IGI Logo

Below the Quote on Advance GDP Estimates for FY26 by Rajeev Sharan, Head – Criteria, Model Development & Research, Brickwork Ratings

The first advance estimates from MoSPI peg FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4%, positioning India to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth largest economy—a significant credit positive milestone. That said, exchange rate pressures during the year could temporarily delay this shift. S&P’s first sovereign rating upgrade in 18 years, to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB ’ in August 2025, reflects sustained fiscal consolidation and improvements in expenditure quality. Strong private consumption, aided by record low inflation through much of FY2026, has created fiscal space for targeted tax relief in Budget 2026. While Fitch and Moody’s continue to hold India at ‘BBB /Baa3’ pending further debt reduction, the path to achieve third largest economy status by 2030 will depend on government capital expenditure catalyzing broader private investment rather than substituting for it.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer