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Below the Perspective on WPI data 15th Sept 2025 by Ms. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge

“WPI inflation turned positive in August at 0.5% after contracting for the previous two months, driven by a narrowing of deflation in primary goods and higher inflation in manufactured products. Despite this uptick, WPI inflation remains in a comfortable range. Looking ahead, food inflation is expected to stay moderate, supported by healthy agricultural activity and a favourable base. Good monsoon progress, adequate reservoir levels, and strong kharif sowing bode well for food price stability. However, risks persist from the late withdrawal of the monsoon and heavy rains in certain regions, which could lead to crop damage. Persistently high double-digit inflation in edible oils also warrants close monitoring, given weak sowing trends, import dependence, and elevated global prices. Beyond food, while global commodity prices are broadly expected to remain stable, intermittent spikes cannot be ruled out amid rising geopolitical tensions. Close monitoring of geopolitical developments and global trade dynamics will be critical, as they have direct implications for input costs and inflation trends. Additionally, the recent rationalisation of GST rates is expected to positively influence the overall inflation environment. For FY26, we project WPI inflation to average around 0.3%”.

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