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Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group.   Headline CPI inflation came in at 6.2% YoY last month, the highest in 14 months and higher than market consensus of 5.9% (our forecast of 5.8%). The acceleration was broad-based, with food and core inflation coming in higher than expected. On the other hand, IIP growth was 3.1% YoY in Sep'24, slightly better than market consensus of 2.5% (our forecast was 4%). It i...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd Ltd
2024-11-13 10:51:55 am
Perspective on Monatary Policy Committee Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Quote on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   As broadly expected, the RBI kept interest rates unchanged. What probably was more important was the Governor's emphasis on the headline inflation (with food inflation playing an important role) and the focus on inflation deceleration when growth remains so good. This, to our mind, indicates that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon (unless growth falters). -- The MPC has revis...
Perspective on Monatary Policy Committee Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on Monatary Policy Committee Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: MOFSL Group
2024-08-08 03:05:43 pm
 Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Quote on Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   *  Headline inflation was 5.1% YoY in Jun'24, higher than the market consensus (and our forecast) of 4.8% and 4.8% each in the past three months. Details, however, are also not really concerning:   *  Vegetables drove higher inflation. CPI-inflation ex veg (weight = 94%) dropped further to 3.2% last month (vs 3.5% in May) *   ...
 Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
 Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services
2024-07-13 09:25:59 am
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group     No surprises again; Monetary easing still some time away May headline inflation came in at 4.75%, April IIP at 5%   Headline inflation was largely in line with the BMBG consensus and IIP growth was slightly better. Today's data will not change any views on India's monetary policy.   Some CPI details: -- Core inflation stood at ...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2024-06-13 10:25:39 am
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   RBI keeps policy rates unchanged FY25 growth projections revised up to 7.2% (from 7% earlier), inflation kept unchanged at 4.5% -- The Governor explicitly mentioned that the RBI does look at the global Central Banks' policies, but the RBI's monetary policy is primarily determined by domestic fundamentals. This, as we have highlighted many a times, is the most a...
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2024-06-07 04:55:40 pm
Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   As expected, India's inflation was at 10-month low of 4.85% YoY in Mar'24 (BMBG consensus and our forecast of 4.9%), implying that inflation was 5.4% in FY24, the lowest in four years. Key details are as follows:   1) Core inflation was unchanged at 3.3% last month, while food inflation was 8.5% vs. 8.6% in Feb'24 2) Services inflat...
Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2024-04-13 01:58:59 pm
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the perspective on GDP Data  by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   Real GDP growth 8%+ for the third consecutive quarter in 3QFY24 Likely at 6.0% YoY in 4Q to achieve 7.6% in FY24; expect 5.5-6% growth in FY25 * In another pleasant surprise, India's real GDP grew 8.4% YoY in 3QFY24, compared to the market (and our) forecast of 6.5-7%. Further, last two quarters' growth was also revised up to 8.1% (from 7.7% earlier). FY22 growth...
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: PR Agency
2024-03-01 09:16:17 am
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group Below the perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group.   CPI details suggest that Standard core inflation (ex food & energy) was 3.7%, first sub-4% reading in almost four years  Imported items (weight = 12%) led to lower headline inflation, as it fell for the 10th successive month. Services inflation (weight = 23%) eased to new low of 3.2% YoY last month, the lowest in record (since...
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2024-02-13 10:37:35 am
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group Below the perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group   The RBI has kept monetary policy unchanged, as broadly expected, with no change in interest rates or policy stance (Both with 5-1 voting.) Further, the Governor again emphasized the importance of achieving a 4% inflation target. The Bank forecasts real GDP growth at 7% in FY25, with inflation at 4.5% vs. 7% and 5.4%, respectively in FY24. (FY25 growth forecast has been re...
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Perspective on MPC Announcement by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2024-02-08 12:09:58 pm
Perspective on CPI and IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group Below The perspective on CPI and IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group. Another month of great duo data Lower than expected inflation and better IIP growth to keep RBI task simpler -- Headline CPI inflation came in at 5.55% YoY in Nov'23, lower than the market consensus of 5.8% (and our forecast of 5.9%). Core inflation eased to 4.1%, though food inflation was at 3-month high of 8.7%. the details were also favorable: 1) CPI ex veggies was at...
Perspective on CPI and IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group
Perspective on CPI and IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group
Source: PR Agency
2023-12-13 11:25:41 am
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group Below the perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group.   India's 2QFY24 real GDP growth is a picture perfect Full-year FY24 growth to be revised up again to 6.5-6.6%   -- India's real GDP grew 7.6% YoY (yes, you read it right) in 2QFY24, much better than the BMBG consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 6.6%. real GVA growth was 7.4%.   -- As impressive the headline number is, the...
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Perspective on GDP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Source: PR Agency
2023-12-01 03:35:38 pm
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group Below the perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Group. Oct'23 headline inflation eased to 4.9% YoY Core inflation at 43-month low of 4.3% * Headline CPI-inflation eased to 4.9% YoY last month broadly in line with the market forecast of 4.8% and our expectation of 4.9% * Food inflation was unchanged at 6.6% YoY in Oct'23, implying the core inflation softened to 43-month of 4.3%. * Det...
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Perspective on CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Group
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2023-11-14 11:26:32 am
Perspective on RBI Monetary Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group. Below the perspective on?RBI Monetary Policy?by?Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group.MPC keeps interest rates unchangedUnchanged FY24 inflation forecast a surpriseAs expected, the MPC kept interest rates unchanged with the repo rate at 6.5%* Surprisingly, the inflation projection was kept unchanged at 5.4% for FY24. It means that the massive surge in veggies in Jul-Aug'23 didn't budge full-year CPI forecasts.?2QFY24 was raised a little to 6.4% (from 6.2% earlier), implying a forecas...
Perspective on RBI Monetary Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group.
Perspective on RBI Monetary Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group.
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
2023-10-06 02:49:01 pm
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Group Below?on?CPI & IIP Data?by?Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Group* Headline inflation came in at 6.8% YoY in Aug'23, lower than the market (and our) forecast of 7.1%.?Core inflation came in at 41-month low of 4.8% YoY vs 5% in Jul'23.?* Details of 299 sub-components confirm that?only 53.7% of the basket posted +5% YoY inflation, the lowest in 18 months and vs. 61.2% in Jan'23.?* Inflation in?core services?was unchanged at 3.9% YoY, lowest since Nov'19.?We be...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Group
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Group
Source: PR Agency
2023-09-13 10:36:26am