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Below the Perspective on WPI data of September 2025 by Mr. Sanjay Kumar, CEO & MD, Rassense Pvt Ltd

The cooling of the WPI inflation on a month-on-month basis is primarily influenced by the softening of food prices, against the backdrop of a good monsoon, leading to considerable moderation in the WPI food index. This decline in the inflationary trend after the previous two months of uptick is characteristic, as the spike was the ripple effect of the unprecedented volatility due to the US Tariff Threat. It is noteworthy that agricultural products have played a significant role in keeping the food inflation index in check, ultimately maintaining a sustained and resilient control over the headline inflation.

 This underlines the need to further strengthen agricultural supply chains with technological advancements, invest in better storage, cold-storage infrastructure, and real-time market monitoring. Forecasting models tied to weather and yield data should trigger strategic buffer releases or imports pre-emptively. Being a country heavily driven by agriculture as the biggest contributor to the GDP, it is imperative to keep a hawk’s eye on domestic and international triggers that can have a dampening effect on the agriculture sector, and mitigate risk well in advance to keep this momentum upbeat and sustained.

 Overall, going further, a probable rate cut by the RBI along with the GST reforms will further make inroads for moderation of inflation, thus keeping the trend range-bound.

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