global Headwinds & U.S. Labor Focus:
U.S.-India trade tensions remain front and center with the recently enacted 50% U.S. tariffs targeting ~$48 billion in exports, especially textiles, jewelry, and automobiles, that are heightening uncertainty, though policy responses from the Indian government (GST cuts, export incentives, market diversification) are underway. Globally, attention turns to U.S. non-farm payrolls, manufacturing/services PMIs, and Fed policy risks.”
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