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Indian equity benchmarks are likely to make a cautious start on Thursday, weighed down by weak global cues. There may be some volatility in the markets due to the Nifty F&O expiry. However, foreign fund inflows may provide some support to the indices. According to exchange data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,240.55 crore on Wednesday. 

Some of the key factors to be watched:

RBI Governor warns of rising threats from money laundering, terror financing: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra raised concerns over threats from money laundering and terror financing to the national and global financial systems, which are continuously evolving and becoming more sophisticated.

India's GDP estimated to grow steadily at 6.5% in FY25: The Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance stated that Indian economy is estimated to achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds.

India, US in intense trade discussions: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that India and the US are currently engaged in active and intense trade discussions, aiming for a bilateral trade agreement by fall 2025. 

India's exports are bound to grow despite global uncertainties: Director General of Foreign Trade Santosh Kumar Sarangi said that India's exports are expected to grow despite global trade uncertainties. Steps like production linked incentive schemes are boosting domestic manufacturing and order books remain positive, suggesting a healthy growth rate for exports.

Coal stocks will be in focus: Ministry of Coal is poised to launch the 12th round of Commercial Coal Mine Auctions on March 27, 2025. This initiative marks another significant step toward enhancing domestic coal production, reducing imports, and ensuring long-term energy security for the nation.

On the global front: The US markets ended in red on Wednesday, amid significant weakness in the technology sector. Asian markets are trading mixed after the United States announced agreements with Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe passage in the Black Sea and ban military attacks by the two countries on energy facilities.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks halted their seven-day winning run and settled lower on Wednesday due to profit-taking in Oil & Gas, Realty and Healthcare shares. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 728.69 points or 0.93% to 77,288.50, and the CNX Nifty was down by 181.80 points or 0.77% to 23,486.85.   

Some of the important factors in trade:

S&P cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY26: S&P Global Ratings has cut India's GDP growth projections for the Fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) to 6.5 per cent as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalization. 

Resurgence of foreign fund inflows: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their buying streak for the third straight session on March 25, purchasing shares worth Rs 5,371.57 crore, according to exchange data.

India’s GDP likely to reach $4.27 trillion by end of 2025: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest data has showed that India’s GDP has doubled in size over last ten years. It said the country’s GDP at current prices was $2.1 trillion in 2015 and is expected to reach $4.27 trillion by the end of 2025, marking a 100 per cent increase in just ten years. 

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