Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Below the Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
* NSO estimates suggest a revival in consumption and moderation in investments in 2H. Private consumption is likely to grow 7.8% YoY in 2HFY25 (vs 6.7%/4% in 1H/FY24), govt consumption is estimated to grow 6.1% in 2H (vs 2%/2.5%) and total invt is seen to increase 5.8% vs 6.5%/9.4%.
* Thus, investment-to-GDP ratio is seen at 32.7% in FY25, the lowest in three years. At the same time, higher net imports in FY25 implies a fall in domestic savings to 30.1% of GDP (vs 31.1% in FY24).
* Notably, NSO estimates suggest nominal GDP growth to rise to 10.5% YoY in 2H (vs 8.9%/9.6% in 1H/FY24), implying 9.7% growth in FY25 (lower by INR2.2t than BEs).
* It also sees real GVA growth at 6.6% YoY in 2H (vs 6.2%/7.2% in 1H/FY24), led by broad based improvement.
* This is in contrast to our forecast of 5.3%/5.8% growth in real GDP/GVA in 2H and 5.8%/6% in FY25.
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